Edo 2020: House of Assembly as pawn in the political chess game

With the state assembly election conducted during the general election of 2019, and lawmakers duly elected for another term of four years, it must have occurred to Governor Godwin Obaseki that he not only had 2020 to worry about, but also the possibility of an impeachment before then and he decided to preempt such possibility. Having fallen out with the party such eventuality was not lost on him.

Of the 24 members House of Assembly – all of whom are of the APC, he had only six as core loyalists. He was said to have made every attempt to co-opt the rest or at least, a majority of them to his side before the inauguration date to no avail. He had wanted them to back his candidate for Speaker, Frank Okiye but they resisted, saying they already had another person in mind.

The lawmakers, apart from being political sons of some of the aggrieved party chieftains and very much part of the gang up against him, are also said to nurse their own personal bitterness against the governor for allegedly scrapping constituency projects through which the lawmakers made money, and indeed only paid them salaries monthly.

Thus, few days ago, the governor allegedly invited three of the ‘opposition’ lawmakers to Government House to convince them to join his side such that in addition to the six already on his side, they could form the one-third ‘majority’ required to elect the leadership. But when they resisted, it was alleged, security agencies bundled them into a vehicle and off to the State Assembly Complex to perform the inauguration ceremony and elect Okiye as Speaker. This was at 9:30 pm and one of the lawmakers forced in was wearing shorts. Two of the three later addressed the press to renounce the inauguration.

“He, Obaseki, did it that way because he knows he doesn’t have the number in the House of Assembly. We have a 24-member House of Assembly, he has about five or six out of the 24,” the Government House source said.

“The other members are strong and very much together, that’s why he feared. He tried to persuade them to accept his own Speaker, but they refused and said they have their own choice. They battled it till the day they did that. The major thing is fear of impeachment.”

The political atmosphere is gradually getting intense. There is now effectively the pro Obaseki camp and the anti Obaseki camp within the APC. With the pro group constituting mainly officials of government and party officials, including of course, the Edo APC chairman, Anselm Ojezua. And in the other camp, party chieftains left out in the scheme of things. Both groups hold alternative rallies in Benin, and each is usually well attended.

“In the state, a lot of people are coming together to plan against him (the governor),” one source said. “Obaseki’s style is like one who became governor as an independent candidate.

“These house members-elect are also party members who are also part of the aggrieved. One way or another, the party leaders got these people. And the same leaders are aggrieved. So, there is the fear of impeachment. There are about eight who are still granting press conferences everywhere here.

“He has not treated them well too. Under the former administration, they allowed them to do constituency projects and were also given sundry allowances. But he came in and cut all of that off and is only giving them salaries. So, that also fuelled their agitation. They could have impeached him.

“It’s not as if leadership of the party is fighting him. They are holding fort to their positions by singing the governor’s praise. They know that there is no meal in the street and that to eat in the street, you have to hustle. But as party officials, they know that without hustling, they have alert every 30 days.”

The Oshiomhole factor

The former governor, Oshiomhole had, until the state assembly crisis, kept mute on the push to oust Obaseki, although many believe he wants him out. But following the “illegal” inauguration of Edo and Bauchi houses of assembly, he spoke in condemnation of both and called on the respective governors to reverse the decision. It triggered a war of words between him and Obaseki who accused him of bias. Oshiomhole responded by insisting that what the governor did was an illegality as according to him, “working hours of parliament is in the rules and cannot be determined by anyone.”

But even as both Obaseki and his predecessor have split hairs openly over the assembly inauguration, both have kept it at the level of what is acceptable to the party and the legality or otherwise of the inauguration. Their exchange has had little to do with Obaseki’s second term bid.

Some say while Oshiomhole is under pressure to move against the governor, his hands are tied because there might be some skeletons in the cupboard. As noted earlier, Obaseki had served as head of his economic team and speculations are rife that the reason he wanted him as governor in the first place was because he wanted someone to cover his tracks.

“Oshiomhole is not saying Obaseki should not get a second term,” another party source said. He is saying that what they did was an anomaly. It has not been established that Oshiomhole is against him, but if you ask me, I will say he is against him. He has not come out to say he is against him. Oshiomhole knows too that if the majority has their way they will destroy Obaseki.”

“The development has caught Oshiomole in the middle. He is probably disappointed with Obaseki for betraying his political base, but also aware that he dare not challenge or turn against the governor who is covering all the skeletons he left in his cupboard. Obaseki can easily destroy Oshiomole’s political career.”

Meanwhile, former APC national chairman, Chief John Oyegun, who incidentally was also a former Edo governor has come out blazing against his successor in the party’s leadership, accusing him of undermining the governor.

“Today, there is rancour in Edo State. They all boil down to godfatherism that is heating up the polity in the state,” Oyegun said in a statement last week. Obaseki is the executive governor of Edo state and he should be allowed to exercise the powers vested in him by the law. To what purpose is the APC chairman putting the state under tension?

“As a governor under APC platform, he should be allowed to run out his tenure before they decide whether to bring him back or not. There are so many antics going on and you don’t need to be a prophet or babalawo to trace where they are coming from. They are coming from the APC.”

“I want to think that they are all targeted at weakening the governor of Edo state. Ordinarily, the man in Edo should be given every support so that he can succeed to fend off the opposition PDP already around the corner. I have not heard that PDP or Edo leaders want to remove Obaseki. What has been trending is how his predecessor who happens to be the party chairman does not want him back in the office.”

Obaseki’s lifelines

Ultimately, Obaseki remains the governor with incumbency powers at his disposal. He has used that to good effect so far, not only in terms of imposing his will on the state assembly, but also buying support. As one person put it, “he is spending money now.” Asked about his chances, he said it’s “50-50.”

But in the end, the zonal politics of the state will play hugely in his favour. The calculation of Edo Central and Edo North is that it would be better to endure another four years under Obaseki and take power than risk waiting for another eight years with another Edo South candidate.

Edo is made up of three senatorial zones, the most dominant being the Edo South, with almost 60 percent of the population and populated by the Binis. The second in the perking order is Edo Central, the Esan group with about 25 percent of the population. The third is Edo North comprising of Etsako, Owan and Akoko Edo in that order, taking up the remaining 15 percent.

The return of democracy in 1999 saw the emergence of Lucky Igbinedion from the South as governor. He did eight years and was succeeded by Oserheimen Osunbor from the Central. However, Oshiomhole from the North later defeated him through the court. The former labour leader handed power back to the South with Obaseki after eight years.

The unwritten agreement therefore, is that after eight years, the South will hand over to the Central which had produced Ambrose Alli in the past. Replacing Obaseki after only one term therefore, could mean another fresh eight years for the South.

How it started

On the campaign trail en route to the government house in 2016, Obaseki was like a little baby on his mother’s back, unaware of how long and treacherous the journey to power is. His predecessor, Adams Oshiomhole had literally carried him on his shoulders and balanced him comfortably on the coveted seat of the Edo chief executive.

And being a core professional from a background of finance and economics, the new governor perhaps understood governance differently and proceeded with “global best practices.” But he must have learned sooner why politics is called the dirty game and has apparently rolled up his sleeves to play ‘dirty’ in order to survive the next election. But it may be late in the day.

Friends have become enemies and enemies now friends

Governor Obaseki is facing staunch opposition in his bid to secure second term. But not from the main opposition party in the state, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the party his backers adopted a manner of tactics to defeat three years ago, rather, from his political party and indeed the same people who, as one party member put it, “shot guns to make sure he became governor.”

But his crime, contrary to what one might think, is not lack of performance. Indeed, he has done relatively well, given the circumstances. “It is not as if Obaseki has not done well, he has done roads, bridges etc, but he has not still done well because he relegated the people he ought to pass through in doing those things. He is even calling them greedy people who he cannot share money with,” a party member who craved anonymity had told Business Hallmark.

His real crime is his refusal to ensure that the spoils of office gets to the various party chieftains and political groups who had committed resources to ensure his emergence in 2016 and had ideally expected rewards for their efforts in the form of contracts and creation of sundry schemes.

The governor had, upon taking office, adopted “global best practices in governance.” He awarded contracts to real contractors – what is known in Edo APC circles now as “Lagos people” – bypassing party leaders contrary to what was obtained under his predecessor, now APC national chairman, Oshiomhole. He scrapped all the parastatals and agencies his predecessor had set up ostensibly to settle the boys.

Under Oshiomhole, contracts for projects where allegedly awarded to these party leaders who took 40 percent from the budgetary provisions for such projects and used the remaining 60 percent to hire professionals to execute them. The former governor also held monthly meetings with leaders of the APC from the various local governments in the state, at the end of which their palms were greased.

On account of this, Oshiomhole was hugely popular within the APC in the state. He was highly regarded. It was on account of this that he managed to convince the various party stakeholders who initially did not buy the idea of having Obaseki as his successor. Obaseki had headed Oshiomhole’s economic team from 2009 and there was nothing in those years to convince them that he was going to be a good party man. He never, it was said, attended party meetings and only concentrated on his job.

But Oshiomhole gave them his words that the new governor would not disappoint. And they had committed resources to ensure his emergence. However, as it turned out, they were probably right in their initial concerns. Obaseki, just as they feared, turned out to be a ‘bad’ party man who wouldn’t take care of his benefactors, or better put, who wouldn’t release money.

These party leaders, unable to do no more than express their anger, especially given the fact that Osakpamwan Eriyo, then APC youth leader and Chairman of Road Transport Employers Association who had gone to confront the governor, ended up at Oko Prison where he cooled off for a few months, waited for the next election to pay him back.

In view of the 2020 polls, the aggrieved party leaders have rallied. Mr. Henry Idahagbon, an APC chieftain and immediate past Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice in the state in an interview recently, vowed that the leadership of the party would give the governor “the Ambode treatment.” He lamented that it was a mistake to have supported him in 2016.

“He (Obaseki) has succeeded in alienating the party. He has succeeded in marginalising other members of the party under the bogus claim that he doesn’t have the resources to satisfy the private greed of party members,” he had said. “No party member wants the governor to give them money or dash them money. I ask the question: for the eight years that he was Chairman of the Economic Team under Oshiomhole, was he dashed money?

“Comrade is somebody that if he spends a thousand, he wants to get N2,000 value from every thousand that he spent. But party members are entitled to patronage from government having worked assiduously to enthrone the government. Those who are contractors can be patronised in the area of the contract they specialised in, I am not a contractor, I have never done any contract and I don’t want no contract, but I should have access to my governor, a governor that I worked day and night for, a man who did not even know how we made him governor.”

A coalition of Oshiomhole’s supporters under the aegis of Edo Peoples’ Movement (EPM), had also decided that next year’s polls will determine who is in charge of the state politically.

In the midst of the onslaught, the governor has found solace in the hands of his ‘ideal enemies’ the PDP. Recently, chieftains of the opposition party, including Chief Lucky Igbinedion, Chief Tomi Ikimi, among others, have taken turns to pay him homage at the government house, Benin. Whilst last Sunday, he attended the Birthday Thanksgiving Service of the same person he defeated in the bitterly fought election in 2016, Pastor Osagie Ize-Inyamu and his wife.

The governor’s moves immediately sparked speculation about his joining the PDP. But insiders say it’s highly unlikely because he is not a deal maker and is unlikely to take the party’s ticket.

“Joining PDP is not in the book,” a government house source said. “The reason people think he might join PDP is because there were about three big men in the PDP that visited him amid the crisis. All of that is nothing. If he tries it, he will lose out. But Philip Shuaibu, the deputy governor will not allow him to try it. Shuaibu is a real politician who knows politics much better than the governor. He has been his strength politically so far.

“The people who went to visit him are only big men in the party. They are not the controllers of the organs of the party. Assuming it is Ize-Iyamu, that would have been fine. He is one of the controllers of the party. Dan Orbi is another person. So is Owan Orobosa. These are the people who matter in the PDP and they have distanced themselves. That tells you something.”