Politics
Edo Polls: Ighodalo maintains edge, but much depends on INEC, Police
On Saturday, both the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) held their final rallies ahead of the September 21 governorship election in Edo State. At the Garrick Memorial Secondary in Benin City, where the ruling PDP held its final campaign, the massive crowd was indicative of the party in power being determined to retain it.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the Acting National Chairman, Iliya Damagum and state governors had arrived in Benin City, Edo, for the PDP final rally.
Also in attendance were the Chairman of the PDP Governors Forum and Governor of Bauchi State, Bala Mohammed; Govs. Siminialayi Fubara of Rivers; Douye Diri of Bayelsa; Peter Mbah of Enugu, and Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State; Adolphus Wabara, BoT chairman; Samuel Anyanwu, national secretary, among others.
At the University of Benin Sports Complex, where APC held its own, there was little indication, looking at the turnout, that it is the same political party under whose watch inflation has driven many into hunger and desperation.
Besides the mass of supporters, the rally had in attendance such personalities as the vice president, Kashim Shettima; Senate President, Godswill Akpabio; chairman of the party, Abdullahi Ganduje; governors of Kwara, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq; Imo, Hope Uzodimma; Nasarawa, Abdullahi Sule; Kogi, Usman Ododo, among others.
An enthusiastic party chieftain declared at the podium that the massive turnout was further confirmation that Edo had rejected Governor Godwin Obaseki’s bad governance and were ready to elect someone who would continue the good work of Adams Oshiomhole, to which the crowd cheered in agreement.
But the APC rally was also perhaps the largest gathering of red-eyed, hemp smoking street urchins in a single place in Benin, some of whom tried to harass this correspondent for “standing in the wrong place” in an open field, where several people stood. Perhaps, an indication of what to expect on Saturday.
Just outside the stadium, however, the reality of people’s resentment for the party was obvious. In a public transport from Main Gate to New Benin, a middle aged woman asked scornfully if Tinubu attended the rally. Another passenger, a man in his 50s, said he wouldn’t because he would be too ashamed to do so, and in any case, that people would stone him if he dared. The others agreed.
Interacting with residents of the state in the various areas visited by this correspondent in Benin and Uromi, it was clear that a relatively free and fair poll will see Asue Ighodalo, candidate of the PDP, achieve a comfortable victory. Virtually everyone spoken to picked him as their preferred candidate. But the respondents were also weary of the APC and the threat it possesses, even as many said they wouldn’t bother to vote, because they had lost confidence in the electoral system.
Possible Voter Apathy
The election is likely to witness low turnout of voters. The enthusiasm is lacking among the populace, many of whom said the outcome of the 2023 general election has demoralized them, which may favor the opposition.
“I used to vote in these elections, but I won’t vote again,” said Echi Ezema, who sold clothing materials at New Benin market. “Before most of us here used to attend these rallies. Some of the party leaders around would bring vehicles to convey us to venues, but not anymore. Everybody has lost interest, because votes don’t count. It’s a waste of time going to vote, as we saw in the last presidential election.”
Recent governorship elections in the country, notably those in Kogi and Imo states, have, indeed, shown that winning elections in the country may have less to do with the wider acceptance of candidates among the voting population, but more with the ability to muster raw force to manipulate the process. And many say the APC has become desperate to reclaim the state and its members are quite capable of doing just that.
“The APC is desperate to win,” said Igbinoba Godwin, a trader. “If the election will be free and fair, the PDP will easily win it, because Ighodalo is more popular. As a matter of fact, Okpebholo has further alienated voters with his bad speeches at campaigns. People say he’s not bright and should not be governor. But, because nobody knows what will happen on election day, he cannot be counted out.”
Top Candidates
The Edo election features three leading candidates on paper, the third being Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party (LP). The trio have campaigned vigorously. Peter Obi, LP’s presidential candidate in the 2023 presidential election, added vigor to Akpata’s campaign, in a state, where he remains popular, having won it convincingly in February last year. But evidence of subsequent elections in various states indicate that the support he enjoys among many voters in the country is strictly for him, and not his party. His efforts have yielded little results on the ground.
Indeed, his effort could be counter-productive and affect his own brand in the state. Outside the venue of PDP rally on Saturday, a party member was angrily calling him a “greedy person,” whose actions would only help the APC in the state. It is a sentiment shared by not just many in the PDP, but also a substantial part of the Obidient Movement in the state, some of who have broken ranks to back Ighodalo under the umbrella of the Obidient Movement for Asue Ighodalo.
Swimming against the tide, Akpata, on a good day, has the disadvantage of being in a party that has not built strong grassroots structure. His case is worsened by the fact that he’s from Edo South, same zone as Obaseki, the outgoing governor, in an election the overwhelming sentiment of the populace support power shift to the Central Senatorial zone. From available feedback, he’s a non starter.
“Akpata is only trying to divide PDP votes in Edo South, he cannot win. How can he expect to succeed Obaseki, who is from the same zone as him? Everyone is supporting power shift to the Central,” said Matthew Ikenhi, an Uber driver. “He doesn’t have the kind of following Obi has. And even Obi that had massive support in the last election didn’t win because he didn’t have structure to defend his votes. Here, Akpata doesn’t have the structure, and also the following. I was a member of the Obidient Movement. When we were campaigning for Obi, where was Akpata? Many of us, who are Obidients, are supporting Ighodalo.”
Deciding Factor
They key underlining factor in the election is a general consensus that power should shift to Edo Central geopolitical zone; a way of giving the Esan clan a sense of belonging. And apart from having more established political structure, this is another reason Ighodalo and Okpebholo, who come from the zone have advantage over Akpata, who is from Edo South, the same zone as Obaseki.
The return of democracy in 1999 saw the emergence of Lucky Igbenedion, a Benin man from Edo South as governor. He handed over to Oserheimen Osunbor, an Esan from Edo Central in 2007, but Osunbor’s election was overturned by the court in 2008, paving the way for Oshiomhole, from Auchi in Edo North to become governor. Oshiomhole, upon the completion of his tenure in 2016, handed power to Obaseki, who is Benin from Edo South. With his second term coming to an end this year, therefore, he is expected to hand power to Edo Central, and it’s, perhaps, with this in mind that he is backing Ighodalo.
The APC, which had initially produced Dennis Idahosa, a member of the House of Representatives from Edo South, had to schedule another primary as pressure mounted from within, to select Okpebholo, the current Edo Central senator as candidate.
Okpebholo had won the Central Senatorial election in 2023, in what was largely protest vote against Clifford Ordia, the PDP candidate, who wanted to return for a third time.
Many stakeholders across party lines have argued strongly for power shift to the Central zone. Of the state’s three senatorial zones, Edo South, the Benin clan, has majority of the voting population, constituting an estimated 45 percent. Next in line is the Edo North, which accounts for about 35 percent, according to recent findings, while the Central, which brings up the rear with about 20 percent or less.
With roughly 80 percent of the voting population shared between them, the Edo South and North have dominated the state power corridor since the return of democracy in 1999, with the former holding power for a combined 16 years, and the former eight years, while the Central only had a brief stint with Osunbor, who was in power for roughly one year.
However, with the coming election, there is an overwhelming support for the Esan to take power. Of the two leading Esan candidates, Ighodalo has string support in Edo South and his native Edo Central, while Okpebholo is favourite to win in Edo North, where Oshiomhole and the embattled deputy governor, Philip Shaibu come from. Their influence is likely to deliver the zone for the APC, but a wide margin of victory there is unlikely, given the general anger towards the party.
General Sentiment
Visibly upset by the economic situation in the country, Ikenhi had declared, when asked about the level of support the APC enjoys in the state that, “Nobody supports APC. Only people, who are mentally deranged will vote APC. And when you also look at the candidate they presented, it’s an insult to Edo people.”
There’s a bit of controversy surrounding the APC candidate’s academic qualifications. He has avoided mainstream media interview, and when he’s had the opportunity to address the people, he’s committed one blunder or the other, such as promising to “bring insecurity,” offering to buy transformers, as solution to problem electricity supply, and declaring that he would do federal roads and claim double of what he spent from the federal government.
Clearly educated, Ikenhi said he had vowed not to vote before now, but has recently changed his mind, because electing not to vote will be helping the APC to win.
“We cannot all stay away from voting, because that would be handing victory to the APC,” he said. “It would reflect very poorly on us if the APC candidate becomes governor.”
For the APC and its candidate, there’s a sense of desperation, a quest to win at all cost, and many residents spoken to expressed concern that the party, despite not being generally accepted, could deploy federal might to snatch power.
“Can you imagine that they (APC) are playing jingles, telling people that Obaseki is fighting the Oba of Benin, and that he is bringing Ighodalo, who will continue to fight the Oba?” Said Etinosa Fred, a trader in Uromi. “That’s desperation taken too far.”
Obaseki has had frosty relationship with the Benin monarch, a hugely respected figure in Benin, but the opposition has tended to blow this out of proportion. And ahead of the election, the APC is trying to play it up to its advantage. But there’s no indication that it’s working.
Enemies Within
However, the governor is up against not just APC, but some big wigs in the PDP, who are upset about his style of governance. He’s been accused of neglecting party chieftains, who helped him to win in 2020. It was for this same reason that the APC had denied him second term ticket the last time out, which forced him to join the PDP.
The rift between him and Chief Dan Orbih, PDP’s national vice chairman (South-South), who is a loyalist of Nyesom Wike, minister of the Federal Capital Territory, found expression in the party’s primary election. Orbih opposed the choice of Ighodalo, but Obaseki ensured that he emerged. Both camps continue to be at loggerheads. Wike had last week declared that he’s not backing the governor and his candidate, Ighodalo, but the APC in the election.
Federal Might
The APC, which is generally unpopular, is expected to deploy state power to help itself to victory in the election, and many fear this could be a trigger for violence.
A key member of the APC campaign who said he should not be quoted, told Business Hallmark that the election would be over before 12pm, with Okpebholo being declared winner.
“I can tell you that everything has been taken care of. The electoral officers are onboard. The election will be decided before 12pm,” he said.
Asked about possible blowback, he argued that the political class is already aware that Nigerians are docile, and nobody is ready to risk their lives because of politics. He explained further that President Bola Tinubu is aware that he’s losing his Northern support base, and will do everything possible to win Edo and spread further in the South South.
Last week, Obaseki, complained – when Abdulsalami Abubakar, former military head of state and chairman of the national peace committee, had visited him to get his support for the peace accord – that he may not sign the peace accord, because the police were actively promoting violence.
He alleged that police personnel, who are expected to enforce the peace accord, are working for the APC. The governor said the police force had detained 10 PDP members taken from Edo to Abuja by a special squad set by the Inspector General of Police, including an LGA chairman, without sufficient evidence or valid cases against them. He added that the police had obtained warrant to arrest 60 PDP members.
“You are very conversant with the politics of Edo State. You were here in 2020, and we had a very heated election. You know this is an off-cycle election, and there is a lot of attention,” he said to Abubakar.
“Unlike 2020, I am very worried about the developments in the state today. The party met yesterday, and we may not sign this agreement.
“This is the first time we are witnessing that the entity supposed to maintain and enforce the peace accord is now actively creating a destructive environment.
“The opposition party in the state, the APC, has always argued that they may not be as popular and didn’t win in the last election, but they have promised to use federal power to determine the outcome of this election.
The APC chieftain told Business Hallmark that although members of the party were also embarrassed about Okpebholo’s inability to communicate his vision, everybody in the camp is working to make sure he’s declared winner of the election.
“Yes, we are embarrassed too, nobody is happy with the way Okpebholo talks and carries himself, but that is secondary. The important thing is that we have to take back power, and that’s what we will do.”
He argued that Obaseki should not complain about being harassed by security agents, because he did not complain when the same security agents were used to harass his opponents for him to become governor in 2016. And that when he had the power, he also used it bully the deputy governor, Shaibu.
“He (Obaseki) is crying now, but he’s getting what he deserves. He should not be pitied. He would have bullied others if he was in a position to, that’s the reality.”
The PDP had indeed raised concerns over the deployment, last year, of Anugbum Onuoha, said to the first cousin of Wike, a known political adversary of Governor Obaseki, as the Edo State Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC).
But the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), said last week that the election results would be transmitted electronically, and the PDP should focus on other issues.
Ghost of the Past
The 2016 election that produced Obaseki as governor, saw some level of violence and vote rigging, which ultimately culminated in him, as APC candidate, backed by then outgoing governor, Oshiomhole, being declared winner ahead of PDP’s Osagie Ize-Inyamu, who many believe was the actual winner of the election.
The subsequent election in 2020, despite having a heated buildup, as Obaseki and his erstwhile godfather, Oshiomhole battled for superiority, was largely peaceful. Obaseki, having defected to the PDP after he was denied APC ticket, defeated his 2016 opponent, Ize-Inyamu again, but this time, in a fair contest.
The predominant political sentiment had tilted in Obaseki’s favour, as many saw Oshiomhole as a meddlesome figure, who wanted to assume the role of the political godfather and probably replicate President Bola Tinubu’s hold on Lagos. Hence, the catch-phrase, ‘Edo no be Lagos,’ became the rallying cry for Obaseki, who then went on to win reelection, helped by the decision of the then president, Muhammadu Buhari, to allow a free and fair contest.
Although, he performed relatively well as governor, indeed, far better than those before him, Oshiomhole’s penchant for careless talk and bad politics have made him unpopular.
But in many ways, the 2020 polls were also a defeat for Tinubu, who had days to the election and urged the electorate to vote out Obaseki, a move, which backfired. Now president, the former Lagos governor has since declared his intention to bring federal might to bear, when voters head to the polls on Saturday.
“You know me well, and you know Adams Oshiomhole well. We’re still going to fight further. Don’t worry, we’re with you, you will not work alone,” Tinubu had told enthusiastic party leaders from Edo, who visited him at Aso Rock last year. “One thing I can assure you is, yes, do you want Edo back? I am the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. I will bring Edo back to you.”
Vote Buying
The election is also expected to witness vote-buying by the leading parties. There are indications that the parties had started amassing war chests in a desperate bid to compromise voters.
Ighodalo, Clear Favourite
As noted earlier, the PDP candidate, Ighodalo, has by far more widespread support across the state. For many, indeed, the APC is not an alternative, and neither is Labour Party, whose candidate is from Edo South.
The APC would, however, hope to rely on violence, but such tactics may not succeed given the general feeling of resentment towards the party.
Ighodalo is poised for a resounding victory in Edo South and Edo Central, barring massive manipulation of results, and is likely to come close second in Edo North.
Expected Results:
If the election is relatively free, as noted earlier, Ighodalo is most likely to win.
Ighodalo – 60%
Okpebholo – 35%
Akpata – 5%
