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Persistent grid collapse exposes rot in electricity sector 

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Persistent grid collapse exposes rot in electricity sector 

The recent embarrassing collapse of the nation’s power grid three times a week has further exposed the deep rot in the struggling sector.

From Monday, October 14, to Saturday, October 19, 2024, the national grid collapsed three times, plunging the nation into total darkness.

The national embarrassment began to unravel on Monday, October 14, when the grid totally shut down. Efforts to restore it by  Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) engineers had reached an advanced stage on Tuesday, October 15th, when it suddenly tripped off for the second time in twenty-four hours.

After several hours of restoration efforts put in by perplexed and tired engineers, the grid was again restored in the night of Tuesday.

Many Nigerians lucky to enjoy relatively stable electricity were busy celebrating having electricity for a straight 86 hours on Saturday, October 19th, when thunder struck the third time in a week.

According to the Systems Operator (SO), the national grid collapsed again on October 19th around 8:16 am, sending the whole nation into yet another darkness.

While the grid had been restored and carried on for over seven days without shutting down, energy experts are warning Nigerians not to put much hope in the system as identified challenges responsible for the frequent trip-offs have not been fixed.

Despite billions of dollars in taxpayers funds and investors’ capital spent, the sector had defied all measures thrown at it by successive administrations to revive it from its doldrum.

Available data show that the grid had collapsed 105 times in the last nine years and five months. Specifically, while the grid recorded 93 shutdowns during the 8-year reign of former President Muhammadu Buhari from May 2015 to May 2023, it has officially collapsed 12 times since incumbent President Bola Tinubu came to power over one year ago.

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The nation’s electricity value chain consists of three major legs, generation, transmission, and distribution.

While the power transmission arm is largely controlled by privately-owned electricity generating companies (gencos), as well as the Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC) which manages a couple of yet to be privatised power plants owned by the three tiers of government (FG, States and LGAs) , the transmission infrastructure is managed by the government owned Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN).

The last leg in the nation’s electricity power chain, distribution, is managed by 11 distribution companies saddled with the task of  delivering the power generated by the gencos and transmitted by the TCN to the end users.

Meanwhile, Business Hallmark findings revealed that at the heart of Nigeria’s energy debacle lies the two weakest links in the power infrastructure chain, the transmission and distribution legs.

According to a report by a leading credit rating agency and provider of industry research and knowledge in Nigeria and  Sub-Sahara Africa, Augusto and Co. Limited, as of December 2022, Nigeria’s peak electricity demand was 19,798 megawatts, while installed generating capacity stands at 13,014 megawatts.

Quoting the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), Augusto and Co. put the wheeling capacity of the national grid at circa 8,100 megawatts, about 5,000 megawatts short of the installed capacity of the gencos.

However, energy experts faulted the NERC data used by Augusto, arguing that the grid no longer has the capacity to wheel above 6,000 megawatts owing to weak and obsolete equipment.

According to Engr. Dipo Iluyomade, a systems engineer and former staff of the defunct National Electricity Power Authority (NEPA), while the 23 gencos operating in the country have collectively ramped up electricity generation to over 16,384 megawatts, the capacity of the national grid has dropped to below 6,000 megawatts.

“While Nigeria currently has an installed electricity generation capacity of about 16,000 megawatts as more power plants come on stream, the highest peak generation of 8,415 megawatts was achieved in September 2023.

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“Gencos cannot continue to ramp up production because the national grid can’t take it. The highest electricity wheeled by the TCN, 5,377 megawatts,  was achieved on August 1, 2023. Since then, the frequency has dropped.

“Due to several constraints, the TCN currently cannot wheel more than 6,000MW of electricity generated by gencos.

“Several attempts to overload the grid in the past without commensurate investment in infrastructure had resulted in system collapse. Most grid collapses are traceable to system overload of more than 5,000 megawatts.

“Meanwhile, TCN is not the only body responsible for our power crisis. Distribution companies also have their own share of the blame.

“At their best, distribution companies can only take  5,000 megawatts, that is if the TCN is able to wheel it. What they are doing now is between 3,700 megawatts to 4,300 megawatts.

“We are all aware of the constant face-off between the TCN and discos over allegations of load rejections. I don’t blame the discos because they can’t take what they cannot handle.

“For the nation to enjoy stable electricity supply, the challenges faced by these two struggling links must be fully addressed”, the former NEPA official noted.

BH’s independent findings, meanwhile, revealed that the national grid, an intricate network designed to transmit electricity from power plants to distribution companies across the country, is in a very sorry state.

According to available information, power transmission started in Nigeria in the first half of the 1960s, when the two national hydropower stations located in Kainji and Jebba were interconnected by the National Control Center (NCC) in Osogbo, Osun State through a 330 kV transmission line.

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In later years, the 330 kV transmission network increased to twenty-eight to accommodate new power plants being built across the country.

They included the Shiroro Power Dam in Niger State, Egbin Thermal Plant in Lagos, as well as two gas-fired plants, Sapele and Afam, located in Delta State.

The transmission infrastructure further increased from twenty-eight to 52 stations and sixty-four transmission lines between 1998 and 2012.

The grid interconnects these power stations through an extensive transmission line, with four control centers (one national control center at Oshogbo and three supplementary control centers at Benin, Shiroro, and Egbin.

Root causes

However, most of the equipment purchased for the plant from Japan as far back as 1963, are still in active service.

Several sources in the TCN, who spoke to our correspondent on the matter, said the existing transmission infrastructure in the country is outdated and needs a total overhaul.

“Most Nigerians don’t really know what the problems are. But let me tell you how we got to this sorry state.

“The highly complex transmission system gets 330 kilovolts of electricity from power plants, both hydro and gas-fired. Because the power is useless at that high frequency, TCN must first step it down to 132, 33, and 11 kilovolts before it can put it on its power lines.

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“Unfortunately, most of the lines are outdated and obsolete resulting in the loss of more than 40% during transmission. In fact, some are more than 50 years old.

“For instance, the first transmission stations and lines, which were constructed in the mid-1960s are now almost 60 years old.

“Subsequent ones built in the early 80s to evacuate power from Egbin, Afam, and Sapele plants are also more than 40 years old.

“While most of the equipment is no longer working, replacements have not been gotten for them.

“Nigerians now rely largely on the old and unstable substations and power lines. Though old and tired, they are still in service because of the ingenuity of engineers at the TCN, who constantly cannibalize parts from unserviceable machinery to repair those still standing.

“Though recent administrations have made efforts at fixing the power infrastructure crisis, the deficit is quite massive.

“It will take the nation, at least, 10 to 15 years of constant investment to restore the sector back to its old glory”, the engineer further added.

A very weak distribution network is also a contributing factor to the present state of the  nation’s power sector.

According to stakeholders in the transmission chain, technical losses, especially weak feeder transformers and sub-stations, as well as non-technical losses, namely low investments and electricity theft have combined to frustrate the government’s efforts to provide a stable power supply.

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Added to this challenge is gas supply shortages, which denies Gencos the much-needed fuel to fire their plants.

Due to a shortage of gas, many power plants have remained idle for months, contributing nothing to the national grid.

Also, the government has largely failed to do its part of putting the sector on sound footing through funding and oversight.

For instance, regulatory inconsistencies and insufficient funding by the government have hobbled efforts to modernise the grid.

While the private sector is reluctant to invest in the wobbling sector owing to the government’s continued capping of tariff, the government has not been able to raise the required funds needed to transform the sector.

Government handicap

Speaking recently on the poor state of electricity transmission and distribution in the country, the minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said power grid collapse is inevitable owing to the obsolete equipment still used for power transmission by the TCN.

“We keep talking about grid collapse. Grid collapse, grid collapse, whether it’s a total collapse, partial collapse, or slight trip-off.

“This is almost inevitable as it is today, given the state of our power infrastructure, the infrastructure is in deplorable conditions, so why won’t you have trip-offs? Why won’t you have collapses, either total or partial?

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“It will continue to remain like this until we can overhaul the entire infrastructure. What we do now is to make sure that we manage it”, the minister stated.

Adelabu added that there is a need to have power grids in different regions or states to put an end to incessant grid collapses.

According to the minister, having multiple power grids in each region and state would ensure stability.

Responses

“The new Electricity Act has decentralized power. It has enabled all the subnational governments, the state government, and the local government, to be able to participate in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity.

“We all rely on a single national grid today; if there is a disturbance of the national grid, it affects all 36 states. It shouldn’t be like that.

“This (new act) will enable us to start moving gradually towards having regional groups and possibly having state grids.

“And each of these grids will be removed and shielded from each other. So, if there’s a problem with a particular grid, only the state where it belongs will be affected, not the entire nation. So, this is one of the impacts this Electricity Act will have”, he stated.

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