Political calculations ahead of Kogi governorship poll

As preparations towards the conduct of Kogi state governorship poll begin, political gladiators have started to position themselves as well as kick against any plan to discontinue with the zoning arrangement in place. YUSUF MOHAMMED reports

Kogi state politics is unique because it does not follow the traditional pattern. Political happenings in Kogi are quite unlike any other state. In Kogi state there are those regarded as elders who call the shots politically and determine where the pendulum swings, and any political party that wants to succeed must toe the line of the political elders and their arrangements.

Before the 2011 governorship elections, there was a strong clamour for power shift. Since the creation of the state in 1991, the Igalas have been the dominant tribe due to their numerical strength and unity.

According to Yakubu Mohammed who was a governorship aspirant in 2011, “We have had three Igalas who have been governors of Kogi State, we have had so many governors in Kogi State, military administrators, military governors and we didn’t appoint them, they were not Igalas, they came from various parts of the country. Now, the Igalas that have been governors of Kogi State did not come there through coup, they didn’t force themselves on the populace they came there through election,” he said.

With the agitation growing stronger with each passing day in the build up to the 2011 governorship election, an agreement was reached by Kogi elders. They were of the view that before power shifts to other senatorial districts, the Igala’s who have been ruling needed to complete their circle. The completion of this circle means Dekina local government must produce a governor.

Kogi people are known to keep to agreements. The Igalas in particular don’t go back on their words. 2011 election was purely a Dekina agenda. The other tribes from the Kogi West and Kogi Central senatorial zones in agreement believed that they would have a shot at the helm of affairs after the Dekina agenda.

Most aspirants in 2011 were from Dekina Local Government Area, namely Senator Nicholas Ugbane, JibrinIsah (Echocho), Senator Alex Kadiri, AlhajiYakubu Mohammed and James Ocholi (SAN).

However, in a twist of event and to the shock of almost everyone, IdrisIchala Wada emerged as PDP governorship candidate. His emergence till date is seen by many political analysts as the main reason behind the travails of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state.

Wada, though not fully accepted within the party, won the election as a result of the disunity within the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), which produced Prince AbubakarAudu as its governorship candidate.

Audu was popular amongst the masses, but some forces within his party were not fully committed to his course due to the Dekina arrangement.  Audu who has ruled the state twice is from Idah local government area, while Wada is from Dekina.

Wada who has been in the saddle for four years has been adjudged by Kogi residents as a failed governor. The clamour for power shift has also gained prominence as a result of Wada’s performance in office. Many are of the view that the Igalas have had their chance and have not really utilized it well.

AnateAdeiza, from Igbira land told Hallmark that, “the Igalas have been ruling for over 16 years with little to show for it. Former governor, Ibrahim Idris performed woefully and the current governor, Idris is even doing worse. The only Igala governor who did well was Prince Audu even though he was perceived to be arrogant. The other two are cool headed but failed in developing the state.”

However, most Igalas are of the view that before the agitation for power shift, Dekina local government should produce the next governor till 2019.

Wada got the PDP ticket because he is from Dekina where the governorship position has been zoned to for eight years. Wada is about to complete four years in office with another four years left for Dekina.

Dekina is the largest local government in Kogi which was responsible for contributing the highest number of votes to Wada’s emergence in the December 2011 election.

“Any party that goes against zoning principle will not win” said Isa Ibrahim. “Not even Buhari’s magic can work for APC if they choose a candidate that the political elders are not in support of,” he stressed.

According to the Isah Ibrahim, “Kogi politics is not like other states were anyone can just become governor. There are so many factors that should be taken into consideration. The person’s religion and local government is a big factor in Kogi politics.

JibrinIsahEchocho the winner of the 2011 PDP governorship primaries might just have a chance this time around because he is from Dekina local government. Echocho who was expected to join APC is still a member of the PDP. According to a reliable source, Echocho is planning to get the Accord Party ticket to run for governorship. He believes his popularity and the fact that he is from Dekina would earn him victory at the polls.

Hallmark learnt that both stalwarts of the PDP and the APC from Kogi West, Central and East zones are in tandem with the zoning principle. Therefore, there is a growing belief that both parties might field Igala candidates who are not just Igala, but also from Dekina local government area.

Kogi East is the Igala speaking part of Kogi with the highest population. It has nine local governments out of the 21 local governments in the state. Political parties in the state learnt their lesson in 1999, when PDP decided to field a non-Igala candidate from the minority zone and lost the election to the then All Nigerians People’s Party (ANPP), which fielded Audu from Kogi East.