The road to Venezuela, By Michael Ovienmhada

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine grinds on, much of the world hurts, but, I wonder why. Between Russia and Ukraine, both countries are responsible for only 13% of the world’s wheat supply. The world still has 87% unaffected.

Why are prices therefore trending more upward than they should, considering what small effect it ought to have? This is a question for economists and supply chain experts to answer. The palpable pain from inflation induced by the war in Russia goes beyond the obvious. I have a deep sense that poverty around the world is probably deeper than we imagined, and the war in Ukraine has only served to reveal its true underbelly.

Is much of the world getting poorer faster than statisticians are able to capture?

The war is not going well for Russia. All of their early expectations of a swift, and crushing victory have been dashed. In desperation, Russia is destroying civilian infrastructure—water and electricity across Ukraine, but the people are not letting up. They are inspired to dig in for the long haul especially as they have seen that the Russians are not invincible after all. Russia should be dining at the table with the big boys. Just take a look at the friends they now keep—-Iran and North Korea.

Lordy, how did Russia come to such a pass?

Putin is educated. He studied law. Putin worked in government all his adult life. He grew through the ranks, and so, it may be safe to assume that he understands how the system works. He was a major factor in reconstructing Russia after the USSR collapsed. Having built huge foreign reserves of over $700 billion, investors had begun to flock to Russia as the new frontier with a sizzling middle class.

Putin did not need this war. It may be time for him to admit that it was a mistake. It is time to pull out.

It was Kenny Rogers that sang: Every gambler knows the secret to surviving—is knowing what to throw away and knowing what to keep. If Putin will listen, someone close to him may need to play him, the Gambler. He has thrown away enough already.

Last week, I took advantage of early voting in Georgia to vote in the midterm election just as I did in November 2020 at the presidential election. The voting procedure is simple. You walk in. You present your photo ID at one of several desks. The election officer verifies that you are eligible to vote in that County. They present you with an electronic ballot card that looks like an ATM card. You walk up to the voting booth. You identify all the individuals you want to vote for. When you complete the voting process, you can press a button that allows you to review your choices. If you are satisfied, you press complete. A piece of paper is printed out which you take to another machine. Once you slot it into the machine, you have effectively transmitted your votes to a central system. The paper you put in gives your vote a paper trail.

Given the ease and efficiency of the voting system, it must leave the average reasonable person to wonder why candidates of a particular party, in a bid to outdo each other in spewing fiction, say they do not trust the system but they would only accept the results if they win.

Can anyone really have it both ways?

I voted Democrat Stacy Abrams for governor, but I voted Raffensperger, a Republican, for Secretary of State. He is a special guy. Had he not stood his ground, the world would never have found out that someone was looking for 11,780 votes in an hour’s long call that was the stuff of mafia movies—beg, cajole, threaten.

Is this America?

On the other hand, if you are a Nigerian, there are already many things to worry about regarding the state of the nation. If we now add to that, the recent idea to redesign and print new Naira notes side by side threats from terrorists to invade Abuja, and the runaway foreign exchange rates, then, indeed, there may be cause to start to flee to the hills and to the mountains for safety. The scenario of the Naira falling N1000 to $1 did not happen overnight. Alarm bells had been ringing through the years for the need to diversify the Nigerian economy, but leader after leader either paid deaf ears to these cries, or they simply did not know what to do. Here we are, finally on the road to Venezuela.

Is there anything that can be done in the short run to avert a total calamity?

I think so.

We are not a nation under sanctions, and so, unlike Venezuela, we have latitude, we have options, and we can get help.

In history, it is not unusual for us to read the expression—“the last straw that broke the Camel’s back.” For Nigeria, the last straw that’s sending the Naira into a free fall is Uncertainty. Every economy is made up of people, but the divergent needs of 200 million people converge at the point of safety. This is the great leveler between the beggar and the Prince. The moment there is uncertainty, the life of the prince may fall into the hands of a beggar slugging an AK47.

Nigeria is at a crossroads.

Does anyone still think we are not ripe for State Police?

This can be a parting gift from the current administration.

Deep in the heart of the Amazon, a familiar playbook is playing out. An incumbent lost a reelection bid but he has refused to concede. He says however, that the transition may proceed. Bad examples are like a cascade. Everything in front tumbles. Good behavior may soon become the outlier in the corridors of the people everyone ought to be looking up to, for example.
Time spent in prison by the incoming President, it is hoped, may have helped him become a better man. We look with hope to a greater dance for progress with the Samba nation.

On a sad note, our beloved superstar, David Adeleke, better known as Davido lost his son, Ifeanyi, last week. May God give his family the strength to bear this terrible loss. Joylessly, 390 children between ages 1-4 drown in swimming pools every year in the United States. Swimming pools are better utilized in public spaces where several people are present, and many eyes pay attention. An exclusive swimming pool in a private home, especially one with children is an undesirable luxury.

In 1989, I traveled within Nigeria to pay my condolences to a family who had lost their 9-month old child to drowning in a bucket of water in their home. After setting things ready to give their son a bath, the mother left for a moment to attend to food on the fire. It can only be imagined for a minute if it was a nanny that was in charge of the child when that accident happened!

Our best wishes go out to the family of a newly minted Nigerian-born General of the US Army, Amanda Azubuike. Thank you, for making us proud.

As you begin a new week, may Adonai, King of the universe, shine a light in your path that you may not stumble.

Michael (O’meekey) Ovienmhada.
Author, Poet, Playwright, and Public Affairs Commentator. [email protected]