Adeleke, Tinubu, and Yoruba Agenda

Osun politics is a micro battleground for 2027 elections. Osun is a war space for Yoruba agenda. It is a war between President Bola Tinubu and Rauf Aregbesola.

Governor Ademola Adeleke is caught in between this serious war between two old friends. Adeleke’s sin is his popularity, which made him a potent political asset in the unfolding war. Aside his popularity, security reports confirmed he has performed well in terms of delivery of good governance and democratic dividends.

Security and political analysts around the president also eye the social capital from identification with the Davido brand as well as the potency of the Igbo background of the Adelekes. Hence, a studied conclusion is that the dancing governor is an asset of significant impact if acquired and deployed.

Osun is a war front as it stands today. The warriors are assembling combatants. It is true that security reports over time affirm that the incumbent governor has Osun under lock and key. Several of such reports confirm that even with rigging and federal might, snatching Osun from the Adelekes may be an impossible task.

On the other side is Rauf Aregbesola, who is determined to unseat his old boss from the presidency. The passion Aregbesola devoted to the task is threatening and confounding. The presidency acknowledged his capacity and potential, all of which are now at the disposal of the opposition.

Review and situational analysis affirm that Rauf can do a lot of damage unless he is smartly countered. You can not arrest him. That will backfire. But you can remove the oxygen and tactically deflate him. The existing APC structures and chieftains in Osun lack the capacity and the wherewithal to do the job.

A confidential report surfaced, and it painted a picture that showed that the Adelekes were actually responsible for the rehabilitation of Aregbesola after the 2022 race. Prior to that time, Aregbesola was largely a political underdog already badly suppressed and disarmed by Gboyega Oyetola. The Adelekes breathed life back into Rauf by whitewashing his disastrous eight years as a governor and pushing the blame on the four years of Oyetola.

The report also traced how Aregbesola backstabbed the Adelekes by using the goodwill to rebuild his political machines and then launch surreptitious attacks on the state government. Rauf uses his newspaper as a springboard to attack Adelekes regularly. The last straw, according to the report, was the making of coalition when both Rauf and Atiku Abubakar met in Osun without a day carrying along the Adelekes on the coalition or any alliance partnership.

The presidency sees the insider report as a strong weapon to deploy. First, there are strong grounds for the Adelekes not to go to the coalition. Secondly, the presidency must get the Adelekes on its side to stop Rauf and eventually solidly win the state. This is the genesis of the defection politics that is playing out in the state.

We should also touch on the question of Yoruba agenda. Is there a Yoruba agenda? Yes. By who? For who?

When late Chief Obafemi Awolowo launched the Egbe Omo Oduduwa, not all Yoruba people were on the table. When Action Group went into factional war, there were the Akintolas and the Awolowos.

Eyan perete lon selu. That is the first point. Yoruba agenda exists. Tinubu must complete his eight years in office. Any Yoruba man who is working to stop him is pushing an anti-Yoruba agenda.

Above is a bitter pill that many will disagree with. The elite will fume. Yet, that is the reality.

If there is a Yoruba agenda, if Osun is the cradle of the Yoruba race and if Osun is now a battleground, the governor is right in the middle. He must pitch a tent. In this case, he may have no choice. The President must not be shamed.

In presidential tactics on display, the President wants his ancestral state to be on his side. The person holding the state is a Governor Adeleke. He can not be bought, and he is well loved. Yet , the president is demanding a relationship for a lot of reasons.

Omo buburu kosele fekun. The issue of defection is not about choice. It is like there is no option for the governor except he will align with ADC, a party that will present a Hausa Fulani man to remove a Yoruba man. The president also appears ready to sacrifice his old supporters to fall in line behind the state governor. The war at hand demands sacrifices on all sides.

What should the governor do? He can not sit on the fence. Must he support the coalition? That will amount to betraying the Yoruba agenda even if we were not there when the agenda was crafted. An Osun governor cannot be seen to working to install a Fulani man when a Yoruba man is presently in office.

What are the sacrifices on both sides? The president’s calculation is straightforward and affirmed by security reports. Aregbesola’s ADC will fail when confronting Adeleke. How will Rauf explain his legacy of half salary, unpaid pension, and huge debt? Afusa is already the new name of ADC in Osun.

If Adelekes eventually accepted the invitation of Mr. President, the Osun race will become dramatic. The governor will be reelected, and the president will stop Rauf’s AdC.

The battle is just starting. The public will see politicking at its best.

●Abdulahi Ogunsola writes from Lagere,Ile Ife