BudgIT raises concerns over viability of Nigeria’s N68.32tn 2026 budget

Civic technology organisation, BudgIT, has described Nigeria’s N68.32 trillion 2026 budget as ambitious but unrealistic, warning that the country’s growing dependence on borrowing to finance government spending poses significant fiscal risks.

In a statement released on Friday, the organisation said the budget, the largest in Nigeria’s history, reflects a widening gap between projected revenues and expenditure, raising concerns about its feasibility and sustainability.

President Bola Tinubu initially presented a budget proposal of N58.47 trillion to the National Assembly. However, the figure was later increased to N68.32 trillion following the approval of an additional N9.09 trillion by the Senate at the President’s request.

According to BudgIT, the Federal Government projects revenue of N36.87 trillion against planned expenditure of N68.32 trillion, resulting in a fiscal deficit of N31.45 trillion, representing 6.41 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The organisation noted that the deficit exceeds the three per cent limit prescribed by the Fiscal Responsibility Act and implies that only about 53.9 per cent of the budget can be financed through actual revenues, with the remaining 46.1 per cent dependent on borrowing.

BudgIT said the situation points to a structural fiscal imbalance that has become entrenched in Nigeria’s public finance framework despite repeated warnings from experts and observers.

The group also expressed concern over the country’s weak revenue performance and the lack of transparency in budget implementation, noting that approved budgets often do not translate into actual performance due to opaque and poorly tracked fund releases.

On expenditure, BudgIT acknowledged the government’s emphasis on infrastructure and development, with capital expenditure accounting for N32.28 trillion or 47.13 per cent of total spending. However, it warned that rising debt obligations could undermine these ambitions.

The organisation stated that debt servicing is projected at N15.8 trillion, consuming about 23 per cent of total expenditure and nearly 45 per cent of projected revenue.

BudgIT further criticised what it described as a mismatch between budgetary allocations and national development priorities.

While security received N6.98 trillion, representing 10.21 per cent of the budget, the organisation noted that health was allocated only 5.2 per cent, significantly below the 15 per cent target set under the Abuja Declaration. Education, it added, received about four per cent of the budget, far below international benchmarks.

According to the organisation, the underfunding of the health and education sectors continues to contribute to poor social outcomes, including a healthcare system heavily dependent on out-of-pocket spending and a growing population of out-of-school children.

Commenting on the budget, BudgIT’s Head of Research and Policy Advisory, Engr. Adejoke Akinbode, said the fiscal plan reflects a government attempting to balance growth ambitions with economic realities but constrained by longstanding structural weaknesses.

She argued that Nigeria’s fiscal challenge extends beyond revenue generation to include revenue realism, expenditure discipline, prudent debt management and stronger institutional credibility.

Akinbode also expressed concern that, with the country approaching another election cycle, the budget could exhibit characteristics of a politically driven spending framework aimed at achieving short-term visibility rather than long-term national development objectives.

BudgIT called on the Federal Government to enforce strict measures against extra-budgetary spending and off-book expenditures, while urging the executive to prioritise projects capable of driving productivity, improving service delivery and supporting sustainable economic growth.