BH Survey: Nigerian politicians to spend N8.477trn on 2027 elections

 • It promotes corruption in public office – Experts

Nigerian politicians running for offices in the 2027 general elections will spend, at least, a combined average sum of  N8.5trillion to realize their political ambitions, according to Business Hallmark’s estimates.

The estimate is based on the breakdown of the major expenses needed to run parties primaries and campaigns for the sole presidential seat, 28 governorship, 109 senatorial, 360 House of Representatives and 36 states’ Houses of Assembly seats that’ll become vacant on May 29th 2027.

Eight states that conduct off-cycle elections outside the general election schedule, Ondo, Ekiti, Osun, Anambra, Imo, Edo, Bayelsa and Kogi, are left out of the calculation.

With elections in Nigeria increasingly turning into a bazaar for the highest bidders, the 2027 campaign is expected to break the 2023 record of about N5 trillion.

It is estimated that the two frontline parties in the 2015 presidential election, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) spent over N100 billion each on primaries, delegates, media, and campaign expenses alone.

This figure is arrived at by aggregating figures from the advertising and media industries, as well as estimates for expenses like lobbying delegates during party primaries, campaign posters and allowances to agents on election day.

Meanwhile, under-the-table expenses deployed towards buying over opinion moulders, influencers and voters, which are largely undeclared, are also excluded.

Counting the Cost

For instance, a presidential candidate reportedly spent $30,000 on each of the 774 PDP delegates during the build-up to the 2023 presidential election. Many delegates had confirmed receiving the largesse to BH at the venue of the primary back in 2023.

Summed up, the amount paid by the aspirant to the 774  delegates that participated in the primary alone amounts to $23,220,000 (N35.411billion in today’s exchange rate).

According to the analysis of past electioneering expenses and the estimates of financial experts with knowledge of political budgets, it cost as much as $1 to $2 billion to prosecute a boisterous presidential campaign. This translates to between N1.025 trillion to N3.050 trillion at today’s official exchange rate of N1,525/$.

In an interview published by The Africa Report, a Paris-based English-language quarterly magazine that focuses on African politics and economics in February 2015, the Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company, Bismarck Rewane, said any aspirant without, at least, $2 billion war chest was wasting his or her time.

“What you need for a presidential election in Nigeria is, at least, $2 billion. So, you need about N300-N400 billion (2015 exchange rate). If not, you’re getting nowhere.

“In 1999, the military funded the campaign of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) because they planned it and said that General Olusegun Obasanjo (retd) must come back.

“The other guys didn’t have any money. Obasanjo’s second term was funded by bankers and oligarchs, those who benefited from his economic policies.

“In 2007, the Umaru Yar’Adua campaign was funded by the governors: James Ibori and others. In 2011, it was funded by the fuel subsidy boys, and that’s why they wanted to get their money back, so they were given oil blocks and all sorts of things.

“In 2015, the jury is out as to who funded it. It’s the upstream (petroleum industry) boys who are supposed to fund it, the people who got the allocations of oil mining licences (OMLs),” Rewane had said back in 2015.

Meanwhile Reuters, a news wire service, gave a much conservative estimate of $1 billion as the amount needed by a candidate to prosecute a credible presidential campaign in Nigeria.

Also, a presidential aspirant in the 2023 poll on the platform of the PDP, Chief Dele Momodu, lamented how he spent several millions of naira without a single vote in the election, vowing never to repeat the same mistake.

“No, I will never run for election again. Experience is the best teacher and I have come to realize that there are powers you can describe as principalities that control Nigeria.

“If a major political party decides to adopt me through a consensus that Dele Momodu is best suited to change and lead Nigeria, then I can consider it.

“But if I have to pick my money to go and buy a presidential nomination form of about N100 million and the last one I spent about N50 million buying the form. This could have gotten me a property and it was a waste, nobody voted for me – not even one vote because everything was monetized.

“There was one of the candidates, who paid as high as $30,000 per delegate and we had 774 delegates, so how do you compete with them? They have stolen the country blind and doing all kinds of deals to make money, especially those in the oil-rich areas.

“It’s not easy and that’s why you can’t compete with them – that’s why they insult Nigerians anyhow because of the amount of money available to them in raw cash.

“The bulk of their money is not in any bank, so they are not traceable. If today you ask some politicians that, look, you need $500 million to become a president, they will find it. So people like us, where will I start from?”

Capability of 2027 Hopefuls

However, only three of the presidential hopefuls in the 2027 poll, incumbent President Bola Tinubu, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Anambra State governor, Peter Obi, are believed to have the capacity to raise such a huge amount.

While the incumbent, President Bola Tinubu and former vice president Atiku Abubakar are believed to have huge nest of funds already stashed away from their  investments in oil and gas, construction, tax consultancy, real estate and shipping businesses, the candidate of Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 polls, Peter Obi, is said to be far behind and can not realistically muster the amount on his own without going bankrupt.

However, BH learnt that the former Anambra governor has enough goodwill and political clout to raise the money from friends, business associates, and supporters from all over the world, especially Diaspora Nigerians.

“Don’t ever underestimate (Peter) Obi. Though, he can’t favourably compete with Tinubu and Atiku financially as they are not in the same league, he can easily raise $500 million and above  needed to run a credible campaign. And this money won’t come from his pockets, but from admirers, who believe in him, which is how funding should be raised.

“But I think winning the election, like previous ones, will still come down to who can spend the most to compromise the system. That’s why I will give the contest to the sitting president. Though his actual worth is hidden, he should be among the richest in the country”, said a political strategist to a former presidential aspirant, who did not want his identity in print.

With the president, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi believed to be in a position to raise $1billion each, and other aspirants like and Rotimi Amaechi coming up with a combined $500 million, political pundits puts the estimated expenses for the 2027 presidential election alone at $3.5 billion to $4 billion (N5.34 trillion to N6.1 trillion).

Godfathers in the States

Apart from presidential contests, governorship elections in the country are also money guzzlers with a candidate needing an average of N25 billion to run a strong campaign, according to different estimates gotten from sources in the campaign offices of past and present aspirants.

BH gathered that campaign expenses in more prosperous and battleground states like Lagos, Rivers, Delta and Akwa Ibom can rise to N100 billion and above.

According to a public analyst, Jide Bakare, that’s why political contests in these economically vibrant states always end up being a ‘do or die affair’.

“You see governors rushing to host professional bodies and associations’ conferences and conventions and you think it is for nothing? Most people don’t know it, but that’s how vote buying starts.

“Strong bodies and professional bodies like the NMA, NBA and NUJ are surreptitiously bought over by governors, who single-handedly sponsor their events.

“Delegates and participants are accommodated, feed, transported to and from the host states free during the course of the events. Some even collect envelopes filled with money.

“Tell me, how are they going to speak out or work against such generous governors? We all remember the controversy from the spat between the Rivers State sole administrator and the leadership of the NBA over his demand that the NBA returned the N300 million given to it by suspended Governor Fubara as support for the NBA conference relocated to Enugu.

“Had the NBA not moved the conference to Enugu from Port Harcourt as initially slated, no one would have heard about the released funds, which the NBA refused to release. And I am sure there will be other expenses borne by the aggrieved state in the form of transportation, hotel and logistics costs for participating delegates and participants.

“What happened in Rivers is not an isolated case. It is happening in all the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT)”, Bakare said.

He added that high cost of elections is the real root of corruption among public officials, and the frequent crisis in states over god-fatherism, because people who spend money in elections must find a way to recoup it back from government contracts.

Using the lower campaign expenses cap for the two leading governorship aspirants in each of the 36 states of the federation, N50 billion (N25 billion multiplied by two), the figure comes down to N900 billion.

Likewise, a senatorial and House of Representatives aspirant, BH learnt, needs at least N1.5 billion to N2 billion to run a strong campaign, and pursue the usual judicial process to conclusion.

Large chunk of the funds are deployed towards the purchase of empowerment tools like bicycles, motorcycles, electricity generators, grinding machines, sewing machines, tricycles and mini buses for local voters.

In the same vein, candidates competing for the 36 states houses of assembly will spend a combined N1 trillion on campaign expenses, and legal fees of lawyers on average estimates by political campaign experts suggest.

Elections Economy

Using the lower band of N1.5 billion naira for the two leading candidates that will be contesting the 109 senatorial?  360 house of Representatives and 36 states houses of assembly seats in 2027, the estimated expenses comes down to N2.407 trillion.

Summing up the lowest  bands of N5.34 trillion, N900 billion and N2.5 billion spendings for the presidential, governorship, National Assembly and states House of Assembly respectively, politicians running for the 2027 polls will shell out N8.477trillion, which represents about 27 percent of Nigeria’s 2025 budget of N54.99trillion to get votes.

The Electoral Act 2022, meanwhile, pegged the total amount a presidential candidate can spend on elections at N5 billion; N1 billion for governorship candidates; N100 million for senatorial;  N70 million for House of Representatives races and N30 million for state assembly and local council chairperson campaigns.

The fear now is that politicians cannot continue to spend 27 percent of the annual budget of government every four years without destroying the economy, which has been on clutches for over a decade, growing at a meagerly average of three percent, when experts estimate above 10 percent growth rate to overcome present challenges.

It will also continue to encourage corruption in public office as elected officials plot how to retain their positions and to become godfathers after leaving office.