APT Securities projects NGX market cap above N100trn by year-end

Managing Director and CEO of APT Securities and Funds Limited, Kasimu Garba Kurfi, has forecast that the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) market capitalisation will exceed ₦100 trillion by the end of 2025, driven by foreign exchange stability, strong corporate earnings, and sustained primary market activity.

Speaking at the Mid-Year 2025 Capital Market Review and Outlook organised by the Capital Market Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CAMCAN) in Lagos, Kurfi predicted a stronger second-half performance for the bourse, supported by easing inflation, potential cuts in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), falling treasury bill yields, and a steady exchange rate.

He said a short-term market correction would give way to sustained gains, with more financial institutions set to recapitalise and the primary market remaining active.

Kurfi highlighted that the elimination of foreign exchange-related losses had boosted investor sentiment. Nigerian listed firms recorded a combined ₦867 billion in pre-tax FX losses in 2023 and 2024, but “in 2025, we have seen zero FX losses due to exchange rate stability,” he noted.

The passage of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA 25), he added, has fuelled a rally in insurance stocks, while the Central Bank of Nigeria’s bank recapitalisation drive attracted over ₦2 trillion in 2024, with similar inflows expected this year.

Foreign capital inflows rose 67.42 percent year-on-year to $5.6 billion in Q1 2025, lifting foreign portfolio investment to 27.08 percent of market participation (₦1.14 trillion) compared to under 10 percent in 2023. Domestic investors still dominate with 72.92 percent (₦3 trillion).

Market turnover has surged to an average of ₦25–₦30 billion daily, from ₦5 billion in previous years. The NGX posted ₦4.19 trillion turnover in H1 2025, up from ₦2.60 trillion in H1 2024. Total market capitalisation rose to ₦126.73 trillion from ₦112.6 trillion in December 2024, with equity capitalisation hitting ₦92.73 trillion by August 7, up from ₦62.66 trillion at the start of the year.

The All-Share Index (ASI) climbed 41.61 percent to 146,569.35 points from 102,926.40 in December 2024. Sectorally, the Nigerian Consumer Goods Index led gains with 81.11 percent, followed by the Insurance Index (74.18%), NGX Lotus II (73.34%), Banking Index (48.15%), Pension Index (52.72%), and Industrial Goods Index (53.89%).

For optimal returns, Kurfi advised investors to focus on blue-chip stocks with solid fundamentals and insurance companies that have diversified into asset management, while also balancing portfolios with fixed-income securities as a hedge against inflation and naira depreciation.