Politics
Democracy @ 64: PDP’s collapse raises fears of descent into one party state
Nigeria, Africa’s largest democracy, will on Tuesday, October 1, officially turn 64 years as an independent nation; a journey that has been full of ups and downs. Beyond the story of a faltering economy, the 64th independent anniversary is significant in the sense that the country appear to have begun a new phase in its political journey, a gradual descent – as many have fear – into a one party dictatorship.
The main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), it would seem, is edging closer towards becoming an appendage of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), as permutations for the 2027 electoral contest begin, with Nyesom Wike, minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), poised to take over the party’s structure, Business Hallmark findings indicate.
Wike, a loyalist of President Bola Tinubu, had broken ranks with the PDP, a party under whose platform he governed Rivers State for eight years, to back the president and his APC against Atiku Abubakar, a former vice president, who flew the main opposition party’s flag in the election.
The FCT minister, who was governor at the time, had lost PDP’s presidential ticket to Atiku in 2022. He lobbied to get the vice presidential slot, but in the event, was denied, as Atiku opted for Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa, then Delta State governor. Wike dumped the PDP campaign and supported Tinubu, ensuring that the APC emerged victorious in Rivers ahead of the Labour Party – under questionable circumstances – as Tinubu himself went on to win the presidential election.
What followed has been a battle for the control of the party between Wike, and Abubakar, its most influential figure over the years, with Wike now clearly having the upper hand.
The battle had centered around the party’s National Working Committee (NWC) led by Amb. Umar Iliya Damagum, the acting national chairman, and its national secretary, Senator Samuel Anyanwu, who are loyal to Wike. While Atiku and his camp are pushing for their removal, the Wike camp has insisted on their continued stay, a standoff that has made it impossible for the party to hold its 99th National Executive Committee (NEC). It has been postponed, for the umpteenth time, to October 24.
The NEC meeting, initially scheduled for August 15 to discuss issues, such as the replacement of Damagum, was first postponed to September 26, with members’ travel to Saudi Arabia for pilgrimage given as reason. But there was yet another postponement to October 24, a move seen by some members as a deliberate ploy to undermine the effort to replace Damagum.
With Damagum’s continued stay, Wike has strengthened his hold on the party, taking over its structure, not only in Rivers, his home state, where the incumbent governor, Siminalayi Fubara, his former political godson turned adversary, is now in limbo. But also, it would seem, in Abubakar’s home state of Adamawa.
The Adamawa chapter of the party, on Wednesday, backed Damagum’s leadership, a move that is at odds with Atiku’s position. This, coming after governors of the party, who seemed to be at odds with Wike, had also backed Damagum, is another indication that the former Rivers State governor is gaining the upper hand in the battle for the soul of the party.
Speaking at a press conference on Wednesday in Yola, the state chairman of the party, Abubakar Shehu, said the chapter is solidly behind Damagum for the office of the national chairman.
“The Constitution of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) clearly states the position of the existing vacancy. Section 47(6) states this:”
“Where a vacancy occurs in any of the offices of the party, the Executive Committee at the appropriate level shall appoint another person from the area or zone where the officer originated from to serve out the tenure of the officer.”
Shehu argued that based on the constitutional provisions of the party, the Adamawa State chapter supports the position of Adamawa State Governor Ahmadu Fintiri and other PDP governors for endorsing Damangun to serve out the tenure of ousted Dr. Iyorchia Ayu.
“The former national chairman is from the North- Central. Therefore, Sen. Umar IIiya Damangun, the deputy national chairman of the northern zone, is most qualified to serve out the tenure of the former national chairman,” he added.
Internal Squabble
Beyond strengthening Wike’s position, the decision of the Adamawa chapter to back Damagum indicates that Abubakar’s 2027 presidential ambition is now in jeopardy, with the FCT minister evidently determined to shut the door against him to perfect an easy return of President Tinubu in 2027.
“There is no iota of doubt about the fact that we are gradually moving towards a one party dictatorship in Nigeria,” declared Chief Abia Onyike, a former commissioner for information in Ebonyi State, and a chieftain of the PDP.
“I had thought that the ruling party, the APC would allow other political parties to perform at their own levels. But it would appear that they are not quite sure of what their chances would be in 2027. So, they want to hinge it on their ability to remote control what is happening in the opposition political party, which shows a level of political degeneration that is unheard of in the history of Nigerian politics.”
Since it lost power in 2015, the PDP, which once prided itself as the largest political in Africa, with a vision to stay in power for, at least, 60 years, has naturally seen its fortunes dwindle continually. Abandoned by the likes of Abubakar; Olusegun Obasanjo, a former president of the country, and scores of its prominent figures, particularly, those from the North – a region that was determined to take power – in the lead up to the 2015 election, it was Wike, as Rivers governor, who stood in the gap, ensuring that the party survived, before the likes of Atiku; Bukola Saraki, former senate president, among others, returned to pursue their 2019 presidential ambitions.
But Wike, for his efforts, wanted to be rewarded with the 2023 presidential ticket, at a time it was generally accepted that power should return to the South. However, he lost out to Atiku in the event, with the apparent help of the then national chairman, Senator Iyorchia Ayu, and then, Sokoto State governor, Aminu Tambuwal, among others. Although Wike initially accepted the outcome of the primary, the decision of Atiku to bypass him for Okowa in his choice of running mate was the last straw. He broke away with his loyalists in the party, including the governor of Oyo State, Seyi Makinde; the then governors of Enugu, Abia, and Benue states – Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, Okezie Ikpeazu, and Samuel Ortom – collectively known as the G5 governors.
The G5 governors, with other members, such as Chief Bode George, former national vice-chairman of the southwest zone of the PDP, who insisted on power shift to the South, formed the Integrity Group. The key plank of their demand being that Iyorchia Ayu should step down as chairman, a demand that didn’t materialize until after the 2023 election, when he was eventually forced out.
Ayu was replaced by Damagum, then vice chairman (North), in line with party’s constitution. But going into 2027, Atiku wants him out with possible presidential run in mind, both being from the North East, but Wike wants his continued stay, in what seems to be a plot to shut the former vice president out and pave the way for Tinubu to retain his seat with relative ease, irrespective of the general sentiment of Nigerians, who continue to battle crippling economic hardship under the Tinubu presidency.
Wike’s allies within the party, including Governor Makinde, were all in Port Harcourt at the weekend for a grand civil reception organised in his honour by the Ijaw in Rivers State. He once again used the occasion to attack PDP governors for declaring their support for Governor Fubara in their the protracted political battle.
Wike, during the event lampooned the PDP governors, saying, “These people that are going to television to attack me, where were they when we made an Ijaw governor? Nobody is fighting me. I am too big – far too big for anybody to fight. All these people put together cannot fight me.
“Let nobody threaten anybody; all those threats are empty. Soon we will know who is relevant.”
Edo’s eye opener
The recently held governorship election in Edo State in which the APC and its candidate, Monday Okpebholo, emerged victorious, after a process that independent observer groups, who monitored it said was not credible, perhaps gives an indication of what to expect in 2027.
The PDP has held power in Edo since 2020, but the party despite being favourite to win the 2024 poll, judging by the prevailing sentiments of the majority of the people, lost to APC, representing yet another setback for the main opposition party, whose continued survival as a viable opposition, many say, is under threat.
“What played out in Edo State is very dangerous in outlook,” Onyike said. “A situation, where INEC is unable to live up to each responsibilities; where there is a serious allegation that the results that were declared did not reflect the voting pattern, yet nothing can be done, is dangerous.
“This has nothing to do with Edo as a state per se, it is more significant, when you look at it from the national perspective, which is that upon all the effort we have made, Nigeria is still not a place, where anyone is confident that the people can elect those, who will rule them. To make matters worse, even the judiciary is nothing to write home about.
“From what happened in the 2023 experiment, it is obvious that the judiciary is not capable of stamping its authority and reversing some of these electoral frauds. So, the situation has become more hopeless going forward, and there’s no basis to hope for a credible election in 2027.”
For the PDP, however, the next immediate challenge will be to retain Osun in 2026. Taking lessons from the Edo election, the party in the state appears to be in panic mode.
“The Edo election is most ridiculous and a threat to democracy and other political parties in Nigeria,” said Alhaji Fatai Akinbade, a chieftain of the PDP in Osun. “The Edo election is a lesson to us. “We must be prepared and now start sensitizing the people if we don’t want a repeat of what happened in Edo Sate in Osun.”
President Tinubu’s support
But Tinubu has dismissed the concerns about Edo election as “noise,” maintaining that the APC won fairly.
“Never mind the noise makers. I do a lot of statistical sampling and results. When you hear politicians saying that‘all politics is local,’ you must respect that notion,” he said on Thursday in Abuja at a meeting with the leadership of the APC, where the Edo governor-elect, Okpebholo, and the Deputy Governor-elect, Dennis Idahosa, presented their certificates of return.
“When you see the stability in the Edo North Senatorial District, we see a man that won the Central Senatorial District, and a candidate, who has won a seat in the south senatorial district; we did a match, which turned out to be a winning match.”
A tale of hopelessness at 64
At 64, Nigeria appears to be at the crossroads. Its 25 years of unbroken civilian rule has been touted as an accomplishment; a reason to be grateful. But it’s a civilian rule that continues to see less of democracy with questionable electoral outcomes, observers say, even as deepening corruption and bad governance have birthed worsening insecurity in many parts of the country, while poor economic outcomes have driven millions into hunger and desperation.
“At 64, the Nigerian situation is still hopeless. Even President Tinubu, who talked about constitutional reforms and a return to regionalism has veered off from that direction,” regretted Onyike, who is also the secretary general of Alaigbo Development Foundation (ADF).
“He (Tinubu) may have done one or two things positively, like the local government or economy, but it appears that he is losing grip. The level of violence and banditry in the country, and the fact that the presidency is not doing much to tackle the economic woes does not give any positive impression. Right now people are living in hunger and penury. ”
Onyike said the president should, as matter of urgency, restore fuel subsidy and return the economy to where it was before he took over to avert major social crisis.
“To give him a direct advice, let him restore the oil subsidy and manage the economy the way it was before he took over. Otherwise, we are in for a major crisis. Because, when you deny the people the ability to be in charge of their electoral fortunes and you deny them their economic livelihoods, there is no other thing remaining,” he said .
“From all angles, there is no area you can look at and say there is hope. The people have lost out in the democratic experiment and we are even losing out in our ability to remain alive as human beings. Even in any form of slave system, you don’t come up with any economic policy that would endanger the lives of your slaves, because you will still need them. But in the Nigerian case, it is like nobody cares. It is a terrible scenario.”
Alhaji Fatai Akinbade, a former secretary to the Osun State Government and three-time governorship aspirant, shares similar settlements.
According to him, corruption of highly placed people in power has tainted democracy in Nigeria, noting that 64 years after independent, Nigerians have not learnt any lesson, as the country’s leaders over the years have not shown any sign of seriousness towards the development of the country.
“The rate with which people in power loot the treasury is alarming and something concrete should be done to arrest the situation, if Nigeria is to be seen as a serious nation that wants to move forward,” he said.
He argued, however, that the only way forward is for the nation to be restructured. With this, he said, the zones or the regions would develop according to the dictates and needs of their people.
For Chief Goddy Uwazurike, a senior lawyer and president of Cultural Credibility Development Initiative, an advocacy group, at 64, Nigeria is laboring under self imposed stunted growth.
“The description I can give is that Nigeria’s growth is stunted growth. The country is labouring under self-imposed stunted growth. In all other words, it has had all the opportunities to grow, but willingly, without looking back, the leadership of the country moved us in the wrong direction.”
He argued that, “The major sickness of the country remains poverty of leadership. The second problem remains poverty of thought, and the third is what I would call parochialism as national policy. It has been said that the current president is more interested in those who are loyal to him than those who are efficient. In other words, sycophancy is the order of the day. Our leaders are surrounded by praise singers who call them all sorts of names, that they are lions, tigers, tigers, etc, but if they call them animals they would kill them. In the ancient times the kings always had praise singers, but they did not have any position. In other words, they were just entertainers.
“This country is stunted because those who have been ruling it deliberately put the country in the reverse. In simple language, we are moving backwards and now we are dancing on the precipice.
“We are more interested in stealing and acquiring excessive wealth, but nobody thinks of the country. There is no efficiency. You know, when you go for an interview, the first thing the interviewer will ask you is where do you see yourself in the next 10 years or in the next five years. In Nigeria believe me, each time that question comes up the person will not understand what you are talking about. And when you have a situation, where young people are leaving the country in droves – these are professionals – you realize that we are in big trouble. If your professionals are leaving , then you are left with artisans, and artisans depend on professionals. So, we are growing by leaps and bounds in the wrong direction.”
On his part, Rasaq Olubodun, former, special adviser to late Governor Abiola Ajimobi in Oyo State, said that events in the Nigeria since Independence indicate that the country has been a disappointment.
“The way Nigeria is being run is not what the founding fathers fought and bargained for,” he said. “When you look at things from various parameters, the present day politicians are building mansions, whereas many of the first Republic leaders did not build single house for themselves”.
According to Olubodun, there is no meaningful development to celebrate at 64. He noted that no leader in the entire South West, for example, has surpassed the achievements of late Chief Obafemi Awolwo in the zone.
He also contended that the only way to achieve sustainability of Nigeria is to restructure, declaring that, “I think President Tinubu should be bold enough to restructure Nigeria. Anything short of this would make us regret our independence, and it would also be a disaster to the coming generations.”
Olusesan Laoye contributed to this report