Dangers loom ahead of 2027 polls 

...as stalled electoral reforms, attacks on opposition, voter registration  fraud signal crisis 

With barely two years to the next general elections, observers say ominous clouds are gathering over Nigeria’s democratic space. The 2027 polls, far from being an improvement on the shortcomings of 2023, they say, could entrench a deeper crisis of credibility, fairness, and legitimacy unless urgent steps are taken to address glaring lapses in the electoral process, security of opposition, and integrity of voter registration.

While democracy thrives on competitive elections, accountability, and respect for the will of the people, recent developments suggest the road to 2027 is being paved with minefields. At the heart of the problem lies the persistent failure to implement robust electoral reforms, growing signs of government intolerance, and allegations of voter registration manipulation.

Electoral reforms on the edge

The 2023 elections were meant to herald a new dawn of credibility with the deployment of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and electronic transmission of results. Nigerians embraced these innovations as game changers after years of flawed elections. But when push came to shove, the system buckled under political pressure.

Contrary to repeated assurances from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), results of the presidential election were not transmitted from polling units in real time as promised. BVAS, hailed as a bulwark against rigging, was widely bypassed in certain areas without reasons and consequences. The courts compounded the problem by ruling that electronic transmission and BVAS usage were not mandatory, leaving many voters disillusioned.

The backlash was predictable. Civil society organisations, opposition parties, and democracy advocates demanded urgent reforms to tighten the law, making BVAS and electronic transmission compulsory. But those calls have largely fallen on deaf ears. The National Assembly has been sitting on a raft of proposed amendments to the Electoral Act, including clauses to compel INEC to transmit results electronically from the polling unit.

Instead of acting decisively, analysts say lawmakers appear more interested in cosmetic changes, such as creating a Political Parties Registration and Regulatory Commission, or debating gender quotas, while ignoring the core issue of result transmission. The political elite, critics argue further, are unwilling to close the loopholes that favor their manipulation.

Dr. Sam Amadi, former chairman of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), and a respected public policy analyst, emphasizes that unless Nigeria’s democracy is reengineered through electoral credibility, its governance failures will persist. “The people no longer believe in elections. Democracy is not sustainable in a context, where the ballot is merely ceremonial. Electoral reform is not optional; it is existential,” he said.

For many, President Bola Tinubu’s body language reinforces this suspicion. While his government has paid lip service to electoral credibility, there is little indication of a strong push for reforms that will make BVAS sacrosanct and electronic transmission mandatory. Analysts warn that the absence of such provisions is an open invitation to brazen malpractice in 2027.

In a country where electoral fraud has long been a political tradition, failure to enshrine these safeguards means the mistakes of 2023, and worse, may be repeated. Recent state elections, including those in Edo and Ondo, by- elections in various states, and local government polls across the federation, have done little to inspire confidence. Reports of vote-buying, violence, and result tampering continue to dog the system.

“If we do not make electronic transmission of results mandatory, we are only deceiving ourselves,” noted a legal expert, Anthony Chidi. “The loophole used in 2023 will be used again in 2027. That is the reality.”

Dele Farotimi, a veteran activist lawyer, traces Nigeria’s electoral failures back to historical shortcomings. He recalls the 1993 elections, where votes were counted openly, and results declared in front of voters, with no reliance on technology.

“Votes were counted in front of everyone, and we knew the results before we left the polling station,” he reminisces. “Until those days of transparency are restored, technological reforms alone won’t fix the deeper issues of trust and legitimacy.”

A recurring concern among critics is whether Nigeria’s political leadership genuinely intends to pursue electoral reforms, or if these efforts are merely superficial. Many believe that current leaders, including President Tinubu, may be deliberately side-stepping reforms to maintain electoral advantage.

Shrinking opposition space

Beyond the mechanics of voting, many fear that the broader democratic environment is becoming increasingly hostile. Opposition voices appear to be under siege, with prominent figures either facing legal harassment, orchestrated media smear campaigns, or outright violence.

“When you look at what is happening in various political parties in Nigeria today, you don’t need to be told, no matter the amount of denial by whoever, including President Bola Tinubu, that they are not involved in destabilization efforts of opposition parties. It is incorrect,” alleged former Sokoto State governor, and current Senator representing Sokoto South Senatorial district of Sokoto State, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal.

In an interview on Channels Television’s Politics Today last week, Tambuwal accused the APC of allegedly orchestrating deliberate efforts to destabilize opposition parties. “I am not accusing them. I am saying they are involved in efforts aimed at destabilising opposition parties.”

Former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, also cried foul over what he described as a deliberate attempt by the Tinubu government to hound him into silence. The one-time APC power broker, who has since fallen out with the ruling establishment, alleged that security agencies have been deployed to intimidate him and his associates. This follows recent invasion of the venue of the inauguration of African Democratic Congress (ADC) officials in Kaduna last Saturday by political thugs.

El-Rufai is not alone. In Kebbi State, former Attorney-General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami, has also raised alarm over targeted political attacks. Ten vehicles in his convoy were last week Monday smashed in what he described as a targeted political attack. Malami is also part of the ADC coalition seeking to unseat Tinubu in 2027.

Speaking after the attack, Malami alleged that the violence was orchestrated by elements loyal to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state.

“It’s a painful act clearly linked to politics. Some thugs came out from the APC state headquarters armed with dangerous weapons and stones, attacking and destroying our convoy,” the former Attorney-General said.

However, reacting to the allegations, the APC’s Kebbi State Publicity Secretary, Isa Assalafy, distanced the party from the attack, insisting that the ruling party had no reason to resort to violence. “Kebbi is a peaceful state. No government that enjoys massive support from the people and is confident of victory in 2027 would want the peace of the state to be disrupted,” Assalafy said.

Similarly, former Interior Minister, Rauf Aregbesola, has endured sustained pressure, fuelling concerns that dissent within the ruling party, and the wider opposition, is being crushed ahead of 2027. A rally attended by the former Osun State governor, and current secretary of the ADC, in Sagamu, Ogun State, on August 14, where he was billed to lead the campaign for the party’s House of Representatives bye-election candidate, Solomon Osho, was allegedly disrupted by political thugs. His loyalists also alleged that there was a plot to eliminate him.

Also a political gathering of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in Lagos  on Saturday descended into chaos  after suspected thugs attacked  participants, leaving one person critically injured.

The violent incident coincided with the formal defection of Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, the Labour Party’s 2023 governorship candidate in Lagos, to the ADC.

However, Lagos APC spokesperson, Seye Oladejo, in an interview dismissed the allegation as baseless.

“The young man (Rhodes-Vivor) should grow up and learn how to play politics,” Oladejo said. “He is moving from one mess to the other. From the confusion in the PDP to the disorganization in the ADC, this has nothing to do with us. Is Rhodes-Vivour a threat that any one of us would want to waste our time paying attention to him? Of course, he is not.”

Dangerous Signals

Political observers say these incidents point to a dangerous build-up of hostilities ahead of what is expected to be a fiercely contested election. With the ADC positioning itself as an alternative to the APC and PDP, analysts believe its growing influence may be unsettling the ruling establishment in some states.

Journalist and public affairs analyst, Chris Kehinde Nwandu, was among those who sounded the alarm over the disturbing pattern of political attacks. “2027 may be bloody if this is not nipped in the bud,” Nwandu wrote on his verified social media page, recalling that he had raised similar concerns during a recent television programme.

“During my discussion on Journalists’ Hangout on Sunday, I raised my concern about the rising cases of violence, with the attack on Mallam Nasir El-Rufai’s ADC members in Kaduna. Yesterday it was another attack on the convoy of former AGF, Abubakar Malami, in Kebbi State. Is this a test of what to expect in 2027? God help us,” he warned.

These developments, many say, suggest that Nigeria’s political space is contracting. Critics warn that such high-handedness could breed apathy, delegitimize the process, and, ultimately, undermine the credibility of the next general elections.

“It is important to emphasize that dissent is vital to democracy. Criminalizing opposition, attacking reformist voices, and undermining peaceful civic engagement erode the foundations of our Republic. No government that resorts to intimidation and uses security agencies as weapons against perceived opponents can genuinely uphold democratic principles,” noted former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar.

“Without a doubt, Nigeria is dangerously close to slipping into authoritarian rule if these patterns of repression continue unabated. We cannot afford to return to an era marked by fear, silence, and impunity.”

Veteran Communist and administrator, Chief Tola Adeniyi, warned: “The signs are ominous. When you begin to neutralize internal dissent and criminalize opposition politics, you are laying the foundation for electoral authoritarianism. We saw this in Rivers during the emergency rule saga; we are seeing it again in the treatment of these political figures.”

Suspicious Voter Registration

As if these were not enough, allegations of manipulation in the ongoing voter registration exercise have added a fresh layer of anxiety. Opposition parties claim there is a systematic attempt to tilt the register in favor of the ruling party, particularly President Tinubu’s strongholds.

Although INEC insists the process is transparent, scepticism runs deep. The memory of underage voters mysteriously surfacing in past registers, and the lop-sided distribution of polling units continues to haunt the commission’s credibility.

An opposition spokesperson recently alleged that the current registration drive is skewed: “We have credible intelligence that some regions are being favored while others face artificial bottlenecks. This is how elections are rigged long before the first ballot is cast.”

In a statement recently by its National Publicity Secretary, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, the ADC alleged that the unusually high numbers recorded in the Southwest, particularly in Osun State, were troubling and required urgent clarification.

“According to INEC’s report, Osun State alone recorded 393,269 pre-registrations within seven days. For context, the state added only 275,815 new voters between 2019 and 2023, a period of four years. Now, in just one week, Osun has supposedly registered more people than it did in an entire electoral cycle,” Abdullahi said.

“Even during its peak political mobilization in 2022, Osun never produced more than 823,124 votes in the governorship election. Yet, by some miracle, almost 20 percent of all eligible adults in the state have rushed to register in a single week. This is not only unusual; it is statistically implausible,” the statement added.

The party also highlighted regional disparities, noting that the Southwest alone accounted for 848,359 pre-registrations – about 67 percent of the national total. In stark contrast, the entire Southeast recorded just 1,998, while the Northeast contributed 6.1 percent.

“Three states – Osun, Lagos, and Ogun – account for 54.2 percent of all pre-registrations nationwide. Meanwhile, five states combined – Ebonyi, Imo, Enugu, Abia, and Adamawa – barely recorded 4,153, or 0.2 percent of the total,” Abdullahi observed.

Analysts say if these claims hold water, they pose an existential threat to Nigeria’s democracy. Inflated registers, disenfranchisement of certain demographics, and the weaponization of technology could hand undue advantage to one political bloc even before campaigns begin, they warn.

Reform Before Elections

Proponents of reform argue that time still exists to salvage the situation. The National Assembly is currently considering several bills seeking to amend the Electoral Act. Among them are proposals for diaspora voting, independent candidacy, gender representation, and the establishment of a Political Parties Registration and Regulatory Commission.

While these are laudable, observers say, they do not address the elephant in the room – the non-mandatory nature of BVAS and electronic transmission.

Former INEC chairman, Prof. Attahiru Jega, had in earlier debates, championed the need for airtight legal frameworks to protect the integrity of results. Civil society groups share this sentiment, warning that technology without legal force is a toothless bulldog.

The irony, however, is that many of the politicians, who benefit from the current loopholes are the same ones expected to enact these reforms. This raises fundamental questions: Will they legislate themselves out of power? Or will Nigerians continue to endure a vicious cycle of flawed elections and disputed mandates?

On the issue of political intimidation, democracy advocates insist that security agencies must remain neutral. The police, EFCC, and DSS cannot be instruments of regime survival; they must be arbiters of law and order. Without impartial security, elections become a war of attrition, rather than a contest of ideas.

Observers demand the publication of detailed regional data, open access to monitoring platforms, and severe penalties for staff, who compromise the process. Anything short of this will reinforce suspicions that the register is being weaponized for partisan advantage.