US tariffs trigger sharp reversal in Nigeria-US trade as imports hit N6.8tn, exports slide by N941bn

Nigeria’s trade balance with the United States swung sharply into deficit in the first nine months of 2025, as exports fell by almost N1tn while imports from the American market surged to record levels, underscoring the growing vulnerability of Nigeria’s export earnings to external policy shocks.

Foreign trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) analyzed by The Punch show that Nigeria exported goods worth N3.65tn to the US between January and September 2025, down from N4.59tn in the same period of 2024. The N940.98bn drop represents a 20.5 per cent decline year-on-year.

Over the same period, imports from the United States more than doubled to N6.80tn from N3.01tn, an increase of 125.5 per cent or N3.78tn, leaving Nigeria with a trade deficit of about N3.15tn. A year earlier, Nigeria had recorded a trade surplus of N1.57tn with the US.

The deterioration coincided with the introduction of Washington’s “reciprocal” tariff regime, following an executive order signed by US President Donald Trump in late July that raised Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 per cent to 15 per cent. The measure took effect on August 7, 2025.

Although crude oil exports were largely exempted from the new tariff framework, the higher duties applied to a broad range of non-oil Nigerian exports, dampening demand and creating uncertainty for American importers. Analysts say the timing of the policy shift disrupted trade flows both ahead of and after the effective date.

Quarterly figures show the scale of the reversal. In 2024, Nigeria’s exports to the US rose steadily across the first three quarters, while imports remained relatively contained, producing quarterly trade surpluses and a cumulative surplus of N1.57tn by the end of Q3.

In 2025, the pattern flipped. Exports declined from N1.54tn in Q1 to N1.36tn in Q2 before plunging to N743.63bn in Q3. Imports, meanwhile, climbed from N1.42tn in Q1 to N2.16tn in Q2 and surged further to N3.22tn in Q3.

Quarter-on-quarter analysis shows exports fell by 11.9 per cent between Q1 and Q2 2025 and collapsed by 45.3 per cent between Q2 and Q3. Imports jumped by 51.8 per cent between Q1 and Q2 and rose by another 49.1 per cent between Q2 and Q3, rapidly widening Nigeria’s trade deficit with the US.

On a year-on-year basis, exports initially grew by 17.7 per cent in Q1 2025 compared with Q1 2024, but the momentum was not sustained. Exports declined by 14.3 per cent in Q2 and plunged by 56.0 per cent in Q3. Imports increased sharply across all quarters, rising by 40.9 per cent in Q1, 123.5 per cent in Q2 and 209.4 per cent in Q3.

The collapse in export earnings pushed the United States out of Nigeria’s top five export destinations by the second and third quarters of 2025, even as it remained one of the country’s largest sources of imports.

Product-level data further illustrate the imbalance. In Q1 2025, Nigeria’s exports to the US were dominated by crude petroleum oils valued at N779.38bn, followed by urea, jet fuel and cocoa beans. Imports were led by crude petroleum oils worth N726.84bn, alongside used vehicles, lubricating oil additives, soya beans and butanes.

By Q2, Nigeria’s export basket narrowed significantly, with cocoa beans and urea accounting for much of the flow, while imports expanded sharply, driven by crude petroleum oils valued at N1.34tn. In Q3, exports dwindled to relatively minor items such as soya bean flour, cocoa preparations and technically specified natural rubber, even as crude oil imports from the US surged to N2.31tn