PDP: Northern faction to move to ADC, as Makinde, its only southern gov, plots to defect

At last, the fate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) may have finally been decided, as Gov. Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, its only remaining Southern governor, may eventually defect to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), thus leaving only the three northern governors in the party.

With the court recognition of the Nyesom Wike faction as the authentic party leadership, it is obvious that the battle for the soul of the party is now between Wike and the northern governors of Bauchi, Adamawa and Zamfara states, namely Bala Mohammed, Umaru Fintiri and Dauda Lawal, respectively.

However, political observers believe that the party may be abandoned by the northern governors too, who may join the ADC, leaving Wike with its carcass. Although Bala Mohammed is touted to be nursing presidential ambition, he may have to give it up if Atiku runs on the ADC ticket while Wike controls the PDP, leaving him without a platform.

It was also gathered that the remaining PDP governors may join the ADC, depending on what happens next, since they have reportedly lost access to the PDP structure.

Last week, it emerged that Gov. Makinde is plotting to move to the ADC and may run as the vice-presidential candidate with Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, which may bury his own ambition for 2027. This new pairing completely throws the political calculations for the 2027 polls out of balance and sends pundits back to the drawing board on possible outcomes.

Irreconcilable Differences

For quite some time now, the two factions of the party led by these two former friends, Nyesom Wike and Seyi Makinde, have been at loggerheads over which is authentic, leading to the formation of two parallel executives.

Their leaders, Wike and Makinde, also took the issue personally by engaging in a war of words that further heightened tensions between them and their supporters.

With the new development, it now appears that the party, which had muddled through since losing power in 2015 and, to some extent, continued to stand on two legs, now has no legs to stand on at all.

What has, however, given the group led by Wike an edge and hope of sustaining the party are recent court verdicts and recognition by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

However, with almost all the governors gone, there is little hope for its electoral capital in 2027, as Wike is reportedly committed to supporting President Bola Tinubu’s second term.

While Wike is strongly working for President Tinubu’s re-election, what worries members of the party is what they describe as the slippery position of Makinde, with rumours trending that he has started hobnobbing with the leadership of the ADC to become Atiku’s running mate. Although this has been debunked by the Atiku camp, it has raised fresh anxiety in the party.

However, there has been no reaction from Makinde’s political camp, except for a statement from the PDP in Oyo State, which many believe may not reflect Makinde’s true intentions.

All Eyes on Gov. Makinde

With the simultaneous visits of Atiku and Makinde to former military president, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, last week, and the source of the news, former governor of Ekiti State, Ayo Fayose, a close confidant of Makinde, observers are inclined to believe the report.

While the authenticity of the news is not yet clear, it suggests that Makinde, who had been nursing the ambition to be the PDP presidential candidate and had led efforts at the party’s National Congress in Ibadan last November to elect national officers in preparation for the 2027 polls, may be losing faith in the party following INEC’s and the courts’ positions.

Fayose had come out with a story titled, “Between Atiku and Makinde: Untold Story of What Happened in Minna,” alleging that Makinde will run with Atiku after they secure the ADC ticket.

Consideration was reportedly given to the fact that Peter Obi would not accept to be Atiku’s running mate and might not be acceptable to the North as Atiku’s successor.

“Also, Atiku is 70 per cent certain of getting the ADC ticket, having ensured the non-zoning of the party’s presidential ticket.

“Makinde agreed to join the ADC on the condition that he would be handed the party’s vice-presidential ticket as Atiku’s running mate. This is expected to be presented to Atiku’s inner caucus for further discussions and ratification.”

According to Fayose, “the governor also assured that, for the ADC primary, he will deliver the South-West delegates and use the influence of his wife, who is from Rivers State, to secure delegate votes in the South-South.”

He posited that, for the general election, using him to “divide the South-West votes will give the ADC the needed advantage.”

Conflicting Expectations

Since the Minna meeting story broke, there have been several reactions, both for and against. The Oyo APC has castigated Makinde, saying the alleged agreement between him and Atiku would allow the latter to fleece the financial resources of the state in the buildup to the 2027 election cycle, adding that the plans would be resisted at all costs.

In a statement released by its Publicity Secretary, Olawale Sadare, in Ibadan, the state capital, the APC described it as regrettable that both Atiku and Makinde could allow selfishness and desperation to cloud their consciences and “dance on the grave of the PDP,” which they allegedly strangulated in 2023.

The statement further read: “Atiku Abubakar, on his part, is desperate to be on the ballot again in 2027 to enable him set the record as the man who contested presidential elections the highest number of times in the world and possibly keep himself busy at an advanced age.”

In response, the Oyo State PDP Publicity Secretary, Michael Ogunsina, described the APC’s allegation as reckless and unfounded.

According to Ogunsina, the PDP remains focused on governance and the continued development of Oyo State. He said, “No amount of propaganda, panic, or politically motivated fiction can distract the party from delivering for the people.

“Oyo PDP strongly condemns the reckless and unfounded allegations by the state chapter of the APC regarding a phantom plot to ‘hand over the state’s vault ahead of the 2027 elections.’”