Ganduje: Tinubu plots to secure Kano amid coalition push

 Woos Kwankwaso to consolidate in N/West

When last week, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje abruptly resigned as National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC) on June 27, 2025, citing “urgent personal matters,” few Nigerians took the explanation at face value.

For close watchers of Nigeria’s political manoeuvring, it was a calculated sacrifice, one orchestrated by President Bola Tinubu as part of a wider, high-stakes strategy to reclaim Kano State and solidify his chances of securing a second term in 2027, one that could see Rabiu Kwankwaso replacing Kashim Shettima as vice president.

With eighteen months to go before the general election, Tinubu has begun deploying his signature brand of realpolitik – a mix of charm, coercion, and chess-like repositioning – across the country. Apparently, his eyes are firmly fixed on three pivotal battle-grounds: Lagos, Rivers, and most critically, Kano.

While Lagos is his traditional stronghold, and Rivers a theatre of power struggle in the South-South, Kano remains the jewel in the electoral crown of the North. Losing it in 2023 to Kwankwaso’s New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) was a bitter pill. Sources say Tinubu  is now moving to ensure that history does not repeat itself.

Kano holds the Ace

Kano, with its over 5.9 million registered voters, is a prize no serious presidential candidate can ignore. In 2023, Kwankwaso and his NNPP dominated the state, snatching both the governorship and presidential ballots from the APC. It was a symbolic and strategic loss for Tinubu, who, despite winning the presidency in a highly contentious electoral process, suffered humiliation in a state that had been an APC bastion.

Since then, the president has reportedly made several overtures to Kwankwaso, the red-capped general of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, whose cult-like following in Kano makes him the most influential political figure in the state. A highly placed APC source told Business Hallmark that the only stumbling block to Kwankwaso joining the APC had been Ganduje’s continued leadership of the party.

“Kwankwaso gave the president one condition for rejoining the APC: Ganduje’s removal as national chairman,” the source disclosed. “With Ganduje in charge, Kwankwaso couldn’t assume party leadership in Kano.”

According to some insiders, Tinubu eventually acted, forcing Ganduje to resign to accommodate Kwankwaso. The move not only opens the door for Kwankwaso’s return but also serves to neutralize a potentially dangerous rival, who had been flirting with a mega opposition coalition involving former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, and others.

The irony of the Ganduje-Kwankwaso saga is not lost on political observers. Once allies in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Ganduje served as Kwankwaso’s deputy from 2011 to 2015 during his second stint as governor. But by the time Ganduje succeeded him in 2015, the relationship soured beyond repair. What followed was nearly a decade of bitter rivalry, marked by political betrayals, public insults, and street-level violence between their supporters.

In 2023, the rift culminated in the complete rout of Ganduje’s APC in Kano by Kwankwaso’s NNPP. Many believe that Tinubu’s decision to back Ganduje as APC national chairman after the election was a political miscalculation, one he has now moved to correct.

Now that Ganduje is out, and APC Deputy National Chairman (North), Hon. Ali Dalori, has stepped in as acting chairman, the party appears poised for a reinvention that could include the full return of Kwankwaso and his supporters. This may also pull the rug under the feet of the governor, Abba Kabir Yusuf, who has been antagonizing Kwankwaso, who installed him in 2023. He may be the next to join but he will remain under a godfather he tried to dump.

Lawyer and political analyst, Chidi Anthony sees the development as a clear indication that Tinubu is already in campaign mode. “It is clear that the president is underperforming in governance, but when it comes to political strategy, he is a master tactician,” Ohe said. “Removing Ganduje is not just about appeasing Kwankwaso; it’s about winning Kano back and eliminating the threat of an Atiku-Kwankwaso alliance.”

Vice presidential permutations

Amidst the Ganduje-Kwankwaso drama is a sub-plot that may soon dominate national headlines: the future of Vice President Kashim Shettima. With Kwankwaso potentially joining APC, speculation is rife that Tinubu may consider dropping Shettima to make way for his new northern partner. Some analysts argue that this could help Tinubu balance the APC ticket in ways that could appeal to either Muslim-Christian sentiments or geo-political expectations.

This potential change has ignited a flurry of conversations within the APC. If the APC chairmanship shifts to the North-central, for instance, the North-west or North-east becomes the likely zone for vice presidential selection. But if the chairmanship goes to the North-east, then a North-central Christian might be the strategic pick – particularly in response to criticism of religious imbalance since 2023.

Rivers State dimension

While Kano is a key part of the puzzle, Tinubu has also been working behind the scenes to resolve the political crisis in Rivers State. Earlier this week, he brokered a dramatic reconciliation between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his estranged political godfather, FCT Minister Nyesom Wike. The two had been locked in a bitter power struggle since the latter helped Fubara secure the governorship under the PDP banner in 2023.

The president had earlier declared a state of emergency in Rivers due to the prolonged crisis and suspended both Fubara and members of the state assembly. But last Thursday, Tinubu hosted the feuding camps at the Presidential Villa in Abuja, where peace talks led to a tentative truce.

Fubara, speaking after the meeting, described it as a “positive move for lasting peace” and pledged to work towards reconciliation. Analysts see Tinubu’s involvement not as a gesture of goodwill but as a strategic play to take control of Rivers politics ahead of 2027.

Tinubu’s Lagos

While Kano and Rivers dominate headlines, Lagos – the economic nerve center and Tinubu’s political cradle – remains central to his 2027 calculations.

The 2023 presidential election rattled the president’s political machinery when Labour Party’s Peter Obi narrowly defeated him in his home state. Though Tinubu won nationally, the psychological and symbolic loss of Lagos was a wake-up call.

No More Opposition

In response, the president has since doubled down on tightening his grip on the state. Insiders say he has reshuffled local political structures, clipped the wings of dissenting elements, and strategically placed loyalists across Lagos’s vast administrative and political landscape. The ambition is clear: ensure that no opposition force can repeat what Obi achieved.

The emerging political pattern suggests Tinubu is building a tri-regional super alliance – one that links the Southwest (Lagos), Northwest (Kano), and South-south (Rivers). If he succeeds, this triangle would anchor a powerful electoral bloc capable of withstanding opposition forces, no matter how broad their coalition.

According to Dr. Sam Amadi, a former chairman of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission and now a public affairs analyst, the idea is to replicate the political architecture that brought Tinubu to power in 2023, but this time, fortified by defections, reconciliations, and raw federal power.

“Tinubu is trying to kill the opposition’s momentum before it even takes shape,” Amadi said. “If he brings Kwankwaso into APC, neutralizes Wike-Fubara hostilities, and shores up Lagos, he will have taken out the legs under the opposition’s stool.”

Fear of one-party state

The president’s relentless political manoeuvring has sparked concern among democracy advocates and civil society groups, who warn that Nigeria could be drifting toward a de facto one-party system. With prominent opposition figures either defecting or being neutralized through subtle coercion, there are fears that dissent could be stifled ahead of 2027.

Still, within the APC, the atmosphere is mixed. While some welcome the new alignments as proof of Tinubu’s strategic genius, others quietly worry about alienating core loyalists, especially in the North-east where Vice President Kashim Shettima’s future remains uncertain.

A senior APC official, who requested anonymity, said: “There’s growing discomfort. If the VP is dropped for Kwankwaso, there’ll be consequences. The North-east won’t take it lying down. You don’t win elections by causing internal tremors that you can’t manage later.”

Meanwhile, the opposition continues to struggle to present a united front. Talks of a mega-coalition involving the PDP, NNPP, Labour Party, and other smaller groups have lingered for months, but little has materialized. Kwankwaso’s rumoured return to the APC is likely to deal a crushing blow to those plans.

Former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, seen as a likely opposition standard-bearer again in 2027, has been lobbying hard to forge unity among opposition camps. But analysts say his influence is waning, especially as younger voters increasingly gravitate toward candidates perceived as less tainted by past failures.

With Kwankwaso’s possible crossover, the dream of an Atiku-Kwankwaso coalition ticket could be dead. This leaves the PDP and Labour Party with fewer cards to play, especially if Tinubu succeeds in pacifying critical regions and retaining incumbency leverage.

Hoping Against Hope

Despite the president’s consolidation drive, some political observers caution that 2027 remains an open race. Public dissatisfaction with Tinubu’s economic policies causing inflation, unemployment, and rising insecurity could still fuel a mass protest vote, especially among young Nigerians.

“The opposition may be disorganized, but Tinubu is still vulnerable,” Anthony said. “He’s banking heavily on elite alliances and state machinery, but if things continue to deteriorate on the economic front, even the most loyal supporters may rebel at the polls.”

He added that issues like minimum wage protests, subsidy pain, and poor public service delivery could prove more influential than political permutations. “Nigerians are suffering, and suffering people don’t care about who outsmarted who politically. They care about survival.”

Ultimately, President Tinubu’s flurry of political moves reflect both his prowess as a master of the game and a recognition of the serious threat a unified opposition could pose. His ability to sacrifice even close allies like Ganduje to advance broader goals speaks to a pragmatic, if ruthless, leadership style.

From reconciling enemies in Rivers, reclaiming control of Kano, to regaining lost territory in Lagos, the president appears to be building his 2027 comeback from the ground up—one state, one power-broker at a time.

The big question is whether these calculated moves will be enough to override the anger and disillusionment simmering among the masses. As 2027 inches closer, it’s clear that while Tinubu may be perfecting the art of political survival, the real test will be at the ballot box—where Nigerian voters, not kingmakers, will have the final say.