Business
Nigeria’s economic pain is self-inflicted – Afreximbank Chief blasts policymakers
The country’s growing hardship is “not the result of unforeseen shocks but of deliberate policy choices.”
Speaking at the Vanguard Economic Discourse held at the Civic Center in Victoria Island, Lagos, Wednesday, Dr. Yemi Kale, Group Chief Economist and Managing Director of Research and Trade Intelligence at Afreximbank, delivered a strong critique of Nigeria’s economic management.
Addressing a room filled with policymakers, economists, and industry leaders, Kale described the Nigerian economy in 2025 as being at a “critical strategic juncture.” He emphasized that this situation is shaped not only by global turbulence and domestic vulnerabilities but also by repeated failures in governance and foresight.
“If I were to summarize the defining theme of 2025 in a single word,” Kale stated, “it would be turbulence. Closely followed by uncertainty.”
But the real bombshell came as he accused Nigerian policymakers of triggering crises through poor planning and reactionary governance.
“The disruption is not always from external shocks,” Kale said. “Often, the hardship stems from policies introduced by the state itself… These are not unanticipated events—they are planned decisions.”
The address did not spare any level of government, with the economist condemning a pattern of after-the-fact interventions and short-term populist policies that worsen rather than solve Nigeria’s structural issues.
“We often respond not with foresight, but with reaction. Interventions are frequently triggered only after economic distress erupts into social unrest,” he added.
Kale pointed to the COVID-19 lockdowns as a clear example, where desperation—rather than defiance—led to widespread unrest. He emphasized that for many Nigerians, daily survival is a negotiation, not a certainty.
“The stark reality is this: most Nigerians lack the economic buffers—be it savings, social protection, or institutional support—required to withstand macroeconomic shocks,” he said.
According to Kale, policy uncertainty and inflation are driving a defensive economic posture across all levels—from households to financial institutions.
“Businesses freeze hiring, investors flee to safer assets, and banks tighten credit. It becomes a vicious cycle of contraction and fragility,” he warned.
He also took aim at the government’s growing reliance on short-term fixes such as cash transfers and public sector expansion, calling them “politically expedient” but ultimately destructive.
“While these measures may provide temporary relief or political cover, they exacerbate fiscal deficits, undermine macroeconomic stability, and erode public trust,” he declared.
Perhaps most controversial was his direct challenge to the ruling class’s understanding of everyday Nigerian life.
“There is a persistent tendency among governments and elite decision-makers to underestimate the lived experience of hardship at the base of the socioeconomic pyramid,” he said, drawing audible reactions from the crowd.
Dr. Kale called for a paradigm shift toward anticipatory governance and human-centered development that is proactive, inclusive, and grounded in the realities of the average Nigerian.
His message was as clear as it was uncomfortable: the hardship gripping Nigeria today is not just a consequence of global turbulence—it is, in many cases, a product of domestic inertia, institutional fragility, and policy failure.
“The attempt to manage volatility through short-term, politically motivated means often ends up entrenching the very hardship we claim to be solving,” he concluded.
As Nigeria stares down yet another year of economic uncertainty, Dr. Kale’s words may well echo as both a warning and a rallying cry for policymakers to stop reacting—and start governing.