CAF rule change boosts Nigeria’s 2026 World Cup qualification chances ahead of Lesotho clash 

Nigeria’s hopes of qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup have received a significant lift following a decision by the Confederation of African Football (CAF) to adjust the qualification criteria in response to Eritrea’s withdrawal from the ongoing campaign.

Eritrea’s exit left Group E with only five teams instead of six, creating an imbalance in the qualifying structure. To restore fairness, CAF, in collaboration with FIFA, has proposed a rule change that will see points earned against bottom placed teams excluded when comparing the best second placed teams across all groups.

In a circular dated March 14, 2025, and signed by CAF’s Director of Tournaments and Events, Samson Adamu, the body explained that the adjustment aligns with Article 11.5 of the FIFA World Cup 2026 Preliminary Competition Regulations. The new formula ensures that every group is assessed on an equal basis, even if a team withdraws or is disqualified.

Under the revised system, some countries currently occupying strong positions could lose points. Burkina Faso, DR Congo, Madagascar, and Gabon could each forfeit as many as six points, while Cameroon would lose four. In contrast, Nigeria, who earned only two points against bottom-placed Zimbabwe, could see their position improve significantly in the race for qualification.

The change could prove pivotal for the Super Eagles, who currently trail with 11 points below Benin Republic and South Africa with 14 points each in their group, but now stand a better chance of reaching the playoff stage.

With key fixtures against Lesotho and Benin Republic still to come, Nigeria will look to capitalise on the revised rule and strengthen their bid to return to the World Cup after missing out on the 2022 edition in Qatar.

The Super Eagles take on Lesotho today (Friday), by 5pm local time.

CAF said the adjustment was necessary to ensure fairness, transparency, and sporting integrity across the qualification process, adding that the move would prevent any team from gaining an unfair advantage due to uneven group sizes.

If adopted, the ruling could dramatically reshape Africa’s qualification landscape, and potentially reignite Nigeria’s dream of featuring on the global stage in Canada, Mexico, and the United States in 2026.