World Bank warns against imminent job losses in Nigeria, others 

World Bank has warned that Nigeria and many other developing nations could face a severe employment crisis over the next decades, driven by rapidly rising youth populations and insufficient job creation

The findings come as many developing countries, such as Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, contend with rising debt burdens, inflationary pressures, and tighter public finances, prompting renewed debates over government spending priorities.

The warning is contained in a new World Bank analysis drawing on data from its Bureaucracy Lab and global public employment indicators, which argues that while trimming public wage bills may deliver short-term fiscal relief, the long-term consequences could undermine state capacity and economic efficiency.

According to the report, fiscal consolidation strategies often begin with attempts to shrink government payrolls because wage bills account for a significant share of public spending.

However, the lender said evidence shows that developing countries are not overstaffed and, in many cases, actually face serious shortages of public workers needed to deliver critical services.

Contrary to popular perceptions that governments in poorer nations employ too many workers, the World Bank found that public employment levels rise alongside national income.

High-income countries average about 87 public employees per 1,000 people, compared with just 23 per 1,000 people in low-income countries. This gap suggests that richer economies rely more heavily on public institutions to deliver education, healthcare, security, and administrative services, while developing countries struggle with limited staffing capacity.

The report noted that as economies grow and citizens demand better services, governments typically need to expand, not shrink, their workforce to meet rising expectations.

“Too few public sector workers can jeopardize economic efficiency as surely as bloated payrolls compromise fiscal balance,” the World Bank stated.

The bank highlighted significant staffing gaps across core government functions in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in education, healthcare, social protection, and public safety.

About half of public sector jobs globally are concentrated in frontline services such as teaching, nursing, policing, and social welfare, while another 20 per cent involve public administration and policy implementation. But many developing countries lack sufficient personnel, especially in rural and underserved communities.

In fragile and conflict-affected countries, for instance, there are roughly half as many police officers per capital compared with more stable nations, despite greater security challenges. The report said better distribution of workers alone cannot solve the problem, as overall staffing levels remain inadequate.

Reducing workforce numbers under fiscal pressure, the bank warned, could further weaken already strained systems and limit governments’ ability to provide electricity, water, healthcare, education, and public safety services.

The World Bank also stressed the broader economic role of government employment, describing the public sector as one of the largest sources of formal jobs in developing economies.

Globally, the public sector accounts for about 38 per cent of formal employment and as much as 59 per cent in fragile and conflict-affected states where private sector opportunities remain limited.

Public employment also plays a critical role in gender inclusion. Women make up about 46 per cent of paid public sector workers, compared with 33 per cent in the private sector, making government jobs a major pathway to stable employment for women.

Rather than cutting jobs, the World Bank urged governments to focus on improving workforce quality through skills development and merit-based recruitment.

The report highlighted serious competency gaps among public servants across developing regions. Many teachers, for example, lack proficiency in the subjects they teach, while assessments of health workers in nine Sub-Saharan African countries showed diagnostic accuracy rates averaging only 67 per cent.

Digital skills shortages were also identified among civil servants, with many lacking basic competencies in commonly used workplace tools such as spreadsheets and presentation software.

These weaknesses, the bank said, often stem from recruitment systems that do not prioritize merit or competitive selection.

The World Bank advised governments facing fiscal constraints to adopt what it described as a “surgical” approach to workforce reforms, periodically assessing whether staffing levels are excessive or insufficient rather than implementing broad cuts.