Results of 2019 polls signposts turbulence ahead

Before last Presidential election, the verdict on the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari was harsh. His scorecard in all areas were unimpressive. The nation’s economy is in a very bad shape. Unemployment is at the highest level ever. It is now 23% (38 million). It was 8% (11 miilion) during the administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan. Youth employment on the other hand is now 64%.

Nigeria is now the poverty capital of the world behind, with 81 million people below poverty line.

Though, the president launched a vicious attack against the Boko Haram sect and to a very large extent weakened the dreaded sect, the extremist group has regrouped and has continued to launch vicious attacks against military and civilian targets.

Kidnappings and thefts by bandits, as well as attacks by Fulani herdsmen on settlers across the country have also undermined the president’s pledge to secure the country. Also, the president’s anti-corruption fight is in tatters.

There are allegations that the fight is only against the president’s enemies. His critics named several politicians like Godswill Akpabio, Iyiola Omisore, Musiliu Obanikoro and Orji UzorKalu, among others, that are facing corruption charges, but are shielded from prosecution because they had defected to the president’s party.

The president’s sins are many and the general consensus among Nigerians is that he has failed so woefully. Owing to these shortcomings, many projected his second term is well beyond his and the All Progressives Party (APC’s) grasp.

They were supported by many local and foreign pollsters who claimed the opposition Peoples Democratic (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, may win the election.

However, for all the hoopla over the president’s ‘incompetence’ among Nigerians, he trounced his closest challenger, Atiku Abubakar, in the official results announced by the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Mahmood Yakubu on Tuesday night.

Business Hallmark examined the reasons why Buhari won the election against general expectations. One major reason is number. The APC strongholds of North West, North East and Southwest have the highest number of registered voters who have collected their PVCs. The Southeast and South South where anti-Buhari sentiments are pretty strong, couldn’t match the numerical advantage.

Out of the 72.7 million collected PVCs as of February 2019, the Northwest had a total of 18,505,984 voters while the Southeast had 8,593,093. The North central had 10,786,965, while the North east zone had 10,229,015. The Southwest had the second highest number of PVCs collected with 14,926,800. The South South as a whole had 11,401,093 collected PVCs.

Despite the massive social media outbursts, when the North votes, it often votes massively and in a one-way direction. This is evident in Kano, Kaduna and Katsina where Buhari got over 1 million votes.

According to political analysts, the battle was lost the moment the North and Southwest settle for Buhari again.“Though, Atiku got massive votes in the Southwest, Buhari still won because the structure on ground has being appropriated by the pro-Buhari forces led by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. Tinubu and his men deployed all available resources at their disposal to ensure Buhari’s victory, despite the seemingly obvious split among voters.

“While the South Southhas a massive voting population, they could not count for Atiku largely because of apparent voter’s apathy and deliberate disenfranchisement. Most Niger Delta voters were not encouraged to come out to vote because they thought they don’t have a stake in the election owing to the emergence of two leading Fulani Muslim contenders, unlike in 2015 when their own son, Goodluck Jonathan, was a candidate in the poll.

AkwaIbom, Rivers and Delta States alone had delivered over five million votes to the former president in the last election.

“Also, due to alleged deliberate act by agents of the Federal Government, millions of voters, who evidently would have voted for Atiku due to primordial sentiments did not exercise their voting rights on the election day.

“These and other factors set the stage for President Buhari’s reelection”, said Dr. Tunde Bodunjo, a lecturer of political science at the Ogun State University, Ago-Iwoye.

The second major factor that aided Buhari’s reelection is the strong ethnic and nationalistic feelings in the Northern part of the country. To an average Northern Muslim, the zone comes first, no matter the justification for his decision or not. BH gathered that to an average northerner, Buhari represents their best interest.

“He is still much loved on the streets of the north. Everywhere Buhari visits in the North, surging crowds chanting ‘sai Baba’ swarmed around him. They delve into frenzy each time the president puts his fist up. For all his faults, Buhari still remains a huge factor in the politics of the North.

“Most of the lawmakers and governors from APC controlled states got voted in just because Buhari raised their hands at campaign rallies. The president enjoys a feral, cult following in the north and last Saturday’s election suggest that nothing has changed.

“Atiku did not also help matter during his campaigns with his promise to restructure Nigeria and sell off public institutions such as the NNPC. His positions on these issues are seen as anti-North by many Northern irredentists. The north relies mostly on these institutions for survival in form of appointments and empowerment.

“Atiku is also too broad minded to be trusted by an average northerner. While his people are rigid and not ready to yield in matters concerning the North, he is seen to be too liberal and uncontrollable.

“For instance, his major businesses are located in the South where he has close friends. Two of his wives are not from the north. In fact, his most influential wife, Titi,though a converted Muslim, is from Ilesa, in the South West. This, according to many northern conservatives, is a cardinal sin that is unforgivable.

“So, these ‘flaws’ on the part of Atiku were hyped and trumpeted in the North by his opponents during the last campaign, making voters to distrust him. He is a damaged product. Most northerners see him as pro-South”, declared Alhaji Gboyege Inaolaji, a chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Lagos.

Another major factor that contributed to Atiku’s defeat in the election was the lack of formidable opposition to the Buhari machine. Since the PDP lost the 2015 general elections, it has become a shadow of itself.The party had unsuccessfully spent the last three and half years trying to put its house in order after the 2015 defeat.

“By end of 2014, APC was already consolidated and ready to do battle, while much of opposition’s hope was built on the assumption that people are disappointed with Buhari and will automatically vote against him. Yet we know you don’t defeat an incumbent in Africa through wishful thinking. Anywhere an incumbent has lost, it is usually because the opposition played smarter,” said a newspaper columnist, Simon Kolawole.

Gales of defections had seriously affected the party. The APC was able to get massive votes in the South due to the mobilization of defected politicians like Senator Godswill Apkabio, Orji UzorKalu, Emmanuel Uduaghan, Timipre Sylva, and many others. The party is sustained by mostly governors and politicians from the South South and South East.

Unfortunately, due to the strong influence of persons such as Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers, Okowa of Delta, Emmanuel Udom of AkwaI bom, Dickson of Bayelsa and Igbo governors wield on the PDP, the party was labelled as the property of southern governors in the north. And the propaganda worked perfectly in favour of the ruling APC.

Because the PDP couldn’t deploy the power of incumbency at the centre to protect its dominance in the two regions, it couldn’t protect its votes which shrank considerably compared to 2015 votes. The malaise of blatant allocation of electoral figures by those with the power to do so was also prevalent in the zones during the election.

For example, Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, got and unbelievable 72,000 votes for Buhari in his Ikwerre local government.

The anti-corruption war of the ruling APC also helped the party in trouncing the PDP in the election. BH findings revealed that though President Buhari’s anti-corruption agenda was scoffed at on social media, it however remained ingrained in many minds on the streets.

Many Nigerians thirst for blood and Buhari gave it to them through the lopsided prosecution of corrupt politicians, mostly from the opposition.

While Nigerians are still angry with the PDP over alleged corrupt practices while in government for 16 years, Atiku committed a blunder by promising to pardon all corrupt politicians in voted into power. His pronouncement further confirmed the notion that if Atiku gets to power, he and his corrupt party would sell off the country and continue the stealing bazaar.

The close monitoring of campaign finances by the anti-graft agency, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), particularly that of opposition parties, also deprived the PDP that opportunity of launching carnivals of street parades and media blitz.

The opposition didn’t play his cards well since it lost power 2015, thus giving Buhari the edge in last Saturday’s poll.