Cover Story
Business Hallmark Special 2019 Poll: Buhari, Atiku in dead heat
President Buhari and former Vice President Atiku
…election too close to call
The long awaited 2019 presidential election is here. On Saturday, Nigerians will decide who, between the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, will lead them for the next four years. It’s a presidential race that is too close to call. From our research and interactions with voters across the six geopolitical zones of the country, we have a report of how each state in every zone is likely to vote during the all important February 16 presidential polls. Using a projected voter turnout of 55 percent – which was the turnout in 2015 -we arrived at specific figures each state and each zone is likely to give to each of the leading candidates.
By OBINNA EZUGWU and YUSUF MOHAMMED
South East:
The PDP remains ever dominant in the South East. Although the party presently controls three of five states in the zone, it remains overwhelmingly a PDP stronghold. At the level of presidency, the party has continued to sweep votes in all the states of the zone, and 2019 is not going to be any different.
Indeed, if there is anyone to change the status quo in the South East it certainly won’t be President Buhari. Buhari, who it could be said, was never popular in the zone, and his actions since he became president in 2015 – from his perceived neglect of the zone in appointments, to the extrajudicial killing of pro-Biafra agitators – have not helped to improve the situation.
As far as Saturday’s election is concerned, evidence in the zone’s streets suggest that IPOB and its campaign for election boycott represents more threat to the PDP candidate, Atiku than Buhari. But each state in the zone has its own peculiar political dynamics which will have varying degrees of impact on the fate of each candidate.
Abia: PDP 70%, APC 30%.
Abia has been a PDP state since 1999. But as far as local politics is concerned, the party’s fortune has vastly dwindled. Indeed, the party had to go the extra mile to retain power in the state in 2015, the current governor, Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu, having almost lost to Dr. Alex Otti of APGA in the governorship election.
The successive PDP governments in the state, have, in many people’s reckoning, performed way below expectations. Ikpeazu’s first four years has not made a difference. The governor will have a difficult time at the polls.
However, at the presidential level, the PDP is sure to carry the day as our feedbacks show. In 2011, Goodluck Jonathan of PDP got 1.2 million votes to beat Nuhu Ribadu of ACN to second place at 4,156 votes and Buhari of CPC to third place with 3608 votes.
In 2015 however, the PDP saw a sharp decline in its electoral fortunes on account of its inability to mobilize, polling a mere 368,303 votes to Buhari’s 13,394 votes, while other candidates had a combined vote of 9348.
President Buhari’s fortune will likely improve in 2019 even though he remains largely unpopular with the streets. It’s a clime where money plays a huge role in determining election outcomes. Several political heavyweights in Abia, including former governor, Orji Uzo Kalu, Uche Ogah are now members of the APC. The party also has state instruments at its disposal. These, among other things, may ensure that Buhari secures 30 percent of the votes. Atiku will likely take 70 percent.
Abia has 1.933 million registered voters, of which turnout of about 55 to 60 percent is projected.
Possible votes for each of the two candidates:
Atiku: 744,163 (55% turnout)
Buhari: 318927 (55% turnout)
Anambra: PDP 70, APC 30
Anambra is Peter Obi, PDP vice presidential candidate’s state. It is also Kingsley Moghalu, the vibrant presidential candidate of Youth Democratic Party’s state. At the moment, it is under APGA control and the incumbent governor, Willie Obiano who is at loggerheads with Obi has since endorsed Buhari. This presents a bit of complications.
From interactions, it is sure to go PDP. But Obiano, working with Abuja incumbency power factor will ensure that the APC will have 30 percent.
Anambra has 2.5 million registered voters. In 2011, PDP got 1.14 million votes, Buhari got 4,223. In 2015, PDP got 660,762 votes to Buhari’s 17,926, while other candidates shared 9896 votes.
Possible votes:
Atiku: 948, 195 (55% turnout)
Buhari: 406, 369 (55%)
Ebonyi: PDP 70, APC 30.
The state is another PDP stronghold which presently has 1.5 million registered voters. In 2011, Ebonyi delivered 480,592 votes for the PDP, to CPC’s 1,025. In 2015, the votes were shared 323,653 and 19,518 respectively, while the rest had a combined 20707 votes.
Buhari’s electoral fortune will vastly improve in 2019 on the back of Governor Dave Umahi’s support. However, PDP is still expected to carry the day with 70 percent of the votes, to APC’s 30 percent, given that Umahi is already pulling away from his overt support for Buhari.
Possible votes:
Atiku: 562,074 (55%)
Buhari: 240,888 (55%)
Enugu: PDP 75, APC 25.
Enugu is probably the headquarters of the PDP in the South East. The party has remained so dominant that not even APGA has been able to make any noticeable inroad. It will vote PDP largely. The state chapter of the APC is still locked in internal rift and is hardly any threat even in the best times.
Enugu at the moment has 1.94 registered voters. In 2011, the state gave PDP 882,144 votes to CPC’s 5753. In 2015, PDP had 553,003 votes to APC’s 14,157. In 2019, the PDP will likely have 75 percent of votes, while APC is expected to take 25 percent.
Possible votes:
Atiku: 801,906 (55%)
Buhari: 267302 (55%)
Imo: PDP 60, APC 40.
Imo remains an APC State, not minding the party’s internal crisis. President Buhari has the support of both the Governor Rochas Okorocha group and Senator Hope Uzodinma group. This will ensure that the president will do well in the state, even though PDP is still expected to win 60 percent of the votes, to APC’s 40 percent.
Imo has 2.3 million registered voters. In 2011, PDP had 1.4million votes. In 2015, it had 559,185 votes to Buhari’s 133,253 votes.
Possible votes:
Atiku: 749,857 (55%)
Buhari: 499904 (55%)
South East total:
Atiku 3.8m votes (3,806,6195 at 55%)
Buhari: 1.3m votes (1,377,958 at 55%)
South South
Like South East, South South is a strong base of the PDP. With the possible exception of Edo, Atiku is expected to sweep votes in all the states of the zone.
Akwa Ibom: PDP 60, APC 40.
A few months ago, Akwa Ibom, with 2.1million registered voters, could have fallen massively for the PDP, but since Senator Godswill Akpabio, the key political force in the state defected to the APC, PDP’s fortunes may dwindle.
The PDP is still expected to win 60 percent of the votes to APC’s 40 percent. In 2011, the state gave PDP 1.6 million votes. In 2015, the party polled 953,304 votes to APC’s 58,411 votes, while other candidates shared 5346 votes.
Possible votes:
Atiku: 699,510 (55%)
Buhari: 466,339 (55%)
Bayelsa: PDP 85 APC 15.
The home state of former president Goodluck Jonathan, Bayelsa is undoubtedly a PDP stronghold and this is not going to change in 2019. The party is likely to coast home with 85 percent of votes in the February 16 presidential polls, while the APC will take 15 percent.
Bayelsans are still bitter about the defeat of their brother in 2015, and the only strong APC person in the state, Timipre Sylva is not playing strong at the moment.
Bayelsa has 923,187 registered voters. In 2011, it delivered 504, 811 votes for PDP, 691 for CPC and 370 for ACN. In 2015, PDP got 361,209 to APC’s 5194, while other parties shared 646 votes.
Possible votes:
Atiku: 431,589 (55%)
Buhari: 76,162 (55%)
Cross River: PDP 70, APC 30.
Like majority of the states in South South, Cross River is largely PDP and will, from available feedback, deliver 70 percent votes for the opposition party while the APC may take 30 percent in part on account of Governor Ben Ayade’s soft spot for Buhari.
In 2011, Cross River gave the PDP 709,382 votes, 4002 to CPC and 5839 to ACN. In 2015, PDP had 414,863 votes to APC’s 28,368 while others shared 7283 votes. The state has 1,527,287 registered voters.
Possible votes:
Atiku: 588,006 (55%)
Buhari: 252,002 (55%)
Delta: PDP 75, APC 25
A number of political figures like former Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan have joined the APC in the state, helping to establish a presence for the ruling party. However, Delta remains a PDP State, with its strongest political figure, James Ibori still in the party, and is most likely to deliver 75 percent of votes to Atiku, while the ruling APC will account for 25 percent.
Delta has 2.8million registered voters. In 2011, PDP polled 1.4 million votes, a feat it nearly repeated in 2015 with 1.2million. The same 2015, APC had 48,910 votes while other parties shared 7458 votes.
Atiku: 1,173,676 (55%)
Buhari: 391,225 (55%)
Edo: PDP 55, APC 45.
APC is the ruling party in Edo State, and remains quite strong in the state. Indeed, of all states in the South South, Edo is the only one where the ruling party can dream of a possible victory, which is understandable considering its proximity to the South West. The presidential polls will be a close call, but the PDP will still edge the ruling party 55 percent to 45 percent going by the feedback from our interactions. The opposition party’s numbers may actually be more if the election is to be reasonably credible.
Edo has 2.2million registered voters, but statistics suggest there is often low turnout during elections. In 2011, PDP got 542,173 votes to CPC’s 17,795. In 2015, the opposition party had 286,869 votes while the eventual winning party came short with 208,469 votes.
Possible votes:
Atiku: 668,686 (55%)
Buhari: 547,107 (55%)
Rivers: PDP 80, APC 20.
A potential war zone, the Rotimi Amaechi-led APC in Rivers State will fight to prove a point. But there is a limit to what you can do in an environment where you are not popular with the people. Rivers remains a PDP State; the party is still widely popular with the people. Amechi will, however, achieve 20 percent for Buhari while the PDP, with a determined Governor Nyesom Wike, will secure a comfortable 80 percent victory.
Rivers has 3.2 million registered voters. In 2011, it gave PDP 1.8million votes, CPC 13,182 and ACN 16,332 votes. In 2015, PDP had 1.5 million votes to APC’s 69,238, while others shared 9148.
Possible votes:
Atiku: 1,414,720 (55%)
Buhari: 353,680 (55%)
South South total:
Atiku: 4.9m (4,976,187 at 55%)
Buhari: 2m (2,086,515 at 55%)
South West.
Buhari swept votes across the South West en-route to victory in 2015, losing only Ekiti out of the six states in the zone. No doubt, the president has lost sizeable amount of goodwill in the zone on account of his unimpressive first term showing. Regardless, the prospect of the zone producing Buhari’s successor in 2023 has served as an incentive for Buhari support. Yet, the choice of South East vice president by PDP has given rise to a situation where Osinbajo has also become a major factor. Buhari is projected to still win in all the states, but this time, the margin will be slimmer.
Ekiti: PDP 45, APC 55.
Ekiti was the only state in the South West that the PDP won in 2015. The then ruling party rode on the back of its victory at the governorship election which saw Ayo Fayose of PDP defeat then incumbent Kayode of the APC.
This time however, the reverse is the case. In the last governorship election, APC with Fayemi as candidate won back the governorship seat. The ruling party will most likely achieve 55 percent victory over the opposition.
In 2011, PDP got 135,009 votes to defeat ACN, 116,981 votes and CPC 2689 votes. In 2015, the PDP polled 176,466 votes to defeat APC which got 120,331 votes.
Presently, the state has 909,967 registered voters which is projected to be shared 55 percent to 45 percent between the APC and PDP respectively.
Possible votes:
Buhari (APC): 275,265 (55% turnout)
Atiku (PDP): 225, 217 (55% turnout)
Lagos: PDP 48, APC 52.
In 2015, despite the overwhelming goodwill Buhari enjoyed, it was a tight race in the country’s most populous state. The APC polled 792,460 votes to beat PDP which got 632,327. In 2011, the PDP nearly had a field day, polling 1,281,688 votes to ACN’s 427,203 and CPC’s 189,983 votes.
Lagos, with 6,570,291 registered voters, is a cosmopolitan state with a large number of informed residents. 2019 promises to be an even contest between the two leading candidates, but the state’s political godfather, Bola Tinubu will be out to prove a point. His influence will ensure that the APC edges PDP by 2 percent.
Possible votes:
Buhari (APC): 1,879,103 (55% turnout)
Atiku (PDP): 1,734,557 (55% turnout)
Ogun: PDP 45, APC 55.
The rift between Governor Ibikunle Amosun’s camp and Tinubu/Osibanjo camp over the state governorship primary, has split the APC ranks in Ogun. However, both groups seem to be bound by their support for Buhari.
Ogun, like other South West states is expected to fall for Buhari, but the president will find it a little tougher than in 2015 when he polled 308,290 votes to Jonathan’s 207,950 because his goodwill has diminished. The state has 2,375,003 registered voters, of which the projected 55 percent turnout will likely be shared 55 to APC, 45 PDP.
Possible votes:
Buhari (APC) 718,439 (55% turnout)
Atiku (PDP) 587,813 (55% turnout)
Ondo: PDP 45, APC 55.
Despite having a PDP governor, Olusegun Mimiko in 2015, Ondo went for Buhari, giving the president 299,889 votes to Jonathan’s 251,368. Two things have changed since then, which somewhat, balances each other out. Buhari has lost the spartan image he had in 2015. Ondo now have an APC governor, Rotimi Akeredolu.
Ondo has 1,822,345 registered voters, out of which, judging by available feedback, will be shared between APC and PDP at 55 and 45 percent respectively.
Possible votes:
Buhari (APC) 551,259 (55% turnout)
Atiku (PDP) 451,031 (55% turnout)
Osun. PDP 50 %, APC 50%.
APC has lost vast amounts of goodwill in Osun courtesy of the immediate past governor of the state, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola who had the habit of owing salaries in a predominantly civil service state. The recently held governorship election in the state which APC almost lost or actually lost in some people’s opinion is a pointer to what is to be expected on Saturday.
A lot has changed since 2015 when the state delivered Buhari with 383,603 votes to PDP’s 249,929. The states 1.680,498 registered voters is likely to be evenly shared between the two parties.
Possible votes:
Buhari (APC) 462,137 (55% turnout)
Atiku (APC) 462,137 (55% turnout)
Oyo. PDP 45, APC 55.
Like in the majority of the states in the South West, Buhari is expected to edge Atiku 55 to 45 percent.
Although the president no longer enjoys the goodwill he had when he polled 528,620 votes to defeat Jonathan, 303,376, Oyo is still an APC state. It has 2,934,107 registered voters.
Possible votes:
Buhari (APC) 887,566 (55% turnout)
Atiku (PDP) 726,191 (55% turnout)
South West total:
Buhari: 4.7m (4,779,770)
Atiku: 4.1m (4,186,945l
North West.
The North West zone is President Muhammadu Buhari’s stronghold. He has never lost to any of his opponents in this region since he started contesting in 2003. He is sure of a resounding victory here. But the gap is not going to be as wide as in 2015 because this time around, he is running against a northern Muslim and a Fulani like himself in the person of Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. The zone is the home of Islam in Nigeria and the seat of the caliphate founded by Othman Dan Fodio.
Katsina: APC 70%, PDP 30%
In Katsina, Buhari’s state of origin, it looks like he would have a sweeping victory. Even when he ran against late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, who was from Katsina, he defeated him. Atiku is no match for Buhari here despite the support he has from the Yar’Adua family. The race pictures 70 per cent victory for Buhari and 30 per cent victory Atiku.
Total number registered voters in Katsina – 3,230,230
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent:
Buhari: 1,243,638
Atiku: 532,988
Kebbi: APC 65%, PDP 35%
Kebbi which is close to Katsina also looks comfortable for Buhari. It is a core northern state full of Islamic conservatives. Most of them here see themselves in Buhari. They would rather vote for him than an Atiku who appears to be a cosmopolitan person. He is certain to prevail with 65/35 margin over Atiku.
Total number registered voters in Kebbi – 1,806,231
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent:
Buhari: 645,727
Atiku: 347,699
Kaduna: APC 55%, PDP 45%
The race here is going to be very close. This is home away from home for Buhari. He lived in Kaduna before he became president. Thos who support him are still passionate about him. The difference between now and 2015 is that he has lost the support of Southern Kaduna.
Due to insurgency in 2015, people of Kaduna came together and voted for Buhari against Jonathan who is a Christian, but with Governor El-Rufai picking a Muslim running mate and the herdsmen invasions, they are no longer interested in Buhari and the APC. However, Kaduna will go Buhari’s way with him having 55 per cent and 45 per cent for Atiku.
Total number registered voters in Kaduna – 3,932,492
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent:
Buhari: 1,189,579
Atiku: 973,292
Kano: APC 65%, PDP 35%
This is where Buhari got his highest votes in 2015. He got about 1.9 million votes in Kano. Well, this time around the margin may not be as wide as 2015. A former governor of Kano, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso who was governor when Buhari won is now on Atiku’s side. His Kwankawasiyya group is as fanatical as supporters of Buhari in the North. They go wherever he tells them to go. While Buhari is likely to get 65 per cent of votes cast, Atiku may get 35 per cent.
Total number of registered voters in Kano – 5,457,747
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent:
Buhari: 1,951,144
Atiku: 1,050,616
Jigawa: APC 60%, PDP 40%
In Jigawa State, Governor Mohammed Badaru Abubakar is going to slug it out with former governor, Sule Lamido for the bragging rights. Both of them are working for the two leading candidates, Buhari and Atiku respectively. In this state, Buhari is the favourite to win with 60 per cent to Atiku’s 40 per cent.
Total number of registered voters in Jigawa – 2,111,106
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent:
Buhari: 696,664
Atiku: 464,443
Sokoto: APC 55%, PDP 45%
In Sokoto which is being controlled by the PDP, Buhari may also win. But it promises to be tight with Governor Aminu Tambuwal pulling the strings in favour of Atiku. There are also speculations that Sultan Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar of Sokoto is in support of Atiku. There were even reports that the Sultan was in support of Tambuwal’s defection from the APC to the PDP.
The Sultanate Council of Sokoto, however, denied it. Buhari will prevail here with 55 per cent advantage over Atiku’s 45 per cent.
Total number of registered voters in Sokoto – 1,903,166
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent:
Buhari: 575,708
Atiku: 471,033
Zamfara: APC 55%, PDP 45%
Zamfara is a different ball game because of the internal wrangling within the ruling APC. Buhari defeated Jonathan with over 60 per cent in 2015. This time around he will win but narrowly. Buhari should get 55 per cent leaving Atiku with 45 per cent.
In summary, in the North West, Buhari is sure of victory in all the states and because of massive voting population and high turnout in these states, this may have serious implications for the outcome of the election.
Total number of registered voters in Zamfara – 1,717,168
Possible votes if turn out is 55%:
Buhari : 519,443
Atiku: 424,999
North West total:
Buhari: 6.8m (6,821,903)
Atiku: 4.2m (4,265,070)
North East
Unlike the North West, Atiku will win two states and tie with Buhari in another. This is his region.
Gombe: APC 50%, PDP 50%
One of the states he will have a tie with Buhari is Gombe. Governor Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo holds sway here. He controls the political structure in the state. It would be very difficult for Buhari to win in this state. Atiku and Buhari will share the spoils 50 per cent respectively.
Total number of registered voters in Gombe
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent: Buhari 383,458
Atiku: 383,458
Bauchi: APC 70%, PDP 30%
President Buhari will surely defeat Atiku here. The governor of Bauchi today, Mohammed Abubakar won as a result of the “Buhari tsunami” that swept most of the northern states in 2015.
Despite Jonathan being supported by the then National Chairman of the PDP, Adamu Mu’azu, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory then, Senator Bala Mohammed and former governor, Isa Yuguda, he still lost to Buhari. Bauchi will go in favour of Buhari with him getting 70 per cent while Atiku gets 30 per cent.
Total number of registered voters in Bauchi – 2,462,843
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent :
Buhari: 948,194
Atiku: 406,369
Borno: APC 70%, PDP 30%
In Borno state, the candidate of the APC holds sway. He has never lost any election in Borno where he is seen as a role model and anyone that seeks political office has to come via him.
The love for Buhari was said to have started when he was the military governor in Maiduguri, which was the then capital of the North-East state and till date, he is still loved as if those days were moments away.
As it stands today, Buhari will get a landslide victory over Atiku in Borno despite the Boko Haram insurgency and the problems in the IDP camps. Borno will be for Buhari with 70 per cent and Atiku 30 per cent.
Total number of registered voters in Borno – 2,315,956
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent :
Buhari: 891,643
Atiku: 382,133
Yobe: APC 65%, PDP 35%
This is a stronghold of the APC. Since the return of democracy in 1999, Yobe like Borno has never fallen into the hands of the PDP. During his tenure as the military governor of the state before he was moved to the Ministry of Petroleum in 1976, Buhari built bridges beyond his native Katsina State and perhaps that is his greatest strength today.
The people of Yobe State have continuously queued behind him and no matter the strength of his opponent, they have never shifted ground. It suffices to say that Buhari will win Yobe state by a wide margin. Yobe may go the way of Buhari with 65 per cent and 35 per cent for Atiku.
Total number of registered voters in Yobe – 1,365,913
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent:
Buhari: 488,314
Atiku: 262,938
Adamawa: APC 40%, PDP 60%
In the 2011 Presidential election, Adamawa was won by PDP. However, the insurgency in the North East which has claimed so many lives coupled with the support of Atiku made Buhari defeat Jonathan easily in Adamawa in 2015.
The story is different today as a son of the soil, in the person of Atiku is running against Buhari. Atiku is very popular in Adamawa. BusinessHallmark gathered from a reliable source that Bindo Jibrilla is secretly working for Atiku’s victory. The verdict here is that in Atiku’s state of origin, Adamawa, he is expected to win with 60 per cent while Buhari gets 40 per cent.
Total number of registered voters in Adamawa – 1,973,083
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent:
Buhari: 434,078
Atiku: 651,117
Taraba: APC 35%, PDP 65%
This is a predominantly Christian state where politics of religion also plays a big part in the electoral process. The religious factor will work in favour of Atiku. While Buhari and Atiku are both Muslims, the people of Taraba would feel more comfortable with an Atiku as president due to his liberal ways.
Aisha Jumai Al-Hassan who was the Minister of Women Affairs under Buhari is also very influential in this state. Although she is not a member of PDP, she is still loyal to Atiku. She made this known last year to the press while she was still serving Buhari.
With the support of Governor Darius Ishaku, Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma and Jumai Alhassan, Atiku is certain of making 65 per cent to Buhari’s 35 per cent. Both candidates would have a very tight race in the North East.
Total number of registered voters in Taraba – 1,777,105
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent:
Buhari: 342,092
Atiku: 635,315
North East total:
Buhari: 3.4m (3,487,779)
Atiku: 2.7m (2,721,330)
North Central zone
The North Central region prior to the 2015 general election was a stronghold of the PDP. However, that influence waned as the APC won all the states in the North central. Today, two states are back in the hands of PDP.
Plateau: APC 40%, PDP 60%
It would be recalled that Plateau is a state divided along religious line. While Buhari was able to get about 45 per cent in 2015, this time around he will get a lot less because of the clashes between the Fulani herdsmen and Berom farmers in the state.
The most recent clash was late year when over 86 people died. The locals accused the president of taking sides with the herdsmen. The battle here looks like an easy one for Atiku because Plateau is determined to give Atiku nothing less than 60 per cent of the votes, while leaving 40 per cent for Buhari.
Total number of registered voters in Plateau – 2,480,455
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent:
Buhari: 545,700
Atiku: 818,550
Nasarawa: APC 45%, PDP 55%
The Governor of the state, Tanko Al-makura became a governor under the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) a party which Buhari formed six months to the 2011 general elections. Nasarawa was the first state that was captured by Buhari’s CPC in the 2011 general elections.
But in 2015, he lost to Jonathan here. Jonathan polled a total 273,460 to beat Buhari who scored 236,838. Nasarawa, although slightly tough, would also favour Atiku with 55 per cent, while conceding 45 per cent to Buhari.
Total number of registered voters in Nasarawa – 2,390,035
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent:
Buhari: 400,402
Atiku: 489,380
Abuja: APC 45%, PDP 55%
Abuja, the seat of power, is likely to be almost evenly split between Atiku and Buhari.
BusinessHallmark found out that Buhari has more posters and billboards than Atiku in Abuja. While Atiku has support within the Federal capital territory, Buhari has so many supporters in places like Gwagalada, Kubwa, Bwari and many other areas.
The FCT just like it’s neighbor Nasarawa is likely to go Atiku’s way too with him having 55 per cent and Buhari 45 per cent.
Total number of registered voters in Abuja- 1,344,856
Possible votes if turn out is if turn out is 55 per cent
Buhari: 332,851
Atiku: 406,819
Kwara: APC 40%, PDP 60%
This also used to be another stronghold of the PDP. However, the PDP lost Kwara State to the APC following the defection of former Governor Bukola Saraki and his followers. Now it is back to PDP as Saraki and his loyalists dumped the APC.
Saraki’s influence cannot be underestimated in Kwara. Without his support it is almost impossible for Buhari to defeat Atiku in Kwara.
Apart from Saraki’s poltical strength, many residents of Ilorin, the state capital who spoke with BusinessHallmark are not also happy with Buhari’s performance in office. They are of the view that he does not deserve a second term.
According to Business Hallmark findings, Atiku is expected to coast home with about 60 per cent of the total votes cast to Buhari’s 40 per cent.
Total number of registered voters in Kwara: 1,406,457
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent:
Buhari: 309,420
Atiku: 464,131
Benue: APC 30%, PDP 70%
Buhari defeated the candidate of the PDP in Benue in 2015. Four years down the road, it does not look as rosy for Buhari and the APC as it was. Unlike four years ago, it has become difficult for members of the APC to campaign for Buhari. The major reason for this is the herdsmen and farmer’s crisis.
Benue residents perceived one sidedness on the part of Buhari in handling the issue. Benue is another state that would be determined to give Atiku victory with 70 per cent, leaving Buhari with 30 per cent.
Total number of registered voters in Benue – 2,480,131
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent:
Buhari: 409,222
Atiku: 954,850
Kogi: APC 50%, PDP 50%
This is going to be the most keenly contested states in the North Central. Governor Yahaya Bello is doing everything within his power to ensure that Buhari defeats Atiku in Kogi State. It is not going to be easy to achieve this as the APC is not as popular as it was when it was new on the scene.
The governor’s actions in the state have affected the party’s fortunes. There are many stakeholders in the three senatorial zones working round the clock to see that Atiku defeats Buhari. To them, a victory for Buhari is a victory for Bello, while Buhari’s loss would be Bello’s loss.
In Kogi it looks like a 50/50 chance for the two candidates. It may go either way.
Total number of registered voters in Kogi – 1,646,350
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent:
Buhari: 452,746
Atiku: 452,746
Niger: APC 55%, PDP 45%
Although Buhari won Niger state in 2015 by defeating Jonathan, he faces a litmus test this time around. This is because Niger is home to two former Head of States, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida and Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar who are reportedly opposed to Buhari’s re-election.
However, he still has massive support on the streets irrespective of what the power-brokers say. It is safe to say that Buhari will emerge winner here but not with a wide margin.
Niger State is the only state in the North Central that Buhari is likely to win with 55 per cent, leaving 45 per cent for Atiku.
Total number of registered voters in Niger – 2,390,035
Possible votes if turn out is 55 per cent
Buhari: 722,985
Atiku: 591,534
North Central total:
Buhari: 3.1m (3,173,326)
Atiku: 4.1m (4,178,010)
