Osibanjo’s headaches of managing Nigeria’s many crises

OBINNA EZUGWU

Nigeria’s vice President, Prof Yemi Osinbajo took power as the country’s president in an acting capacity on May 7 following President Muhammadu Buhari’s trip to London for medical reasons, the second time this year. It has been weeks with him at the helm, and those weeks have been marked tension and uncertainty in the most populous black nation. The Acting President has no doubt, had his hands full and his head heavy with the weight of a nation that seems to be falling apart.

As many have observed, Nigeria is more divided now than it has ever been since the end of the civil war in 1970, and there is genuine cause for worry over where the nation is headed. In a statement issued on Monday last week, former Head of State, Gen. Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida (IBB)  captured the situation thus: “Of late, Nigeria has become so sharply divided with emotions running high on the least provocations. Once tempers are that high, the fault-lines become easily visible and with the slightest prompting, the unexpected can happen.”

From the activities of pro Biafra agitators in the East, the Niger Delta militants in the South South, Boko Haram insurgency in the North East to the menace of herdsmen murdering people and sacking communities across the South and the Middle Belt, Nigeria has, somewhat become a nation on a cliff. Yet with the recent ultimatum issued by Arewa Youths in the North asking the Igbo to leave the region before October 1, and the reactions that have continued to trail it, the unity of Nigeria has never been more threatened.

Across religious and ethnic divides, there is growing discontent with the Nigerian state as poverty, insecurity and instability are taking tolls on a country that has in real terms, remained backwards in most developmental indices since 1970, much of which has been attributed to its structural defects, hence the growing calls for restructuring.

Many people have continued to insist that without restructuring, the country is doomed. Recent events more than lend credence to this, and it is hardly surprising that strong voices such as those of IBB are raising concerns about the country’s future and adding their voices to the restructuring campaign. In the said speech, the former military leader noted that restructuring is an idea whose time had come.

“Restructuring has become a national appeal as we speak, whose time has come,” he wrote. “I will strongly advocate for devolution of powers to the extent that more responsibilities be given to the states while the Federal Government is vested with the responsibility to oversee our foreign policy, defense, and economy.

“Even the idea of having Federal Roads in towns and cities has become outdated and urgently needs revisiting. That means we need to tinker with our constitution to accommodate new thoughts that will strengthen our nationality.”

IBB’s comments came on the heels of similar call by the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) governor’s forum which was supported by their People’s Democratic Party (PDP) counterparts. Over the past few weeks, Southern leaders have met a number of times, and the outcome had been the same: a demand for restructuring. Leaders of the Middle Belt had also met a fortnight ago and came up with similar demands.

It is a race against time! Nigerians seem to appreciate the fact that perhaps, power devolution is the only route to keeping the country one. But from all indications, there is not much yet, some say, to suggest that the country’s leadership now headed, formally speaking, by Osinbajo appreciates the urgency in these demands.

The Acting President, to his credit, has been active for weeks, meeting with leaders of various ethnic and interest groups as well as political leaders in a bid to forestall crisis, and has succeeded to a large extent in dousing tension, but it hasn’t in any way stopped growing agitations across the country, and observers say it is not likely to.

“I think he is trying his best, said Reverend Austin Ehiemere, the Abia State chairman of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA). “But the issue of meeting with different groups would not solve our problems, what will solve our problems in this country is the implementation of the 2014 national conference report. Once that is done, you will find out that all the crisis in the North, South South, East and West will end.”

Attacks by herdsmen have continued. In Edo State, pupils were recently driven out of their classrooms by cattle and reports of farmers driven out of out of farms and their crops destroyed are common place. Recently ethnic clashes in Taraba led to the death of at least 18 people. Boko Haram, which the administration claims to have decimated has continued to carry out suicide attacks in Maiduguri, while pro Biafra agitators as well as Niger Delta militants continue to talk tough.

The bulk stops on Osibanjo’s table, and how he is able to navigate around these issues within the period he is in charge is key. Like all leaders before him, he has continued to insist on the ‘non-negotiability’ of Nigeria, maintaining time and again that unity of the country was sacrosanct, and those calling for its break up were breaking the law. To this effect, some say even though he has done well, his effort is inadequate.

“I think the Acting President has done excellently well, but it is one thing for him to tell the people, it is another for the people to tell him. It does not create a platform for the people to talk to the Acting President,” said Sina Fagbenro-Byron, a legal practitioner.

However, with this criticism comes the admission of Osibanjo’s own limitations. As an acting president, it would perhaps seem uncharitable to expect him to make decisions on fundamental issues such as restructuring. Especially considering that he is said to be under scrutiny by the so called Aso Rock cabal.

Within the corridor of power, there is uncertainty over Buhari’s health. He has been away in London for almost two months and until last week Sunday when he released an audio recording in his native Hausa language congratulating Nigerians on the occasion of Eid el fitri, Nigerians had not heard from him. Yet, since that Sunday, there hasn’t been any word from him.

In the event that Buhari is not able to continue in office, Osibanjo would constitutionally assume full power as commander in chief, a prospect that has begun to throw up its own controversies.

Some interest groups in the North are already kicking, insisting that power must remain in the region regardless. Not long ago, the Chief of Army Staff, Lt. Gen. Tukur Yusuf Buratai raised alarm over certain army officers hobnobbing with politicians with a view to carrying out a military coup. Suspicion between the North and the South West, the President and Acting President’s primary constituencies respectively is rife.

Last week, a coalition of Arewa Youths accused South West leaders of plotting to install      Osinbajo as president. The coalition in a statement signed by their leaders, Muhammed Shehu and Tanko Abdullahi said at end of its meeting in Daura, Katsina State on Tuesday that the Yoruba leaders were out to discredit the North in order for the Acting President to become the substantive president, but said the plan will fail.

“We are very much aware that all the attacks against President Muhammadu Buhari were planted in the media by the Yoruba and spread by southerners generally just to discredit the north in order to pave way for their son, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo to become president. But their plans will fail insha Allah.

“We shall resist every of such plans and ensure by all means possible, that the north completes its eight-year tenure and possibly even continue after then, and that the federal structure of Nigeria as it currently is, is not tampered with by secession mongers and their collaborators,” the coalition said.

The recent quit notice issued to the Igbo in the North by Arewa Youths Forum and the follow up letter asking Osibanjo to conduct a referendum for the Igbo have been generating angry reactions across the country. Calls for their arrest have been ostensibly ignored. In a statement on Wednesday, the Yoruba Council of Youths Worldwide (YCYW) alleged that the notice was a ploy by the North to undermine Osibanjo, vowing to resist such.

“We are suspicious of the action of the Northern Youths and the patronizing attitude of their Elders,” the council said in a statement jointly signed by its National Publicity Secretary, Asiwaju Samuel Oloyede and President, Aare Barr. Oladotun Hassan.

“We however hope and pray our suspicions are unfounded. Coming at a time a Yoruba man is the acting president and there is mystery surrounding the health status of the president, it will not be out place to assume the North is on a scheme to ‘make Nigeria ungovernable’ in case there is need for a “doctrine of necessity.

“Any attempt to come in through the barrels of guns, citing insecurity and instability as alibi will be resisted.”

With these allegations and counter allegations, Osibanjo may not only have to worry about those agitating for separation and how to save the country from being enveloped in crisis, but also those who are not comfortable with his position, and that very likely include people he works with. In this context, some say Nigerians must understand the Acting President’s situation and bear with him since according to them, he cannot be that effective while having to look behind his back.

“Within his capacity as Acting President, I think Osibanjo has done well in ensuring that frayed nerves are calmed,” noted Bar Okey Ilofulunwa, former Secretary, Aka Ikenga, an Igbo think thank group.

“With respect to his not talking about restructuring, we have to understand the limitations he has as an Acting President. He will not be able to go full hug with regards to the real issues.

“In crisis resolution, the first thing you do is to try and calm everybody down before you begin to address their problems. It remains to be seen how he addresses issues that trigger up the crisis.

“We have to give him time; first he needs to resolve the challenge of whether or not he will come up as substantive president should the president not be able to continue. It is only at that stage that he would be able to initiate some far reaching action that can help address the injustices that led to the agitation.

These assertions were re-echoed by Ehiemere. He notes that the Acting President is focused and if given free hand, he can do more than he is doing, while expressing concern that if he continues in an acting capacity without having the powers to address the real issues, there might be big problem.

“On his own, he is focused and given free hand, I have no doubt that he will do more than he has done, he will do well. I don’t know for how long he will continue to act,   but if he continues to act without full authority and capacity to go into some matters that have to do with moving Nigeria forward, it means that there is a big problem.”

Overall, there is a feeling that things are better under the Acting President. Unlike the president who is noted for hardline stand on issues, which had somewhat escalated tensions, Osibanjo is engaging. Nigeria’s economy had been on a downward spiral, but recent report by the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that inflation is down to 16.25 in June from 17.25 in April.

“He (Osinbajo) is definitely the kind of person we want, not an emperor. We had an emperor, but let him stay in London because he needs plenty of rest,” said Mr John-Bede Anthonio, public affairs analyst and former Managing Director, Lagos State Development and Property Corporation (LSDPC)

“A president is supposed to move around and engage people, but it is not that the President didn’t understand this, it is that there is a cabal around him preventing him from reaching out, so he doesn’t relate.”