U.S may target Nigeria’s crude oil export

.           Expert warn of more sanctions over diplomatic spat

These are not the best of times in the diplomatic relations between the United States and Nigeria. Perhaps, this is the lowest point since the former presidents Goodluck Jonathan and Barack Obama preceding the 2015 elections, which America had the opposition over Nigeria’s refusal to approve same sex legislation.

Exactly a decade after, relations are once again fraying, almost close to busting at the diplomatic seams of it for tat.

The immediate cause for this new low, according to experts and observers, may not be unconnected with the reluctance of the President Tinubu’s administration to accede to the White House demand that Nigeria take in some migrant-refugees from the United States, some of whom are reported to have criminal record and serving prison terms.

It was  gathered  that the U.S has reportedly been pressuring several countries, especially in Africa and Central America, to serve as temporary dumping grounds for migrants and asylum seekers whose applications are pending in the U.S, a process that can drag on for as long as seven years.

In this situation if escalating diplomatic rupture, it was learnt that the U.S may up the ante against Nigeria by imposing more penalties, this time, perhaps, restriction on import of Nigeria’s crude, the main of the economy, which would have devastating effect of the country.

Trade Tariffs and Immigration

While some countries have agreed, Nigeria has refused to be part of the arrangement. President Trump

typically raised the bar in negotiations by slamming very high tariffs on the other party until he gets the better part of the bargain.

Although, the Liberation Day declaration in April had focused on bilateral trade agreements over tariffs, he seems to link trade with others issues critical to U.S interest. Trade Tariffs and Immigration are the principal policies of his second term, and these are strictly, according to him, based on reciprocity.

He second coming has witnessed a continuation of his previous anti-immigration policy, and his determination to rid the country of all undocumented immigrants, especially those from South and Central America.

He has been applying this strategy in his tariff war with a number of countries. And Nigeria should expect more punitive actions from Trump over Tinubu’s hard stance on  Venezuelan asylum seekers. Nigerians were taken aback last week when the U.S. in Nigeria released a new visa guideline, which scrapped the three to five year single entry, thus making it mandatory for any Nigerian visa applicant to seek fresh approvals regardless of how often or long the person has been traveling to the U.S.

However, while speculations were rife, the minister of External Affairs, Mr. Yusuf Tuggar, in a television interview, explained that there had been a poisoned undercurrent between the two countries, which centered on the issue of Venezuelan refugees.

Indications that the Trump administration is not favourably disposed to Abuja became evident when Trump invited five African nations leaders to The White House recently, excluding Nigeria and South Africa, two important power houses on the continent with much larger economies and markets.

Trump’s  White House guests include the leaders of Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal – all countries with small populations and economies. The took place while Nigeria was attending the BRICS summit.

In fact, there were insinuations that the visa ban, which came in the wake of Nigeria’s attendance of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Turkey and South Africa), summit in Brazil, a political bloc of emerging markets that pursue alternative development strategies.

Crude Oil Target

Opinions amongst foreign policy experts and observers agree that Nigeria should prepare for more punitive actions by the U.S, since it (Nigeria) is quite vulnerable, especially in its trade relations with America. In this respect, they point to Nigeria’s crude oil export to the U.S, which has been rising since the conflict in the Middle East.

In April 2025, the U.S imported about 180000 barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil from Nigeria. On average for the year‑to‑date (YTD) 2025, the figure stands at around 110

thousand b/d. For comparison, in 2024, U.S. imports from Nigeria averaged roughly 154000 b/d . There was a notable spike: in the week ending May 23, 2025, weekly imports jumped to 364000 bpd, the highest since October 2019.

Speaking with Business Hallmark, a professor of international relations, Samson Adeyanju said “the BRICS factor can not be discounted, in addition to Tinubu’s refusal to admit to taking in refugees from Venezuela.

He said the growing tension if not thaw or ‘detente’ is not quickly sought may have far more implications for our oil export. “The highly unpredictable Trump may decide to hurt our oil as a form of pressure to force us into negotiations table and to accept his demand.

“This is what he has threatened to do to Spain over the country’s refusal to up its NATO contribution and increase its defence budget. He can decide to reduce import of Nigeria’s crude of 365000 weekly.”

David Banjo, a doctoral student of international relations told Business Hallmark that “Trump is petty and a hard negotiator, he negotiates best bargain for the United States, and sure, he is not going to let Nigeria get away with the snub of his demand. He will still come with more punitive trade tariffs to force Abuja to reconsider on asylum seekers. But Tinubu should not budge.

The U.S government last Wednesday disclosed  a revised visa policy for Nigerian citizens, reducing most non-immigrant and non-diplomatic visa categories—such as B-1/B-2 (tourist/business), F (student), and J (exchange)—to single-entry, three-month validity.

This was radical divergence  from the previous two to five years multiple-entry visas that Nigerians were eligible to receive.

Dousing The Tension

The U.S. Embassy in Abuja explained the decision as part of its global visa reciprocity policy, which is geared towards  ensuring that visa treatment of U.S. citizens is  reflected  by the host countries.

According to the embassy, Nigeria does not currently offer U.S. citizens visa terms equal to those previously granted to Nigerians, prompting the adjustment, a declaration now proved to be false.

The U.S.  noted that reciprocity, not retaliation, was the basis for the change.

Only  last Wednesday, a delegation of the Federal Government, led by the Minister of Interior, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, held a meeting with the U.S Ambassador to Nigeria, Richard Mills, on   the issue. This was before My. Tuggar let the cat out of the bad in Thursday.

According to the minister, the recent 10 percent tariff imposed on Nigeria by the Donald Trump administration was also likely a result of Nigeria’s refusal to accept the deportees, rather than its participation in a BRICS-related meeting.

Last  Friday, the US government further rationalized  the new visa policy, indicating it has come to stay.

In a statement on it Facebook page on Friday, the U.S Mission in Nigeria dispelled widespread misconceptions surrounding the policy.

It said the policy shift was not influenced by Nigeria’s stance on third-country deportees, the introduction of e-visa systems, or the country’s perceived affiliations with international blocs, such as BRICS.

Instead, the U.S. clarified that the decision forms part of a broader, global review of visa regimes based on technical and security benchmarks aimed at safeguarding the integrity of its immigration system.

Experts such as Professor Adeyanju said the US rationalization was a deceit, insisting that politics is behind the latest  subtle and covert hostility.  Many experts have, however, voiced their opinion on  the federal government’s response to the US visa restriction.

Although, some people called for retaliatory policies on the basis of  reciprocity, Ambassador Rasheed Akinkuolie, cautioned  against it,  saying that the U.S. policy under President Donald Trump is volatile,  unpredictable and subject to reversal.