By-elections: APGA dominates Anambra, APC sweeps Edo, PDP, NNPP record wins amid vote-buying, violence

Nigeria’s ruling and opposition parties tested their strength in Saturday’s by-elections across multiple states, with outcomes reaffirming entrenched political strongholds while also signalling subtle shifts that could shape alignments ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The All Progressives Congress (APC) consolidated its grip in several constituencies, sweeping Edo, Ogun, Kogi, and parts of Adamawa, while the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) reasserted dominance in Anambra.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) also recorded significant breakthroughs in Oyo and Kano respectively. But the exercise was far from flawless, marred by allegations of vote-buying, cash-for-votes arrests, and violent disruptions at some polling units.

APGA strengthens hold in Anambra

In Anambra, APGA secured a dual victory that cements its status as the state’s ruling party. Ifeoma Azikiwe won the Onitsha North 1 State Constituency seat with 7,774 votes, defeating ADC’s Justina Azuka, who polled 1,909. APC and YPP trailed behind with 1,371 and 655 votes.

The party’s bigger triumph came in the Anambra South Senatorial District, where Emmanuel Nwachukwu secured 90,408 votes to overwhelm APC’s Chief Azuka Okwuosa with 19,847. ADC’s Donald Amangbo finished third with 2,889. The seat became vacant following the death of Senator Ifeanyi Ubah in July 2024.

However, reports of brazen vote-buying cast a shadow over APGA’s victories. Voters in several communities alleged they were paid ₦10,000 each by party agents in exchange for their support, raising questions about the integrity of the mandate.

APC sweeps Edo, Ogun, Kogi

The APC demonstrated its enduring strength in the South-West, North-Central, and South-South. In Ogun State’s Remo Federal Constituency, Adesola Ayoola-Elegbeji retained the seat with 41,237 votes against PDP’s Bola Oluwole, who scored 14,324.

In Edo Central, APC’s Joseph Ikpea secured 105,129 votes to crush PDP’s Joe Okojie, who managed just 15,146. In Ovia Federal Constituency, Omosede Igbinedion recorded 77,053 votes, dwarfing PDP’s Johnny Aikpitanyi with 3,838. In Kogi, APC’s Hassan Shado also swept to victory in Okura State Constituency, amassing 55,073 votes compared to PDP’s 1,038.

The party added another narrow win in Adamawa, where Misa Musa captured the Ganye State Constituency with 16,923 votes, edging out PDP’s Buba Muhammad Joda, who trailed closely with 16,794.

PDP breakthrough in Oyo

The PDP’s most notable performance came in the South-West. Folajinmi Oyekunle reclaimed the Ibadan North Federal Constituency with 18,404 votes, defeating APC’s 8,312. It was the PDP’s first time winning the constituency since 2011, providing a morale boost for the opposition party, which has struggled to retain relevance after losing the presidency in 2015.

Analysts say the Oyo win underscores the PDP’s potential to regain ground in the South-West if it builds on local alliances and voter discontent with APC’s governance.

NNPP holds Kano base

In Kano, the NNPP demonstrated resilience despite federal pressure on its structures. Its candidate, Ali Alhassan (also known as Dr. Ali Kiyawa), won the Bagwai/Shanono State Constituency with 16,198 votes, defeating APC’s Ahmad Kadamu, who polled 5,347.

APC, however, clawed back in the Ghari/Tsanyawa supplementary poll, where Garba Gwarmai secured 31,472 votes against NNPP’s Yusuf Maigado, who got 27,931. The mixed results reflect Kano’s fluid political landscape, where the NNPP remains strong under Rabiu Kwankwaso’s influence but faces persistent challenges from the APC.

Violence and vote-buying mar exercise

The by-elections, while broadly peaceful in many areas, were tainted by reports of irregularities. In Ogun, police confirmed the arrest of two INEC officials and a driver after intercepting a Mitsubishi Space Wagon in Iperu Remo containing ₦2.5 million in cash. According to the police, one of the suspects confessed that the money was meant for “political solution” on the directive of a supervisor.

Elsewhere in Ogun, gunmen stormed the polling unit of PDP’s 2023 governorship candidate, Ladi Adebutu, at Wesley Primary School, Remo. The hoodlums, riding motorcycles, shot indiscriminately into the air before carting away ballot boxes. Voters fled in panic, and the incident added to widespread concerns about the vulnerability of polling stations to violence.

Despite these disruptions, the Resident Electoral Commissioner in Ogun, Mrs. Saseyi Feyijimi, insisted that the exercise was largely peaceful, commending voters, security agencies, and INEC staff for their conduct.

Implications for 2027

The by-elections reaffirmed familiar patterns: APC continues to dominate nationally, especially in the South-West and North-Central; APGA remains entrenched in Anambra; PDP still has pockets of resilience but struggles to break APC’s hold outside traditional strongholds; and NNPP remains influential in Kano.

Yet, the polls also highlighted troubling trends that could affect 2027. Persistent vote-buying, sometimes in the open, risks eroding confidence in democratic outcomes. Violence at polling units, including ballot snatching, underscores how security lapses can tilt results. And the arrest of INEC officials with millions in cash raises doubts about institutional neutrality.

For APC, the victories consolidate President Bola Tinubu’s ruling party as it positions itself for re-election in 2027. For PDP, the Oyo win provides a glimmer of hope but also a reminder of how much ground it has lost since its heydays. For NNPP, the Kano results reinforce its status as a regional power-broker, though translating that into national relevance remains uncertain.

As Nigeria inches closer to another election cycle, Saturday’s by-elections provided both reassurance of democratic competition and a sobering reminder of the deep-rooted flaws that continue to define the country’s electoral process.