2027: The inconvenient truth for Obidients

Undoubtedly, 2027 is essentially about Mr. Peter Obi. Whichever way you look at it, Obi remains the most critical factor in the eventual outcome, a situation that imposes very onerous and daunting responsibility on his choices and actions. It’s such a precarious position that is akin to the devil’s alternative.

Intriguingly, a slew of revisionism of the 2023 election outcome has been peddled by some of those, who were perpetrators and instigators of what happened, to the effect that Obi won the election. How is that of any consolation and significance to the millions of Nigerians, especially the youths, who had put their hope for change in that election? Their motive is not ennobling to advance Mr. Obi’s political ambition, and the desire of Nigerians.

President Bola Tinubu, as the incumbent, is not likely to win reelection on performance record, a golden opportunity for any serious opposition to take him out, as was the case with former president Jonathan. But, unlike the earlier case, the opposition is fractured and weak, and, therefore, cannot mount a credible and strong challenge to Tinubu, who is a political  juggernaut, and master strategist.

Doing the same thing

Former vice president Atiku Abubakar is, arguably, the strongest person amongst the opposition leaders, and one that can stand toe to toe with the president without being intimated and cowed; but alone against the president, he is toast. If PDP had fought together in 2023 with an Atiku-Obi ticket, the outcome would have been completely different.

But they didn’t, and here we are again, with almost a similar scenario, which promises, predictably, to produce a similar outcome. Unlike 2023, when Atiku’s blunder gave away the victory to APC in spite of their miserable and atrociously abysmal performance under late president Buhari, Obi is the spotlight in 2027, and his actions, or lack of it, will decide the election outcome.

In the same vein, Obi, though a favorite candidate in terms of public appeal and age advantage, alone is no match against Tinubu at any time. Those thinking otherwise are merely being over-optimistic, naive, and sentimental. So, what are his options?

INEC’s Greek gift

Recently, INEC gave Obi an unexpected gift by de-recognizing the Julius Abure led-faction of the Labor Party, who had constituted a stumbling block to the party’s unity and effectiveness, resulting in the defection of many of its elected office holders. What could one make of this?

Coming four months after the Supreme Court judgment clearly sacking Abure, INEC’s belated implementation of the judgment shows that its action is premeditated, and intended, ostensibly, to solve Obi’s problem by providing him his own platform,, and an alternative, to either PDP or ADC. However, in reality, it further complicates his dilemma of choice.

This obviously demonstrates two things about INEC going forward: it is an interested party in the 2027 election, and will act in favor of the incumbent; and therefore, should not be trusted to be fair to all; this would work more against Obi, as an Igbo, than Atiku, a Fulani.

Obi’s Gordian’s Knot

For Mr. Obi, there are basically three choices for him, but only one has the likelihood of getting him to the presidency. However, that option appears to be his most difficult, and unlikely choice, given the political dynamic of his  electoral support base – the Obidients group. The first option is to return to the PDP, as being canvassed by some Northern party chieftains, because of its much-vaunted structures that have been unable to change its political fortunes since 2015. After all, he ran on its platform in 2019 with Atiku.

However, this would be a terrible political misstep for several reasons. One, the PDP is controlled by Nyesom Wike, a Tinubu supporter, who will worked against any candidate of the party. Two, the November convention of the party will not resolve its present difficulties; in fact, it will compounded them.

Three, PDP of 2023 has been considerably weakened, and cannot repeat its precious electoral performance, having lost such states as Rivers, Delta, Akwa Ibom, while Osun, Enugu, and Bayelsa are hanging on the balance. So, it is only in the North that PDP still exists. Lastly, PDP is practically a walking shell of its old self, and cannot be the platform to win the 2027 election.

Obi’s control of Labor Party, which INEC has formalized by sacking Abure, as already stated, is a Greek gift, and even a worse choice than PDP. Like PDP, LP has lost a lot of its political goodwill and strength due to the leadership crises that had bedeviled it since 2023, with several of its elected members defecting to APC.

Secondly, Obi cannot defeat Tinubu on his electoral strength alone; if he can’t do it with PDP, a far bigger platform, it is wishful thinking to imagine otherwise with LP. Again, the sack of Abure by INEC may not be the end of the problems in the party and, therefore, could be a trap to lure him into a cul de sac.

The Inconvenient Truth

This leaves Obi with only one viable choice to ever realize his ambition of winning the presidency, but to his ardent supporters – the Obidients group –  a foreclosed choice that may dissolve their association with him, a purely mistaken and unrealistic reading of politics, generally described as a game of the possible.

Without joining forces with Atiku to fight this political behemoth, 2023 will be repeated, and Nigeria will be the worse for it. Only a combined ticket of Atiku and Obi running together would shake up the status quo; otherwise, forget it, because it will amount to nothing. There’s also the incumbency factor that makes the challenge doubly daunting.

The Obidients must focus on the objective, rather than the vehicle, or means. There’s nothing to accuse Atiku of that Tinubu is not twice worse. So, if Tinubu could be president with all the baggages, why not Atiku, who was thoroughly investigated by Obasanjo without any proof, because if he had one, Atiku, surely, would have been jailed.

If the objective is just to run, Obi is free to choose LP, or PDP, or even both combined, as it were; however, it will be a wasted effort. But if it is to win the election, the ADC or any other party, and running with Atiku remains his best chance. A coalition of LP and ADC will be a more formidable force to confront APC, expected to be very vicious, more than before, in this election.

At 80, the Obidients should extract a commitment from Atiku to do one term, and then, support Obi to succeed him. Half bread, they say, is better than none. In Nigeria today, no other candidate, beside Obi, can give Atiku the clout and leverage to oust this government, as their combined ticket will be the strongest to face Tinubu.

It was cardinal blunder by Atiku to have overlooked Obi in 2023. And here is another chance.