Nigeria’s crude output drops to 5-month low as petroleum products import bill swells to N4trn in six months

…Dangote imports 60m barrels of crude

Nigeria’s crude oil production has slumped to a five-month low, even as the country’s import bill for petroleum products soared to over N4 trillion in the first half of 2025, underscoring the fragile state of the nation’s energy security.

Fresh data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) showed that Nigeria’s output fell to 1.43 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, its lowest since March, representing a 4.7 per cent month-on-month decline. The figure is also below the country’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd.

At the same time, statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that petrol imports alone cost N2.3 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, up from N1.76 trillion in the first quarter. This brought the half-year total to N4.06 trillion. When other fuels are included, mineral fuel imports in Q2 rose to N4.42 trillion, accounting for nearly 29 per cent of Nigeria’s total imports.

Ironically, the 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery, built to end decades of dependence on imported fuels, has itself resorted to importing crude oil due to Nigeria’s supply constraints. Dangote Group President, Aliko Dangote, disclosed in July that the refinery now imports between 9 and 10 million barrels of crude monthly from the US and other countries. By mid-year, total imports had climbed to an estimated 60 million barrels.

Analysts say the twin realities, declining local crude output and ballooning refined fuel imports, expose Nigeria’s failure to meet both export obligations and domestic refinery demand. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), which manages most of the country’s crude, continues to prioritise foreign exchange yielding exports over local supply, leaving refineries to rely on imports.

The situation deepens the paradox of Africa’s largest oil producer, which despite holding vast crude reserves, remains heavily dependent on imports for domestic fuel consumption.

Nigeria’s 2025 budget is benchmarked on 2.06 million bpd (including condensates) at $75 per barrel. Persistent shortfalls in output and import-driven capital flight pose significant risks to government revenue and foreign exchange stability.