Buhari: New dynamics emerge in the North toward 2027

   …as President Tinubu, opposition seek fresh options

The death of former president Muhammadu Buhari has created a big leadership vacuum in Northern politics, and an equally big lacuna for other power and influence contenders in the North to jostle for Buhari’s big shoes.

Buhari’s larger-than-life persona and the big shadow he cast on the politics of Northern Nigeria and by extension, the entire country, cannot be contested; however, his demise has potent ramifications for the 2027 presidential election, an electoral contest that has all the promise of defining the country.

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“No one has exerted as much influence on the politics of Northern Nigeria, commanding an armada of fanatical following as Buhari since the death of Sir Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna of Sokoto and former premier of Northern Nigeria; not even the charismatic General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, the closest was Alhaji Aminu Kano, the undisputed champion of the ‘Talakawas’ in the North”, said  Jubril Ahmed, Professor of political science in his chat with Business Hallmark.

Buhari, according to many valuations, was a child of necessity, providence and history, and his rise to political patriarchy mirrors the dynamics of the North/South subtle rivalry for power along historical fault lines.

Cult of Personality

According to Dr. Jide Onietan, an historian, the political history of the North since the Uthman Danfodio Jihad of 1804 has followed Carlylean school of historical interpretation, which emphasizes the role of a “big man,” who takes decisive action that alters dynamics of history, stressing the role of a hero and hero-worship.

“Danfodio was the first hero, who changed the history and dynamics of the North, the next strong man was Sir Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna and former premier, then came Buhari. What did these three people have in common? They emerged as strong champion and defender of Northern (Fulani) interest with fanatical zeal, and the people followed them fanatically. The interests in question are: Islam and protection of indigenous institutions and the Talakawas,” Dr. Onietan told Business Hallmark.

He noted that it was only Buhari that positioned himself as the political Mahdi for Islam and defender of the values and interest of the common people, saying he had forged this persona since his first outing as a military Head of State.

“Of course, there had been many political gladiators before him, right from the 70s but all of them sounded elitist, and disconnected from the people, figures like Umaru Shinkafi, Bamanga Tukur, Shehu Musa and many others”, Onietan stressed, noting that Buhari’s greatest asset is his spartan, near ascetic discipline, and immense simplicity, which resonated with the temper of the common people, who saw him as one of their own.

Who Buhari’s cap Fits?

Analysts are worried that many of the political gladiators currently in the swagger in the North do not in any way come close to inheriting the mantle of the departed general.

This was attested to by a member of the coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Salihu Lukman, a top All Progressives Congress chieftain before he resigned from the party. Lukman declared recently  that the coalition of opposition to President Bola Tinubu  does not have an individual, who embodies Buhari’s intimidating profile.

He also said Buhari’s death marked  an end to the era of raising someone’s hand and automatically translating it to victory during election.

Lukman, a former APC  national vice chairman, spoke last  Wednesday during Arise Television interview.

The ADC chieftain said even before Buhari died a vacuum had been created. He added that it was quite doubtful if Buhari, before he died, could still influence electoral victory in the old way.

“What we must learn, most especially in the Coalition, is that we don’t have somebody with the kind of intimidating profile like that of late Buhari, and what that means is that all the leaders of coalition need to be humble and acknowledge that they need one another and in the context of that, develop a strong team work. I think that is the challenge we are all facing. Our leaders must have a kind of team spirit.

A likely Inheritor

In the current constellation of political heavyweights in the North, who have the gravitas  and capacity to make things happen, and who can be said to aggregate the dreams and interests of the North, and step into its current dynamics, Nasir El-Rufai stands out as the pick of many analysts spoken to by this medium.

The recurring decimal in the analysis of the former Kaduna State governor is that his ability to connect with the common people in the North, and rallying politicians to a cause, is equally equidistant to the distaste with which the South views him as an irredeemable irredentist, who champions the narrow interest of the North.

For instance, after being dropped from President Tinubu’s cabinet, he had sworn to make life difficult for the president and party, which is crystallizing in the formation of national coalition that is already holding fire to the administration’s tail toward 2027, a feat that was inconceivable a few months ago.

“You may hate him, but you cannot ignore the man, El-Rufai; he understands the dynamics of power, and represents the aspirations of the North, especially the political Fulani faction; he knows how to play up religion, and understands what resonates with the people; no other politician in the North currently has this charisma.

“Look at how he rallied fellow governors to rebel against Buhari in his choice of successor, and fought for Tinubu. The closest to him is Rabiu Kwankwanso, but his Kwarriya movement is limited to Kano, and the big oil in the ointment he is not Fulani,” Prof. Jubril Ahmed of the Centre for Political Analysis & Public Policy, told Business Hallmark.

The El-Rufai persona looms large in the rising influence of the political coalition against reelection of President Tinubu, the coalition that has adopted the African Democratic Congress, ADC to contest the 2027 elections.

A top Middle Belt politician involved in the new coalition confided in this medium that “El-Rufai’s energy, ability to rally politicians around a particular cause, his doggedness, brilliance can be seen in the rising profile of the coalition. That man, hate or like him, is a cloned Buhari when it comes to the ability to champion the interests and causes that resonate with the common people in the North. Just watch and see how the build-up of political intrigues in the North will change the voting pattern in favour of ADC come 2027.

“Currently, El-Rufai is not in government, and yet has been able to wield so much influence. When he started the game of rallying against the current administration, no one gave him a chance, look at the calibre of people in ADC now; this is largely due to his energy. Kwankwanso is also a big fish in the North, but he doesn’t have the charisma and the talent of El-Rufai. He can also connect with the common people”, said the ADC chieftain, who preferred to be anonymous.

Toward 2027 Permutations

Business Hallmark’s investigations reveal that the North is angry with the current administration, and are looking for a way to oust the administration from power come 2027.

Of the political gladiators in the Tinubu administration, who come from the North: Nuhu Ribadu, Matawalle, Badaru – all former governors except Ribadi, a former presidential candidate – and others, none of them, according to findings, have strong political capital that can translate to a win for President Tinubu in 2027. The reason is that none of them embodies the larger aspirations of the North like the primacy of Islam and ability to connect  and resonate with the psychology of the common people, as they are elitist and aloof.

And given growing resentment against Tinubu in the North, ADC may have succeeded in positioning itself as the alternative, who can be trusted by the Talakawas to protect and champion their interest.  The leading lights in the North West, Middle Belt and NorthEast are already on board.

The North has a tradition of supporting their own, and with Tinubu’s pattern of appointments, hunger and despair in the land, it will only take a demagogue and irredentist like El-Rufai to whip up more sentiment along primordial lines for Northern votes to swing dramatically in favour of alternatives to APC.

El-Rufai’s great asset is that he is not contesting for president, many have interpreted his recent chummy relationship with the former vice president Atiku Abubakar as a strong signal that he may be working for Atiku.

Before his death, Buhari had been non-committal to issues of politics; while not leaving APC, and didn’t publicly alienate Tinubu’s administration, he was almost indifferent to the party and government. With many of his loyalists already joining ADC before his death, such as former attorney general of the federation and minister of justice, Malami, Rotimi Amaechi, and others, it is now clear how they felt about the government..

Old Divisions

It’s widely believed that a rump of Congress of Progressive Change, CPC, which is the Buhari’s faction of APC may pull out and pitch their tents with ADC. If this happens, it means a big loss to Tinubu’s.

But  Prof. Ahmed noted that “President Bola Tinubu is  a smart politician, and it will be to anyone’s peril to underestimate him. Buhari’s death means the CPC sheep are without a shepherd, this lacuna can be exploited by Tinubu to his advantage.

He can divide them, and his current rapprochement is another strategy. In the six appointments he made last week in agencies, three are Kano indigenes. Look at how he has made Babangida’s son , Mohamed, chairman of the Bank of Agriculture.

His view is that only El-Rufai can lead CPC for now, given his organizational ability, his talent for getting things done, and “Being a rabid Fulani irredentist, the shadowy power brokers will prefer him to lead the coalition that will return power to the North in 2031. Kwankwanso is too laid back. He has his following too, but he doesn’t have the capacity of El-Rufai.

As the permutations continue, Tinubu’s journey to reelection is proving bumpier.