Panic in APC over Opposition Parties adoption of united ticket 

...as Tinubu’s team worry over Obi 

The opposition parties’ in the country on Saturday April 25,  held a summit in Ibadan, Oyo State, during which various opposition stakeholders agreed to field a single presidential candidate, represents a bright spot, giving Nigerians hope of a change of government, but there are more than enough reasons to be skeptical.

The summit attended by all the presidential hopefuls and other heavyweights, was hosted by Oyo State governor, Engr. Seyi Makinde. They had again complained of obstacles and attempts by the federal government to scuttle the meeting by blocking access to the venue

A Communiqué issued at the end of Opposition Political Parties National Summit stated, “that

participating Opposition Parties in Nigeria, after an extensive deliberation on the collective threats that we face and the existential challenges facing our country under the stranglehold of the oppressive and anti-democratic All Progressives Congress (APC) and given the need for urgent, collective action to rescue our nation and the destiny of over 200 million compatriots, hereby resolve as follows: That they have resolved to present a common and single presidential ticket to confront the incumbent to be able to mount a formidable challenge to remove the government that has brought hardship and threat to collective security from office.

Full Communique 

That we shall resist all machinations by the APC to foist a one-party State on Nigeria and fight for the survival of multi-party democracy in our country; that despite the onslaughts and manoeuvrings of the ruling party, the APC to impose President Bola Tinubu as the sole Presidential candidate in 2027; we shall field candidates and contest the 2027 Presidential and other elections;

that we shall work towards fielding one Presidential Candidate for the 2027 elections, which shall be agreed and supported by all participating opposition parties to rescue our nation and her long suffering masses; that the INEC Chairman, Prof. Joash Ojo Amupitan, having shown bias and partisanship in favour of the ruling APC, should not conduct the 2027 general elections as Nigerians across board have lost confidence in him and his capacity to guarantee the required neutrality to deliver free, fair, transparent and credible elections. His continuous stay in office is vexatious and capable of triggering wide spread crisis in our nation; that the National Assembly should immediately review the Electoral Act, 2026 to remove all sections that threaten the sanctity and integrity of the elections and run counter to constitutional provisions; that all leading politicians that are being detained or harassed on bailable offences be released with immediate effect and allowed to exercise their fundamental rights of participation and inclusivity as Nigerians; that we consider the recent guidelines released by the INEC as obstacles, deliberately engineered to impose conditions and deadlines on the opposition parties. We therefore demand that INEC extends the deadline for primaries till the end of July, 2026.

The opposition parties included ADC, a faction of PDP and Labor Party, and other individuals.

The ADC remains the umbrella of the opposition but it has been dogged by controversy and now it’s hope hangs in the hand of the Supreme Court.

The party recently managed to hold its national convention despite what it described as attempts by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to frustrate the process, an event Tinubu would later dismiss as a “street convention.”

Yet, even as it survived external pressure, the ADC now faces a more dangerous threat from within.

On Saturday, the party raised fresh alarm, alleging a plot by the APC to disrupt its summit in Ibadan, Oyo State. But insiders say the real battle is internal, one that could ultimately determine whether the ADC becomes a viable alternative or collapses under the weight of its own contradictions.

At the heart of the crisis is a fierce contest involving three political heavyweights: Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi. While the race is widely described as a three-horse contest, many within the party believe it has effectively narrowed to two dominant tendencies

Atiku versus Obi – with Amaechi playing a strategic but potentially decisive role.

The numbers from the 2023 presidential election continue to shape arguments within the party. Atiku, who ran under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP),m secured nearly seven million votes, while Obi, contesting on the Labour Party platform, garnered over six million votes despite operating without an entrenched political structure.

Supporters of Atiku argue that his experience and northern political base make him the most viable candidate capable of mobilising votes at scale. However, critics counter that his 2023 performance relied heavily on PDP governors and structures, raising questions about whether he can replicate that success within a new coalition.

Obi’s camp, on the other hand, insists that his appeal cuts across regions, particularly among young voters disillusioned with the status quo. They argue that with a stronger platform like the ADC, Obi could convert his grassroots momentum into a decisive electoral victory.

The shadow of rotation

Overlaying the contest is Nigeria’s unwritten power rotation principle between North and South, a factor that has reignited calls for a southern candidate in 2027. Many within the ADC believe that, in line with this arrangement, Atiku should step aside. But his supporters are pushing back strongly.

Abdul-Aziz Na’ibi Abubakar, a vocal supporter of Atiku, warned of severe backlash if the former vice president withdraws. “If Atiku decides to step down for another candidate ahead of 2027, a nationwide protest will inevitably follow. Nigerians will not settle for missing another chance to experience good governance and true democracy,” he said.

His position reflects a broader sentiment among Atiku loyalists, who see 2027 as his final opportunity, following his declaration that it would be his last presidential run.

Yet, that stance has drawn sharp criticism from other stakeholders within the ADC. Babatunde Gbadamosi, a party chieftain and former governorship candidate in Lagos, dismissed the idea outright.

“You’re living in a universe you created in your own head. A nationwide celebration will spontaneously erupt if Atiku should step down for Obi. At his age, this is the only thing a selfless patriot should be contemplating,” he said.

The exchange underscores the deepening divide within the party, one that is increasingly being fought not just behind closed doors, but in the public arena.

A fragile coalition of ambitions

Beyond Atiku and Obi lies the strategic positioning of Amaechi, ex- Rivers governor,  a former minister and influential figure within the ADC. Amaechi has made it clear that he is not in the race to play second fiddle.

“I don’t care who else is running. I’m running because I’m a Nigerian candidate. Because I know the Nigerian problem. And I can solve the Nigerian problem,” he declared in a recent interview. He is likely to pair former Sokoto governor, Senator Aminu Tambuwal.

His confidence is rooted in his record in governance over 25 years as Speaker, governor, and minister, and infrastructure, particularly in rail development and port reforms. He has also been outspoken in criticising the current administration, describing the economic situation as dire.

“Everybody is suffering, everybody is looking for food to eat. People can’t buy fuel, can’t travel… everything is skyrocketing,” Amaechi said.

Despite his credentials, however, many observers believe his strongest leverage lies in coalition-building. Within party circles, there is growing speculation that he could emerge as a running mate, particularly in an Atiku-led ticket. That possibility reflects the broader reality within the ADC.

Obi/Kwankwaso momentum

Complicating matters further is the emergence of the Obi/Kwankwaso (OK) Movement, a growing coalition within the ADC pushing for a joint ticket between Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso. The movement, which has begun establishing structures across the country, is positioning itself as a grassroots-driven response to economic hardship and insecurity.

Its proponents argue that combining Obi’s nationwide appeal with Kwankwaso’s northern base could create a formidable electoral force. In Kano, Kwankwaso’s stronghold, chants of “Obi-Kwankwaso” have dominated ADC gatherings, an indication of the ticket’s growing traction.

The proposed alliance is also believed to have the backing of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who supported Obi in the 2023 election.

However, the movement has also raised concerns about internal sabotage.

Hamma Hayatu, an ADC member and Atiku supporter, alleged that the alliance was designed to sideline Atiku.

“Long before now we had information that Obasanjo will bring Kwankwaso to ADC with a plan to join him and Peter Obi on same ticket… this ticket is calculated at stopping Atiku’s aspiration,” he said.

Such claims highlight the deep suspicion and competing narratives shaping the party’s internal dynamics.

The numbers game

For many within the ADC, the debate ultimately comes down to numbers. Jack Obinyan, another party member, argued that excluding Atiku from the equation could be politically fatal.

“Challenging the seat of power from Tinubu without Atiku is like playing against Bayern Munich or PSG with eight men – you will lose,” he said.

He added that Atiku’s electoral base remains critical to any opposition victory. “If you have Atiku’s seven million votes, it is game over by 11:45am on election day. No amount of rigging will save Tinubu,” he argued.

Yet, others insist that numbers alone do not tell the full story. A growing segment within the party believes that Obi’s appeal – particularly among young voters and across southern Nigeria – represents a new political dynamic that cannot be ignored.

This divergence has turned the ADC into a battleground of competing strategies, one rooted in traditional political structures, the other in emerging grassroots mobilisation.

A party racing against time

Amid the internal wrangling, the clock is ticking. According to the timetable released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), all party primaries must be conducted between April 23 and May 30, 2026.

Yet, the ADC has yet to fix a date for its presidential primary, an indication of how deeply divided the party remains. Insiders warn that the delay could prove costly.

“There is no time. They are still fighting among themselves when they should be consolidating,” a senior source said.

The uncertainty has also triggered quiet discussions about alternative plans, with some aspirants reportedly considering other platforms if the crisis persists.

Rising tensions, deepening cracks

The internal divisions have spilled into open confrontation, particularly between supporters of Atiku and Obi. Social media has become a battleground, with exchanges growing increasingly heated.

One commentator, reacting to the unfolding drama, warned that the biggest threat to an Obi-Kwankwaso ticket is not Tinubu, but Atiku himself. “It was Atiku that destabilised PDP in the last general election… he could be working for Tinubu and we don’t even know it,” the commentator claimed.

Such rhetoric, though controversial, reflects the level of distrust now permeating the coalition.

Even within the party leadership, concerns are mounting. Austin Okai, an ADC chieftain, has called for an end to the escalating media war between the camps.

“The ongoing media hostilities… are a direct threat to the ADC coalition,” he warned, urging both sides to focus on the broader objective of unseating the ruling party. Yet, despite such appeals, the war of words shows little sign of abating.

Tinubu’s camp watches closely

While the ADC grapples with its internal crisis, attention is increasingly turning to the reaction within the ruling APC.

Sources suggest that Tinubu’s camp is, particularly concerned about the possibility of Obi emerging as the ADC candidate.

In 2023, Obi defeated Tinubu in Lagos and secured significant support across the South, a performance that has not gone unnoticed. With uncertainty over northern voting patterns and growing economic discontent, insiders say Obi’s potential candidacy represents a unique challenge.

This concern may explain why key figures within the administration, including presidential aide, Bayo Onanuga, have focused attention on Obi. In a recent post, Onanuga described Obi as “peripatetic” and “opportunistic,” suggesting he may yet leave the ADC as he did previous parties.

Beyond the public rhetoric and positioning, the real contest within the ADC is unfolding along deeper structural and psychological fault lines – where ego, legacy, regional calculations and survival instincts intersect in ways that could ultimately determine the party’s fate.

At the centre of this evolving drama is a widening disconnect between popularity in the public arena and acceptance within party structures. Several aspirants command significant grassroots support, yet insiders insist that such momentum does not automatically translate into influence among delegates and decision-makers.

“Popularity outside is not the same as acceptance inside,” one party source noted, pointing to what he described as a dangerous illusion that could distort strategic calculations ahead of the primaries.

This tension is particularly evident in the case of Obi, whose strong appeal among young voters and urban populations has not entirely resolved concerns among some party power brokers about control, alignment and long-term loyalty.

That unease is being amplified by persistent speculation that Obi could again switch platforms if the process does not favour him, an argument his critics have continued to weaponise in the political narrative.

But Obi’s supporters reject that framing, arguing instead that his political movements have been driven by principle rather than opportunism. In their view, the real issue is whether the ADC is prepared to accommodate a new kind of politics or remain bound to traditional power structures.

Former minister Rotimi Amaechi did not mince words in his assessment. “For Christ’s sake, President Tinubu does not have the right to speak… Nigerians are waiting to vote him out,” he said, reflecting a sentiment that has gained traction within opposition circles.

Political analyst, Kenny Okulugbo, pointed to historical precedent, arguing that successful coalitions are built on sacrifice and compromise.

“You have to give it to President Tinubu: he sacrificed his vice-presidential ambition because he realised that without that, they could not defeat an incumbent,” he said.

The implication for the ADC is that without similar concessions, its chances of success may be severely limited.

Regional arithmetic and the road to 2027

Another critical factor shaping the contest is Nigeria’s enduring regional arithmetic. The North-South balance remains a powerful, even if unofficial, determinant of political outcomes. For some within the ADC, this reinforces the argument for a southern candidate, particularly in light of Tinubu’s incumbency.

Okulugbo argued that any viable challenge must take this dynamic into account. “If you are going to challenge him, you must present a candidate, who can cut across regions. Right now, Obi appears to have that capacity,” he said.

However, this view is far from being universally accepted. Atiku’s supporters continue to emphasize his deep-rooted networks in the North, while others insist that electoral success in 2027 will depend less on regional calculations and more on voter sentiment.

Uncertainty and emergence of “Plan B”

As the internal contest intensifies, a quiet, but significant development is unfolding behind the scenes, growing consideration of alternative political pathways.

Multiple sources indicate that some aspirants and their allies are already exploring “Plan B” options, including potential exits from the ADC should the process fail to produce a satisfactory outcome.

“Some of the leading aspirants are already thinking of Plan B. That tells you everything about the level of uncertainty,” a party insider disclosed.

This possibility introduces a new layer of complexity, raising questions about the durability of the coalition and its ability to withstand internal shocks.