Politics
Gov. Adeleke in limbo over PDP, APC opposition to his planned defection
…as Aregbesola’s move to ADC sends panic in the state
In the past few weeks, rising political tension and confusion have enveloped Osun State over the planned defection of Governor Ademola Adeleke from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC). This coincides with the sudden emergence of the former governor and former Interior Minister, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, as one of the interim executive members of the new coalition, the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
This was further compounded by the mobilisation rally in the state tagged “New Homecoming,” aimed at drumming support for his new political party. The rally attracted a mammoth and politically intimidating crowd, sending a clear signal to both existing parties, particularly the governor, that the state may be ready for change.
Aregbesola, who has just assumed the position of the interim National Secretary of the ADC, is now seen as a potent threat to the two dominant parties in the state.
Reign of Uncertainty
While uncertainty looms in the PDP, where Governor Adeleke’s membership status is now a subject of speculation, the APC is also on edge. There are fears that Adeleke’s defection, which would automatically make him the party’s leader in Osun, may thwart the ambitions of those eyeing the party’s governorship ticket for 2026 — particularly former governor and current Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Gboyega Oyetola.
What is more worrisome for both the PDP and APC is Aregbesola’s sudden shift to the ADC. Once considered the third force and a decisive powerbroker in Osun politics, Aregbesola is determined to rattle the two dominant parties. He ruled the state for eight years, building a formidable grassroots network and asserting his influence across Osun.
It was this strong base that he leveraged in 2023 to help Adeleke defeat Oyetola with impressive votes and a wide margin.
Aregbesola’s entrance into ADC, coupled with his successful mobilisation drive, which saw massive turnouts, has now become a major concern for both the PDP and APC. His rallies come at a time when both parties are yet to resolve the confusion surrounding Adeleke’s defection.
Osun’s Test for ADC
Aregbesola is believed to be working seriously to outmanoeuvre the APC and PDP in the coming governorship election and fulfil his promise to win Osun for the ADC. This will be ADC’s first major electoral test ahead of the 2027 general elections and may signal a shift in Osun’s political pendulum.
Fortune seems to favour him, given the crises within both parties, which leave them vulnerable to defeat. Although Aregbesola cannot return to power, having served two terms, his party’s victory would firmly establish him as the new political godfather in the state.
With the PDP and its supporters unsure of Adeleke’s next political move, many fear a mass exodus should the governor defect to the APC. Conversely, APC members are vowing to reject Adeleke, worried that his defection would derail their plans and jeopardise the ambitions of key stakeholders.
Currently, the state is in political limbo, with no functioning local government structure due to a court ruling on the tenure of newly elected officials under Adeleke.
President Bola Tinubu, who is reportedly wooing Adeleke to defect in a bid to consolidate his re-election prospects, is caught between this plan and his cousin and protégé, Oyetola, who insists on returning to complete his truncated tenure after losing re-election to Adeleke.
Stumbling Block
Party loyalists in Osun are angered by the fact that Adeleke’s proposed defection was planned in Abuja without their input. They have resolved to oppose his entry into APC, which remains the biggest stumbling block to his move.
It is understood that Adeleke, having revealed his intentions, now faces a dilemma. A majority of his supporters and PDP members are unhappy with his plan, leading to divisions within the party, compounded by APC’s rejection. If Adeleke fails to defect with the full PDP structure — as seen in Delta and Akwa Ibom — his move could fail to secure Tinubu’s backing for 2027.
So far, only a handful of Adeleke’s political appointees support the defection. Most of his allies insist he should stay in the PDP and contest the 2026 election on the party’s platform, regardless of threats from the presidency about a possible state of emergency over the local government crisis.
Although Adeleke remains very popular at the grassroots, his refusal to join APC may provoke the full weight of federal power, which could undermine his influence and weaken his chances in 2026.
There are fears that without firm agreements guaranteeing him an automatic ticket in APC, he risks being sidelined by the party hierarchy. If this happens, returning to the PDP could prove impossible, as the party might have settled on a new candidate by then.
Few Tight Options
Adeleke’s last resort could be to join forces with Aregbesola in the ADC and seek the party’s ticket. However, this option is slim due to their recent disagreements over state spending, accountability, and infrastructure performance during their respective tenures.
Adeleke’s supporters worry that Osun APC leaders, including Oyetola, former National Secretaries Iyiola Omisore and Bashiru Ajibola, and the state chairman, are united in their opposition to Adeleke’s defection. They view him as a political lightweight unfit to lead them.
Nevertheless, his elder brother, Dr. Deji Adeleke, Ogun State Governor Dapo Abiodun, and other influential figures are reportedly lobbying Tinubu to secure an automatic ticket for Adeleke if he joins APC. However, political observers warn that Osun’s political dynamics are far more complex than in other states where defections have succeeded.
Even Aregbesola, who is familiar with Osun’s political undercurrents, has warned Adeleke against joining APC. He noted that while Adeleke’s defection would be advantageous to the ADC, it would not serve Adeleke’s personal interest.
“I know that the incumbent governor, Ademola Adeleke, has concluded his plan to go to APC. Leave them to their agitation. Our aim should be to take over Osun State before the vote on August 8, 2026. They already know they are on their way out,” Aregbesola said, referring to both APC and PDP.
Akande’s Warning
Former Osun governor and elder statesman Chief Bisi Akande has also cautioned Adeleke against defecting to the APC. Akande, who was the first national chairman of the party, described the move as “politically dangerous, morally confusing, and strategically ill-advised.”
“Let him test his popularity at the poll first before defecting into APC. His defection now to APC after benefiting from the platform of the now-crippled Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) would undermine the party’s credibility and insult the loyalty of long-standing APC members in Osun State,” Akande stated.
Analysts Weigh In
A political analyst, Dr. Thomas Olayode of the Nigerian Institute of Journalism (NIJ), Ibadan, told Business Hallmark that Adeleke’s planned defection looks like a “booby trap” to edge him out of the 2026 race.
“If he is wise, he should know that Baba Akande has said it all and has also shown him where the pendulum would swing if he joins the APC,” Olayode said.
“Adeleke should not deceive himself. There is no room for him in APC, and he should be wise enough to take a cautious decision.”
Olayode also cited a recent interview with Senator Iyiola Omisore, who described Adeleke as a “political orphan.” Omisore stressed that if Adeleke must join APC, he should engage the party’s local structure rather than rely on external influence.
“APC is not divided in Osun State. I’m not saying Adeleke cannot join the party. He has the constitutional right to associate with any party, but it is not by going to look for friendship in Ogun or Abuja to join Osun APC. You cannot be meeting Governor Dapo Abiodun to anchor you into our party. Politics is local, and joining a political party must be through the grassroots,” Omisore said.
Also speaking, a renowned legal luminary, Chief Niyi Akintola (SAN), a key APC leader and disciple of the late Attorney General, Chief Bola Ige, told Business Hallmark that while cross-carpeting does not apply to governors or the president, those joining APC must be ready to align with its principles and ideology.
Appointees Declare Loyalty
In a statement signed by the chairman of the Forum of Special Advisers to the Governor, Dr. Adekunle Akindele, after a meeting of political appointees, the group expressed unwavering loyalty to Adeleke.
“We, the Forum of Special Advisers to the Osun State Governor, with great pride and conviction, hereby declare our full support for the Governor’s leadership, decisions, and political pursuits, regardless of any political party you affiliate with at this historical time in the life of Osun State.
“Furthermore, we support your right to make decisions in the best interest of Osun State and stand ready to rally behind you in any political direction you choose to pursue,” the statement read.
However, analysts note that this vote of confidence does little to ease the political challenges confronting Adeleke, especially with the ongoing crisis in the national PDP and the exodus of key figures like Atiku Abubakar.
