Opinion
On the Precipice, By Michael Ovienmhada
Is Europe about to go to war again? The clouds are ominous. As Russia retreats against the Ukrainian counter offensive, signs are, Putin wants Belarus to join in the fighting. Putin will request it. Lukashenko, the strong man of Belarus, who has been in power since 1994, owes Putin.
If Belarus joins the war, the countdown would begin for other Eastern European countries like Poland, and Lithuania to take a stand with Ukraine. NATO will be in the background in a much stronger way than they are doing now. It will be only a matter of time before more countries join the fray.
History may be a guide in how foolishness overtakes nations as it does, families.
The role of the ego.
How did the world get to a First World War, and then, a Second World War, and now, possibly, a Third World War?
Think of a cascading effect. A happens, therefore, B, C, D, and E.
Let’s take a step back to 1914. In my book: 100 Years & 5 Chronicles, (Available on Amazon), I broke it down thus:
The First World War was a bizarre kind of war. It was, to historians, the most foolish war in human history. Seventeen million people died because one man, the Archduke Franz-Ferdinand, heir to the throne of the Austria-Hungarian Empire, was killed by a lone shooter on June 28, 1914. Nobody sent him. He was angry that his country, Serbia, was dominated by the Austria-Hungarian empire.
Throughout Europe, because there had been centuries of wars between neighbours, countries had made mutual defense agreements, which meant essentially that — an attack on one country also implied an attack on another, and other countries who were allies of allies.
And so, here goes:
Emperor of Austria-Hungary: We declare war on Serbia.
Tsar of Russia: We must defend Serbia. I now declare war on Austria-Hungary.
German Chancellor: How dare they? We at this moment, declare war on Russia.
French President: France declares war on Germany, and Austria-Hungary.
British Prime Minister: Germany has attacked France, and Belgium. Britain must declare war on Germany.
Emperor of Japan: We cannot allow our friends, the British to stand alone. Japan herewith declares war on Germany, Austria-Hungary.
The United States: The United States immediately declares war against Germany, Austria-Hungary.
That was the foolishness of 1914.
This is 2022. Is it gonna be déjà vu?
On October 1, 1949, the Chinese Communist Party under the courageous leadership of Chairman Mao Zedong drove the government of the Kuomitang, (Chiang Kai Shek) out of mainland China to present day Island of Taiwan and declared a Communist Government—a centralization of power, the sharing of all resources, and a discouragement of independent thinking.
The country emptied out— the great brain drain. Those, who were unable to leave in time were killed or sent to concentration camps. Taiwan began to make rapid economic progress as China went into decline with perennial purges in murderous cultural revolutions.
The nation failed.
Chairman Mao died in 1976. In 1984, after several intrigues and power play, the great reformer and architect of modern China, Deng Xiaoping took power, introducing free-enterprise.
Four special economic zones were created in 1980 in Southeastern coastal China and consisted of what were then the small cities of Shenzhen, Zhuhai, and Shantou in Guangdong province and Xiamen (Amoy) in Fujian province.
China began its rapid assent to greatness. Today, China sits at the table with the big boys. All the progress made is set to be reversed inch by inch, as Xi Jinping, who has been on a course of re-centralizing power will soon be anointed President for life.
For some reason, economics and autocracies do not make good bedfellows.
Memories of yesteryears are not easily forgotten. He will drive away brain power. Brains build a country—brawn helps.
Only this morning, I stumbled upon an expression named: The Glass Cliff, a term coined by Michelle Ryan, a Psychologist at the University of Exeter. It is a phenomenon where a person of minority extraction is promoted to a position where the likelihood of failure is high to serve the purpose of saying: we told you so. As you can see, we tried, but these people will never be good enough. Let’s go back to what we know.
Could this have been the case of newly hired, but recently fired Chancellor of the Exchequer in the UK?
Several phenomena are unfolding in my beautiful country, Nigeria. We have the intersection of politics, law, and security—in a tale of two countries—a situation where terrorists who have perpetrated great havoc are set free from jail while agitators for the emancipation of their people are acquitted by the courts, but not able to be discharged as they may constitute “more danger” than a group of bandits who have shut down our train lines, and rendered prostrate, the entire economy of the North, including schools on permanent lockdown.
Another is one where certain States are more equal than others. State A can use AK47s for their vigilantes but State B in another part of the country – in facing the same deadly situation in the hands of terrorists, may only use batons.
I believe the last seven years of terror in the hands of these terrorists have more than made the argument for State Police. This is a matter for the legislature. Let them do their job!
In a bizarre situation unfolding, in a recently circulating video clip, yet another Nigerian man has killed his wife in America, or a more successful wife in Nigeria. I wonder what may be responsible for the prevalence of this dastardly act amongst our people in spite of our intense profession of Christianity?
Can’t we just learn to walk when things are not working? Is it likely that we could be at an inflection point of culture versus religion?
Nigeria!!! We have a problem.
Furthermore, it would appear that two of the leading candidates for President in 2023, are either overtaken by the proverbial Freudian slip, or that they may be experiencing great challenge with converting thoughts in their native tongues to the heavily dreaded English language – the language with the most exceptions among major languages of the world.
One spoke of his people voting only for people like him from the same region, while the other, in trying to eulogize a governor said of him: “he has the ability to turn a rotten thing into a bad one”. Wowwww!!!
I wonder if what they said was what they meant to say.
In the final analysis: For the sake of the world, the U.S and Russia must reopen back door channels of communication.
As we enter a new week, may Adonai- King of the universe – straighten your pathway and bless the work of your hands.
Michael Ovienmhada,
Author, Poet, Playwright, and Public Affairs Commentator.
[email protected]
