Amidst decline in prices of foodstuff, conflicting trends suggest economy still unstable 

The economic hardship that has buffeted Nigerians reflected in the high prices of food stuffs in the past two years seems to be easing as the pressure with many produce recorded lower prices compared to the same time last year. Some of the foodstuffs, such as rice, beans and yam, which had their prices virtually beyond the reach of ordinary have become relatively nore affordable.

Experts said that this could be attributed to the seasonal nature of the items, but more especially, the federal government policy of allowing some importation of some food grains to cushion the excruciating effects of the twin reform policies of subsidy  removal and unification of forex rates.

A survey of  some markets in Lagos has shown  a marginal reduction in the prices of some staple foods, this development has offered  temporary relief to consumers grappling with months of steep inflation.

However, market data  have shown conflicting trends, with gains affordability for some items being conflicted by fresh surges in others, leaving traders and households at a loss about the outlook.

There have been declines  for items like onions, egusi, white garri, beans, and frozen fish, which analysts attribute  to increased supplies from farmers. This  development has offered some relief to consumers, though market trends remained mixed, with other items seeing price increases.  Recall that the current administration also launched initiatives to reduce costs, including a crackdown on highway extortion and an order to crash food prices nationwide

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Since February, the prices of several staple items have moved up and down .The most notable reduction currently has been in onions, with the cost of a big bag declining  by 43.2 percent due to a wave of fresh arrivals from northern producing states. Prices also fell for egusi (melon), white garri, beans, frozen fish varieties such as kote and Titus, a 25-litre gallon of vegetable oil, and yams.

Traders at different markets – Sango, Ile Epo, Agege, Ishaga have expressed mixed feelings over reduction in prices of some items and slight increases in some, saying generally that government needs to support farmers, combat insecurity and  highway touts and criminals.

Kingsley  Umoh at  Sango market told Business Hallmark that he sold a 50kg bag of rice last December between N80,000 and N90,000. In February, the same quantity sold  between N70,000 and N75,000. Now, he says he sells same at N60,000.

The latest data from the Lagos Market Food Prices Tracker underscored the uncertainty. In September this year a 25kg bag of imported long-grain rice sold for ₦39,000, while a 60kg bag reached ₦68,000.

As of November last year, a 50kg   of beans  sold for as high as N230,000 to N270,000 but now goes for N90,000, while a 60kg of beans used to sell up to N300,000 per bag but now sells between N130,000 and N100,000 depending on the variety and location.

Consumers  are now in relief that a  big bag of garri which last November sold  at N60,000, now sells between N28,000 and N35,000 depending on the variety and location. At Ifo market close to Lafarge in Ewekoro, a bag of white  garri is sold at N28,000 but at Agege it goes for N33,000, while Yellow sells for N30,000 at Ifo, and N35 at Agege. The price range is also evident at Ile Epo, Ayobo, Command and many other markets.

The price of vegetable oil dropped  considerably, from more than N100,000 in December for a 25-litre keg to between N70,000 and N75,000 now.

A 5-liter of Kings vegetable oil, which went for N24,000 before now sells at N18,000.

Specific Price Reductions

We can see that in spite of  reductions in some areas, the overall food market showed conflicting trends, with fresh surges in other items.

Items like a big bag of round and oval-shaped tomatoes, and packaged food products like Honeywell wheat meal, (but not all wheat) and Golden Penny pasta, saw price increases due to supply shortages and higher demand.

John, a foodstuffs trader at Ile Epo market was more cautious, saying , “The rice we usually buy for ₦88,000 (long grain) is now ₦80,000, while the short grain which sold for ₦75,000 is going for ₦60,000. Garri has reduced by 15 percent.”

Another Lagos resident,  Damilola Ajayi added: “There have been relative marginal reductions in prices of key staples, which I describe as food for the middle class. A bowl of garri that sold for ₦3,000 and ₦2,500 is now ₦2,000. Other food staples are still on the high side. The prices should be lower than these now. I want the government to do more.”

Experts warn that the apparent declines mask deeper economic challenges. The President, Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria (ASBON), Dr. Femi Egbesola, described the situation as a “two-headed sword.” He explained: “The first phase is that we see the government trying to bring down inflation, and they are doing a lot with the macro-economy through their policy to bring down inflation, and that is already reflecting in the prices in the markets. The other side to it also is that many do not have the resources to even buy as much as they did before. Their purchasing power has reduced a lot, and when there is a reduction in demand, there will be more supply, and automatically prices will begin to crash.”

Dare Ambale, a civil servant told BH that prices are coming down stealthily for some and going up for others, saying that overall, foodstuffs prices have come down marginally.

“For example, a paint container of garri here in Lagos, the yellow one is N2,500, whereas the white is N2,000. Before it used to be N3,000 and N2,500 respectively. A family can take that quantity and it can last them for a week. The yam that I do buy for N5,000, I got it yesterday for N2,500. The drop is steadily reducing, giving us  joy.”

John, a foodstuffs trader at Ile Epo market was more cautious, saying , “The rice we usually buy for ₦80,000 (long grain) is now ₦70,000, while the short grain which sold for ₦70,000 is going for ₦60,000. Garri has reduced by 15 percent.”

The other side to it also is that many do not have the resources to even buy as much as they did before. Their purchasing power has reduced a lot, and when there is a reduction in demand, there will be more supply, and automatically prices will begin to crash.”

He  implored  the government to  funnel  interventions into agriculture and its value chain, including modern farming techniques, funding access for farmers, and improved infrastructure.

“The first thing important to everybody is food, and food has always been the middle driver of inflation over the years in Nigeria,” he said. “Arrest insecurity and make sure that the roads are good because sometimes the cost of moving produce from the farm to the city is a big challenge.”

The mixed signals highlight Nigeria’s food price dilemma: while seasonal harvests bring short-term relief, inflationary pressures, weak purchasing power, and fragile supply chains mean that stability remains elusive for millions of households