Politics
2027: North seeks alternative to President Tinubu
– Atiku, Jonathan favoured
When some elites of the north under the umbrella of League of Northern Democrats (LND) held their second meeting a fortnight ago to fine-tune strategies to politically unite the region, it was both an opportunity to take a position ahead of the 2027 general election and a platform to address emerging internal contradictions within the region.
On the social front is a growing friction between the Hausa and Fulani groups, while on the political front the increasing discontent among the populace with the Bola Tinubu administration, with a number of political heavyweights positioning to cash in, even as it understood that some groups are plotting to draft Goodluck Jonathan, a former president, to complete the South’s second four years instead of the incumbent, Tinubu.
Business Hallmark, however, learnt from reliable northern sources that Atiku Abubakar, former vice president and the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2023 election is gaining support across party lines in the region, with former President Muhammadu Buhari also said to have switched support to him. Yet, the profile of Hamza Al-Mustapha, 64, a retired Army Major, who served as Chief Security Officer to late Head of State, General Sani Abacha, from 1993 until his death on 8 June 1998, is also rapidly growing.
In recent weeks, Atiku had held strategic meetings with Buhari, Tinubu’s predecessor; Ibrahim Babangida and Abdulsalami Abubakar, former military heads of state, etc, while individuals like former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, former Kano governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who were hitherto in different political platforms, have held strategic meetings in what Business Hallmark gathered, are part of an ongoing political realignment in the region ahead of 2027.
“El-Rufai has following in the north, but it’s not widespread and he’s unpopular in the South,” said Hamza Mohammed, a political observer based in Kano. “Before now, many people didn’t like Atiku, but that is changing. Atiku also has wider acceptance in the South, which makes him the right person to back at this time.”
Atiku was beaten to second place by Tinubu in the contentious 2023 presidential election. Buhari, then outgoing president, had backed Tinubu, his party’s candidate, despite initially favouring a northern successor in then senate president, Ahmad Lawan, but was overruled by northern governors, who insisted on power shift to the south, fearing possible collapse of the ruling APC. But with Tinubu apparently determined to consolidate power at the centre to the detriment of the north, the former president, it is understood, has accepted to close ranks with other stakeholders in the region.
El-Rufai, another prominent APC figure, who had been a staunch supporter of Tinubu in the lead up to the election last year, but evidently feels betrayed after being left in the cold by the president, has also been making moves of his own preparatory to 2027. Social media influencers have over the past few days, flown the kite of a potential run with Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the Director-General of World Trade Organisation, and even Peter Obi, a very unlikely scenario.
Meanwhile, on June 27, he received Rabiu Kwankwaso, leader of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, who relying on massive Kano support, came fourth in the 2023 presidential election, at his home in Abuja, all of which builds up to a definite political realignment to challenge Tinubu in 2027.
“There is evidence of rallying of forces, regrouping of political forces from the North trying to use former President Buhari as a rally point in order to evict the government of Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu,” said Shehu Sani, former Kaduna Central Senator in an interview on Arise TV recently.
Sani, who cautioned against the move in the interest of national cohesion, noted that the politicians, “hope to resurrect the political charms in the hearts of the masses and portray the government as the one that has been undermining the North and the one that has not been living up to his campaign promises.”
Sani, a political opponent of El-Rufai, has continued to maintain that the north should back Tinubu to complete his two terms before seeking power in 2031, and advice unlikely to be heeded by a section of the elites, who seem determined to ride on the anger in the street to effect leadership change in 2027.
But beyond this internal strife, the policies of President Tinubu have brought unprecedented hardship across the country, having worsened the already dire economic situation inherited from Buhari, and nowhere is the impact being felt more than in the north of the country, as demonstrated in the recent End Bad Governance protest held from the 1st to the 10th of August, during which riotous scenes were witnessed in many parts of the region. Many people, who waved Russian flags, called for military takeover of the country, in what was both an expression of frustration fuelled by hardship and loss of faith in the Tinubu government, and a desperate yearning for change of leadership.
“The End Bad Governance protest in the North had similar impact in the region as the EndSARS did in the South,” said Aisha Yesufu, a political activist and supporter of Peter Obi, Labour Party presidential candidate in the last election. “What you saw with the protest was the youths of the North saying that enough is enough. They are tired of being used. They are now challenging their religious leaders and confronting them, unlike before.”
The North, particularly the North West, contributed much of the votes that saw Tinubu over the finish line in the contentious 2023 presidential election. Swayed by the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the ruling APC, and with a political elite determined to maintain relevance, the region backed Tinubu ahead of Atiku, his opponent, who is from the North East.
But with the Tinubu administration failing to deliver the goods, even as he prioritizes presidential opulence in the midst of hunger and desperation, anger has continued to grow. On social media, many prominent Northern voices that hitherto supported the former Lagos state governor, are turning their backs on him, while a growing number are rooting for Atiku, who is expected to throw his hat in the ring once again in 2027.
Some Northern politicians had also expressed frustration with the Tinubu administration, citing ‘unfair policies and marginalisation,’ as well as nepotism and filling his cabinet with Lagos indigenes, among other reasons.
Few months ago, Prof. Khalifa Dikwa, the Dean of the Borno Elders Forum, in a television interview, disclosed that the Northern elite were unhappy with Tinubu because of his “misfit and weak appointees” as well as his “anti-people policies.
Dikwa added that even “the southern elite should be annoyed because Nigeria is more than Lagos”, describing it as “provocative.”
Earlier in April, a spokesman for the Northern Elders Forum, Abdulaziz Suleiman, said the forum regretted supporting Tinubu, adding that with the increased security challenges in the region, the North had learned its lessons.
“The North made a mistake in voting Bola Tinubu to the presidency in 2023, and it is unlikely that they will repeat the same error in the future. They have learned from their past missteps and will strive to select a candidate, who can unite the country and govern in the best interests of all Nigerians,” Suleiman said in an interview.
He emphasized that the North would prioritize unity and agreement in choosing the country’s next top presidential candidate.
“Moving forward, the North will be more cautious in selecting a candidate for the presidency. They will prioritize someone, who is seen as more inclusive, less controversial, and more aligned with the interests of all regions of the country,” he stated.
Strategic Engagements
Plotting the way forward, some leaders of the region under the LND gathered at the Yar’Adua Centre a fortnight ago for a summit, which Business Hallmark learnt, was part of an ongoing effort bring the region under one umbrella and present a united front ahead of 2027.
Convened by Dr. Umar Ardo, the forum unanimously appointed Ex-Kano State governor and one time Minister of Education, Ibrahim Shekarau, as Protem Chairman while Ex-Member of the House of Representatives, Emmanuel Jime, is to serve as Protem Secretary.
A communique issued after the meeting read in part, “Following the second meeting of The League of Northern Democrats (LND), convened by Dr. Umar Ardo, the following resolutions were adopted:
“Adoption of the Name “League of Northern Democrats (LND)…
“This name reflects our collective commitment to advancing the political, economic and social interests of Northern Nigeria within the framework of a united and democratic Nigeria.”
Dr. Ardo, the convener, who spoke to journalists after the meeting, explained that the meeting was convened by people of like minds from the North that came together to solve northern problem.
In his own remarks, Shekarau noted that the general concern is about development in Northern Nigeria, as according to him, “There are several communities that existed several years ago before the amalgamated of Nigeria.
Jonathan under pressure
Meanwhile, some elements in the region are said to favour backing Goodluck Jonathan, who is constitutionally only eligible to hold office for four years, having served as president from 2010 to 2015.
Recently, the governor of Bauchi state, Bala Mohammed, who had previously declared that he would run for president in 2027 because the APC had failed, said he would not contest the election if Jonathan eventually caves in to the pressure to contest.
Mohammed, who spoke after an event organised by an NGO, Save Africa Initiative (SAI), urged Jonathan to consider running for president in 2027, as according to him, the former president has more experience and would do a good job if he had a second mandate to manage the country.
