Otedola says Dangote’s 650,000 bpd output may lift naira to below N1,000/$

Billionaire investor and chairman of First Bank Holdings, Femi Otedola, has expressed optimism that the naira could strengthen to below N1,000 to the US dollar before the end of 2026, pointing to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s attainment of full operational capacity at 650,000 barrels per day.

Otedola shared the view in a post on X on Thursday while congratulating Aliko Dangote on what he described as a landmark achievement for Nigeria and the African continent.

The naira has shown signs of recovery in recent weeks. Market sources said the currency traded at about N1,354 to the dollar at the official market on Thursday, while rates at the parallel market hovered between N1,430 and N1,440 — the strongest levels recorded in over two years.

According to Otedola, the refinery’s capacity to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit daily could significantly reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel and ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly,” he wrote.

“I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below N1,000/$1 before year-end is increasingly within reach.”

He also disclosed that Dangote is already pursuing a $12 billion expansion plan aimed at raising refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day. The expansion will include facilities to produce 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of linear alkyl benzene, an essential input in detergent manufacturing.

Otedola noted that work on the expansion has commenced, signalling further growth in domestic industrial capacity.

The refinery’s milestone comes as the Central Bank of Nigeria continues efforts to stabilise the foreign exchange market through policies designed to improve liquidity and close the gap between official and parallel market rates.