Politics
Guber Polls: Anxiety mounts over battle ground states
Olusesan Laoye,
With the much anticipated presidential election, which held on February 25, now over, except for the controversy that trailed it, and consequent legal battle to follow, attention has been shifted to the governorship and state houses of assembly polls earlier scheduled for March 11, but now to hold on March 18, after INEC postponed the polls.
The postponement became necessary following the court case between the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Mr. Peter Obi and INEC at he Court of Appeal, which is the tribunal for the presidential election. Obi had sought the leave of the court for an order to inspect all INEC electoral materials used for the election, following his decision to challenge the outcome of the election, which saw the APC candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, being declared the winner, a request the court granted on March 3, 2023.
However, INEC challenged the order by asking the court to verify it and grant it the power to reconfigure all the BVAS machines used for the presidential election before it could be deployed for the guber polls, an action many condemned and saw as a ploy to destroy valuable evidence that could help the opposition case at the tribunal. INEC has asked for five days to enable it reconfigure the BVAS. But at the time of judgment on Wednesday March 8, the election umpire had only two days to the polls.
As we count down to the polls this weekend, anxiety is mounting over some key states considered as battle grounds in terms of political and strategic importance, and the fear of possible electoral violence. The States, out of the 36 states in Nigeria, where it is envisaged that the battle would be fierce, are 11 all together. They are states where some of the contestants are determined to win at any cost because of personal interest, political ego and strategic alliance.
The 11 states are Abia, Benue, Kano, Oyo, Rivers, Lagos, Ebonyi Enugu, Akwa Ibom and Plateau. These are also the states, where the presidential election in which Ahmed Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, (APC), was declared winner, beating Alhaji Abubakar Atiku of the Peoples’ Democratic party (PDP), and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) may be tested.
Analysts believe that the result of the presidential election would have significant effect and it would also influence the direction, and it would be a referendum on the outcome of the presidential poll, as it would be easy for the president-elect replicate the result, where the people of the state voted for the political parties and candidates.
It is believed that personalities and performance would as well count in the governorship election, for those who are currently serving, while those who are coming in afresh would rely on their goodwill with the people, antecedents and philanthropic gestures, because every politics is local. Already, the presidential election is expected to produce some bandwagon, it envisaged that local particularities will also play significant role, as Nigerian voters seem to be going beyond parties to vote individuals.
Since the coming governorship is, therefore, going to be epic because of what people expected did not happen in the presidential elections where major upsets occurred, the parties and the candidates would not want that to deter them and would want to use the governorship to prove a point and how relevant they are.
Whatever the case may be, the fierce contest would be between the
APC, PDP, and the Labour Party (LP), especially in Lagos, Rivers, Abia, Enugu, and Benue states. That of Oyo is peculiar, with the horse trading and coalition talks going on; the battle is envisaged to be between, Teslim Folarin of the APC and the incumbent, Seyi Makinde.
Lagos State:
The battle here without mincing words would be tight, due to the upset created by the Labour party in the presidential election. With the margin of victory by the Labour Party, the APC, which has been the dominant party in the state for decades, is now jittery.
It is believed that with the notion that despite the fact that the LP took the state in the presidential election, there was still rigging, and the youths across the tribal lines, who voted LP would come out to uphold their grip of Lagos and punish the riggers.
The impression before the presidential election on February 25 was that the battle for the Alausa Governor’s office, would be between the incumbent Babajide Sanwo-Olu of the APC, and Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran (Jandor) of the PDP, but right now, the candidate of the Labour Party, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour has become a force to reckon with due to the record of Peter Obi in the presidential election.
For political analysts, the LP will as much as possible consolidate on its presidential election gains in Lagos, with protest votes that could cause a big upset against APC-led government of Sanwo-Olu in the state.
Though it was said that upstaging APC in Lagos is not going to be easy, especially if the PDP and the Labour did not see it fit to come together. As at the weekend, PDP leader in the Chief Bode George confirmed that talks were going on to present a common candidate to form a more formidable force.
Benue:
Samuel Ortom, governor of Benue State, remains one of the most outstanding governors in Nigeria in protecting his people. He is regarded as a fighter, and it is believed that he would not allow his senatorial election deter him from ensuring that the PDP wins the state. He is popular with the people of Benue for his boldness in looking President Buhari and his government straight in the eye on issues that affected his people.
This explains why it is baffling to many people how he could lose the senatorial seat. His support for the Labour Party also enhanced the chances of the party in the presidential election.
Despite his alliance with Nyesom Wike, which, it is believed, affected him, Ortom will fight back and Benue people will support him. PDP will still win in Benue because the people prefer the party to any other political party. Because of the local nature of the election, it will be interesting to see how it plays out. But many people bet on Ortom to make a lie the outcome of the presidential election.
Abia State:
It is believed that in Abia today, Okezie Ikpeazu, the incumbent governor, is out of favour with the people. Lately, he has been suffering from political miscalculations in one way or the other. One of them is his unholy alliance with Wike.
Again his imposition of unpopular gubernatorial candidate, who later died, is now difficult for him to get a replacement who will be loyal to him as the man that died.
Coupled with all the upsets of
losing his senatorial ambition to the LP, now makes him a toothless bull dog in the politics of Abia State.
The notion now in the State is that Ikpeazu may be going into political extinction if his party, the PDP,
loses in the gubernatorial election with Ahiwe Okechukwu
In Abia State now. The clamour is for Mr. Alex Otti, who has not relented in his bid to govern the state.
With what Alex Otti has been doing generally in the state while not yet a governor, in the area of sports and th,e economic reforms, he strongly stands as the man the state has been waiting for. This is the reason why the PDP and the APC,cz zoom which particularly has Orji Uzor Kalu, who has just gained his senatorial seat would have to fight for the soul of Abia, which is clear for Alex Otti to clinch, baring all considerations and permutations.
The LP candidate is the toast of the people and it would take the PDP, which it is believed wrecked the state, a hard nut to crack with the Labour and Peter Obi wave across Nigeria, with Abia inclusive.
As a one of the leaders of the LP argued. “We have not lost the mandate Nigerians gave us at the presidential election. We are in court and there will surely be victory. So, we are going ahead to win overwhelmingly in Abia this coming Saturday,” the leader pointed out.
Rivers State
The case of Rivers is simple and straight forward as Gov. Nyeson Wike of the PDP is in full control. It is believed that there is not going to be any serious battle in the state as the PDP would want to consolidate on its gains in the National Assembly elections.
It was Wike’s outstanding postures that pave the way for the APC to win the State and he would now ensure that his preferred candidate wins the governorship election. But he may be disappointed, given the fact that APC, which he allegedly gave the victory, will want to consolidate, and LP’s claim that it won the presidential polls will also be tested.
Although Wike is alleged to have made a deal with Tinubu for the position of Secretary to the government, he is aware that he could still be left in the cold by the APC, so he would make sure to retain the governorship of the state to ensure he remains politically relevant and keep Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi out to avoid facing similar fate.
Oyo State:
The battle of who governs Oyo State has always been very competitive. This state is always very volatile when it comes to election and it has been a state where the Ibadan factor matters on who governs.
Governorship elections in the state has also always been a game of coalitions, as no candidate of any political party has won election on its own without aligning with others, with the backing of who is the big wigs in Oyo state.
In 2011, the late Abiola Ajimobi defeated incumbent governor Adebayo Alao-Akala. Ajimobi’s reelection in 2015 was unthinkable, as he became the only governor so far in the history of the state to serve a second term.
But despite this, by the time he was to go in 2019, Ajimobi was no longer in the good books of the people of Oyo state.Though not on the basis of lack of performance but for his utterances, which the people of the State detested. The elites did not find that accommodating.
As a result he lost the grip of the state and even the party as there were factions before he died. This actually made him lose his senatorial bid while his anointed son, Adebayo Adelabu too, lost his governorship to the incumbent, Engineer Seyi Makinde.
Since then, the battle for who occupies Agodi government House has been so fierce, between three contestants of the PDP, APC and the Accord party.
With Seyi Makinde, who defeated Adelabu in 2019 seeking re-election, Adelabu too is contesting under the Accord party, and Senator Teslim Folarin, on the platform of the APC. However, political observers argued that the governorship poll in the state on Saturday, remains dicey such that it would be anybody’s game amongst the three main contenders.
Fifteen political parties have candidates in the election, but these three are heavy weights, making it
a three-horse race, Adelabu, a former deputy governor of the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN), got disillusioned after the APC primary, which he lost to Folarin with 327 to 954 votes.
Makinde’s support for the presidential bid of the APC candidate against his party’s candidate, Atiku Abubakar instantly brought a new dimension into to the political dynamics of Oyo state.
The coming governorship election would be an interesting one due to the fact that there is now a realignment of forces for and against governor Makinde. Those in the APC, Accord and even some members of the PDP, who claimed that Makinde has betrayed them are hell bent to ensure that he did not get a second term.
Publicity Secretary of the Oyo APC, Olawale Sadare, told reporters recently that he did not see the rationale behind the insinuations about Governor Makinde being responsible for the delivery of all the three Senatorial and eight House of Representatives seats to the APC in the same election where PDP also had its best candidates.
Leaders of the APC, especially Alhaji Kehinde Olaosebikan, have dismissed arguments that Makinde played a key role in the victory recorded by Tinubu in Oyo state, where he polled a total of 449,884 votes to defeat other presidential candidates and other political parties in the state.
With what is on ground now and the powerful horse-trading going on in the state, as Teslim Folarin moves to woo his else while compatriots in the PDP to his side and with the endorsement of Makinde by various groups, political parties, traditional rulers and some powerful elites, the contest may have been narrowed down to Folarin and Makinde, with Adelabu waiting to be a spoiler in the wings.
Enugu State:
Enugu State is like other South Eastern States, which has been under the control of the PDP since 1999. From the look of things, the pendulum may swing elsewhere this time around, considering the result of the presidential and National Assembly elections.
Some observers have predicted that the failure of the incumbent governor, Ifeanyi Ugwanyi of the state to win his senatorial election may just be an indication that he and his party have lost out in the game.
Ugwanyi is another member of the G-5 governors like Ortom and the Abia governor. who lost his senatorial election to the LP candidate.
The victory of the Labour party in the State was seen as a sign of the party waxing stronger and ready to take over Southeast, as the governorship candidate of the party Chijoke Edeoga, has been boasting that the game Is up for Ugwanyi and the PDP.
Despite the opposition of the PDP governorship candidate, Peter Ubah, that he is not from Enugu State and with the pressure mounting on him ahead of the election by some leaders and traditional rulers, he is determined to win the election with the backing of Ugwuanyi, who will ensure that the Labour is relegated to the back ground. However, former governor and senator, Dr. Chimaroke Nnamani, who still claim to be a member of PDP after he had be expelled by the national body for anti party activity, because of romance with APC, will know his political fate on Saturday, as his election was postponed following the murder of his opponent for the Enugu east senatorial zone, and LP candidate, Mr. Chukwu.
Ebonyi
The state will present another test case for the presidential election, as the APC led government won the three senatorial seats but lost the presidential woefully. Also with the governor, Dave Umahi, fighting for political future by ensuring the election of his anointed candidate, it will be another game of survival, which will be fought with every resources at his disposal, as he struggles to retire his political mentors and godfathers, such as Dr. Egwu, and Senator Pius Anyim.
Kano:
This is another state that the election would be very tough. There is no doubt the NNPP would want to maintain its lead in the only state it so far grabbed in the presidential election. This is the election that the presidential candidate of the NNPP Alhaji Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso would want to use to prove that he owns the state politically.
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Though the APC headed by the incumbent governor Ganduje would want to put up a big fight, the facts still remain that Kano people sees Kwankanso as a new symbol of late Alhaji Aminu Kano, who cared for the Talakawas and would always go for him. Again, as far as politics in Kano is concerned today, Kwankwanso has proved he is the master under, who those in the limelight politically grew.
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This is the election where the incumbent governor, Samuel Lalong, would want to ensure that his party despite the performance at the presidential poll gain the state for the APC.
It is a state where the battle would not go lightly and with certainty for all the contestants and their political parties.
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Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour: Coming from the cold
Adebayo Obajemu
The gubernatorial elections fixed for March 18, 2023 may perhaps go down in history as the one that has generated so much anxiety, apprehension and fear simply because of one man: Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivours and the party he represents as gubernatorial candidate in Lagos – the Labour Party.
The anxiety and fear in the camp of the ruling party in the state, the All Progressives Congress may not be misplaced given the outcome of the presidential election in which the upstart Labour Party trounced APC which through all its mutations since 1999 has held the state by the jugular.
Ever since Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu came on the scene in 1999 smarting from his sterling role in the fight for democracy, he has never lost any election and his proteges and acolytes have always won political contests at different levels. The governorship of Lagos state given to him by the Afennifere – a leading sociocultural organization with much leverage in politics of the southwest – is widely believed to be a compensation for his NADECO role.
The Labour Party under the powerful influence of Peter Obi movement ended the more than two decades of Tinubu’s political dynasty’s stranglehold in the state.
“Peter Obi of the Labour Party won the presidential election in Lagos, Nigeria’s most populous state, the win, which is surprising to many, shows that a positive mass movement anchored on right values and latched on people’s disenchantment with the oppressive status quo can overthrow old establishment. The coming gubernatorial election in Lagos is likely to follow the pattern of the presidential, and with the rising popularity of the young man Gbadebo, it’s only God that will help APC.
At the presidential contest Mr. Obi secured 582,454 votes to defeat his closest challenger, Bola Tinubu of the APC, who scored 572, 606 votes.
Atiku Abubakar of the PDP came third with 75,750 votes.
A total of 1,347,152 people were accredited for the election in Lagos, a state where Tinubu has a lot of political control and influence.
Though Tinubu’s APC won in the majority of the 20 local governments in Lagos (11), Obi’s total votes were more, while he also won in the remaining nine local government areas.
The result has been described by many analysts as a demystification of Tinubu, who had been predicted to win the state where he was governor between 1999 and 2007.
Who is Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, and how has he come to symbolise the face of the opposition in Lagos? How has he come to be such a big threat to Babajide Sanwoolu’s re-election?
A top member of the Obidients Movement in Lagos told Business Hallmark that “Gbadebo will be the first true Lagosian to govern Lagos. Go and mark my words, the Labour Party will defeat the APC. That young man Gbadebo has all it takes to defeat APC.”
According to Wikipedia, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, also known as GRV, was born 8 March 1983, and is an architect by training, activist and politician of Yoruba descent, from Lagos State. He was the senatorial candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) for Lagos West senatorial district in the 2019 Nigerian Senate elections in Lagos State.
He is the gubernatorial candidate of the Labour party (LP) for Lagos State in the upcoming 2023 Lagos State gubernatorial election.
Professor Adeagbo Moritiwon, a political scientist, told this medium that Gbadebo has three big assets: one, he is from the illustrious Rhodes-Vivour family of Lagos, making him a true Lagosian. Second, he is highly educated, having been trained in the best schools in the world, then his greatest asset: he is the candidate of the Labour Party.”
Moritiwon continued: “Don’t forget that Rhodes-Vivour is from a family of lawyers. He is the son of Barrister Olawale and Mrs. Nkechi Rhodes-Vivour. A former justice of the Supreme Court of Nigeria, Bode Rhodes-Vivour, is his uncle, while the late Judge Akinwunmi Rhodes-Vivour is his grandfather. He is the great-grandson of Steven Bankole Rhodes; the second ever indigenous judge appointed in Nigeria, and go and mark it the youth and the disenchanted will determine the next Saturday election in Lagos.
The Afennifere has thrown their support behind his candidacy, and the former deputy governor of Lagos, Bucknor Akerele has said Gbadebo is sure to win. In a surprising take, a top chieftain of the People’s Democratic Party in Lagos, Chief Bode George has identified with him.
Many commentators and the establishment in Lagos did not initially give Gbadebo and his party any chance, describing them as social media sensation . After the results of the presidential election came out , the Labour Party and Gbadebo, its gubernatorial candidate, began to be considered a serious threat.
To counter the rising hurricane that Labour Party has become in Lagos, the Lagos state government has begun to woo the people of the state.
One, the transport fee of Lagos state transit buses have been reduced by half, and the LASTMA- impounded vehicles released free of charge to owners, and Governor Sanwoolu himself has been moving from one place to another wooing the electorate to vote for APC.
He recently visited the Computer Village to solicit for their votes.
“The Gbadebo- Labour Party phenomenon has forced the authorities, who have long ignored the people as centre of power to concede. For the first time since 1999, they have realized that the people matter”, says Dr. Mohammed Raffin, a political scientist, in his chat with Business Hallmark.
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Gbadebo himself has said if he wins, he will institute a new dawn in Lagos.
Gbadebo said that if elected in the March 18 election, his administration will put an end to touts and thuggery, popularly known as the ‘Agbero’ system in the state.
He gave the assurance while speaking at the Youth O’clock breakfast meeting organised by the ‘Obidient Movement’ in Ikeja GRA Lagos, vowing that the Labour Party would resist any form of voters intimidation or harassment.
He stressed that the event was part of the mission to free Lagos from the shackles holding the state down.
Responding to the claims that he’s not a Yoruba man and that he doesn’t understand Yoruba, Rhodes-Vivour said the people of Lagos want good governance regardless of the language a leader speaks or the tribe he belongs to. He noted that he is a proper cosmopolitan Lagosian having roots with the Yoruba people and having been trained in the best institutions in the world.
The LP candidate said Lagos has always existed in harmony but politicians whip up ethnicity to divide the people of the state.
He also promised to provide employability skills to young people to tackle the problem of youth unemployment in the state, emphasizing that contrary to the notion that unemployed youths are lazy, many of them actually want jobs to earn a decent living.
“They want jobs, so we are going to ensure that we give them employability skills and domicile these skills at the local governments,” he said.
He promised that when he emerges as governor, the health care system, education, transportation, clean pipe-borne water system, and other infrastructure work effectively.
He noted that the Obidient project is bigger than anyone and by God’s grace it will produce thousands of quality men that will continue to serve the country with sincerity of purpose.
He said that the security and safety of voters are paramount in the March 18 election, adding that any form of intimidation and harassment would be resisted.
Yet many still believe that the Gbadebo effect is not for the current dispensation, saying the APC will retain power in the state.
Professor David Olubi, a French lecturer said that it will take more than the Obi movement to overthrow the entrenched system in Lagos.
“Though they may have ruffled official feathers as shown in the presidential election but the governorship election is a different ball game altogether. Different sentiment and emotion will play out in the election. ”
Gbadebo attended Chrisland primary and secondary schools up to JSS3, and then proceeded to Paris to attend École Active Bilingue, where he completed his secondary education. He has a bachelor’s degree in architecture from University of Nottingham and a master’s degree in the same field from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
He partook in the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) in 2008 after his first master’s and completed it in 2009. He later attained a second master’s degree in Research and Public Policy; from the University of Lagos (UNILAG).
He worked with Franklin Ellis Architects when he was in the UK. On returning to Nigeria, he worked with SISA, Cliff Consulting now called Building Partnership CCP and Patrick Wayi, before venturing fully into politics. Whether Gbadebo will be the game changer time will tell.
