Business
Appetite for all things foreign to blame for naira collapse, $98bn spent on medical tourism, others in 10 years – CBN
Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, has noted that the appetite for all things foreign by Nigerians is a major factor contributing to the fall of Naira.
This is as he revealed that Nigerians spent a whopping $98bn on foreign education, healthcare and personal travels in 10 years.
Cardoso who made the disclosure while addressing the House of Representatives on Tuesday, emphasised that the job of strengthening the local currency is the responsibility of everyone.
He emphasized that the exchange rate is determined by forces of demand and supply, noting that the Nigerian currency is struggling because the country doesn’t export enough.
“Permit me to say that the exchange rate is determined by the dynamics of supply and demand for a product or service. In essence, similar to the pricing of cows or cars, the value of the US Dollar in Nigeria is determined by the balance of US Dollars entering the country and the demand for US Dollars among Nigerians,” he said.
“Applying this demand and supply principle, let’s examine how the exchange rate has performed in recent years. The exchange rate in Nigeria has increased/depreciated due to the simultaneous occurrence of two factors: a decline in the supply of US Dollars coinciding with a surge in the demand for US Dollars.’’.
The lawmakers had invited Cardoso and other economic managers following last week’s plunge of the naira from about 900/dollar to over 1,400/dollar at the official market.
Cardoso argued that the foreign exchange market was facing increased demand pressures, causing a continuous decline in the value of the naira.
According to him, factors contributing to this situation include speculative forex demand, inadequate forex due to low remittance of crude oil earnings to the CBN, increased capital outflows, and excess liquidity from fiscal activities.
To address exchange rate volatility, he said a comprehensive strategy had been initiated to enhance liquidity in the FX markets.
This includes unifying FX market segments, clearing outstanding FX obligations, introducing new operational mechanisms for Bureau De Change operators, enforcing the Net Open Position limit for commercial banks, and adjusting the remunerable Standing Deposit Facility cap.
Cardoso disclosed that between 201O and 2020, foreign education expenses amounted to a substantial $28.65bn, as per the CBN’S publicly available Balance of Payments Statistics.
Similarly, medical treatment abroad incurred around $11.01bn in costs during the same period. Within the same period, Personal Travel Allowances accounted for a total of $58.7bn.
In all, Nigerians spent about $98bn on foreign trips, medical tourism and overseas education.
The figure, according the CBN governor, was more than the total foreign exchange reserves of the central bank.
Further compounding the situation, according to Cardoso has been the consistent decline in Nigeria’s export earnings against the backdrop of increasing imports.
In contextualising the problem, Cardoso pointed out that Nigeria’s annual imports, which require dollars for payment, amounted to $16.65bn in 1980.
By 2014, the annual imports had significantly surged to $67.05bn, although it gradually decreased to $54.71bn as of last year.
Similarly, food imports escalated from $2.63bn in 1980 to $14.84bn in 2019.
Cardoso said, “In 1980, our import expenditure stood at $16.65bn, while our exports amounted to $25.97bn, resulting in a surplus of $9.32bn. Thus, during that year, we managed to fulfil the demand for dollars from our existing supply and still had over $9bn in surplus. In such a situation, the exchange rate (the value of the US Dollar) would not increase because, similar to any commodity, its supply surpassed its demand.”
Also contributing to the free fall of the naira, per the apex bank, has been a significant decline in Nigeria’s oil revenues.
“Moreover, from 2003 to 2013, we experienced a surplus of $331.73bn in the economy, with oil exports alone contributing over $798bn. This surplus of dollars would typically stabilize the exchange rate, leading to a “strong” naira.
“ Regrettably, over the past 12 years, oil exports, constituting over 90 per cent of our foreign exchange earnings, have declined from $93.89bn in 2011 to US$31.4bn in 2020,” Cardoso added, while noting that monetary policy actions were sometimes inhibited by transmission lags.
“It also seems that the task of stabilising the exchange rate, while an official mandate of the CBN, would necessitate efforts beyond the bank itself and indeed to an attitudinal change of all our citizens,” he added.
Cardoso expressed optimism that that the policy measures implemented by the apex bank would permeate the economy in the short to medium-term.
“Inflation pressures may persist, albeit temporarily, but are expected to moderate significantly by Q4 2024. Exchange rate pressures are also expected to reduce with the smooth functioning of the foreign exchange market,” he said.
Cardoso said one of the primary reasons the naira has continued to take a beating on the international stage has been Nigerians’ appetite for all things foreign.
For example, a new report by the Washington-based Institute of International Education showed that the number of Nigerians studying in the United States surged to the highest in at least 23 years despite an acute shortage of foreign exchange in the country.
According to the report, the number of Nigerian students at US colleges and universities grew by 22.2 per cent to 17,640 in the 2022/23 academic year from 14,438 in the previous year.
A further analysis of the report revealed that the number of Nigerians grew at a faster pace compared to last year which rose by 12.3 per cent.
This year’s increase for the country is also the fifth highest out of the top 25 international students in the US.
