Battle for next Lagos governor narrows to two; who wears the cap?

As the battle for the governorship race in Lagos gathers momentum and heats up, potential candidates for the tickets of the political parties are continuing their consultations to secure nominations.

Nigerians have always been very concerned about who governs Lagos, given its position as the commercial nerve centre of Nigeria, where virtually all nationalities reside, and particularly now as the home state of President Bola Tinubu.

Apart from oil in the South-South, Lagos remains the richest state and the place where the largest chunk of Nigeria’s revenue is generated, as well as the hub of commerce and industry.

Lagos is also where over N200 billion is generated monthly as internally generated revenue.

The governorship election is, however, crucial to all tribes living in Lagos, and since there is still no other party strong enough to wrest power from the All Progressives Congress (APC), attention is always focused on who will govern the state. Often, the choice is not necessarily based on political suitability or popularity, but on the endorsement of one man since 2007 — Bola Tinubu.

The Long Roll

At present, the gladiators have lined up, and there are indications that the number has been reduced, as three prominent figures earlier jostling for the party’s ticket have been edged out.

The three presidential appointees — Femi Gbajabiamila, Chief of Staff to the President; Muri Okunola, Principal Private Secretary to the President; and Tunji Alausa, the current Minister of Education — were all in the race but have since lost out.

They all remain in the government of President Tinubu and did not resign before the deadline given by the President, which required all political appointees interested in elective office to step down by the end of March 2026 to pursue their ambitions ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Those still in the race include former governor Akinwunmi Ambode; the current Deputy Governor, Dr. Kadiri Obafemi Hamzat; Senator Tokunbo Abiru, representing Lagos East; the State Commissioner for Environment, Tokunbo Wahab; Chief of Staff to Governor Sanwo-Olu, Tayo Ayinde; the current Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Hon. Mudashiru Obasa; and the former governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2023 election, Abdul-Azeez Adediran, popularly known as Jandor.

Sources said that, based on recent developments within the party, and if ongoing permutations and alignments hold, the race may have narrowed to two leading contenders — Ambode and Hamzat.

It was also learnt that Senator Abiru may be persuaded to retain his Senate seat; Tayo Ayinde may settle for the House of Representatives; Jandor may be considered for a ministerial or board appointment either at the state or federal level if President Tinubu secures a second term; while Obasa may be asked to step down from the governorship race and retain his position as Speaker, which makes him the longest-serving Speaker in Lagos and Nigeria.

Ambition Meets Reality

Although these remain speculations, tradition in Lagos politics suggests that the governorship candidate of the ruling party often emerges unexpectedly, sometimes at the last minute.

The choice of leaders and stakeholders is usually closely guarded, and in many cases, a dark horse emerges.

There are clear examples, such as former governor Babatunde Raji Fashola, who, before his emergence, was Chief of Staff to Tinubu when he was governor of Lagos State.

Fashola was not among the frontrunners at the time. Those widely mentioned included Jimi Agbaje, Muiz Banire, and Femi Pedro, Tinubu’s one-term deputy, among others.

Before the primary, Tinubu reportedly travelled abroad and asked the contenders to agree on a consensus candidate before his return, but they failed to do so. That paved the way for Fashola’s emergence.

A similar scenario played out with Ambode, and later with the current governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, who emerged after Ambode was dropped.

Meanwhile, consultations and meetings are ongoing to determine who eventually gets the ticket.

In selecting a candidate within the APC, the Governance Advisory Council (GAC), headed by Pa Tajudeen Olusi, plays a key role. It is believed that whoever the council endorses will likely receive Tinubu’s approval.

The Political Calculations

There are claims within the party that the contest has been narrowed to Ambode and Hamzat following a recent meeting between the council, stakeholders, and Tinubu in Lagos.

However, some party members and aspirants insist that no such agreement was reached.

It was gathered that the council is divided between Ambode and Hamzat. While some members favour Ambode, a majority are said to support Hamzat.

Supporters of Ambode argue that, having served only one term and being a Christian, his candidacy could help balance the political equation, considering Tinubu and Fashola governed for 16 years, while Ambode and Sanwo-Olu together would account for 12 years.

Another group within the party, however, is advocating for a fresh candidate who has not previously held executive power, preferably a core Lagos indigene, citing concerns over non-indigenes governing the state since Tinubu’s tenure.

They argue that Ambode has already served as governor, while Hamzat is completing eight years as deputy governor.

Opposition to both candidates appears to be growing, particularly against Hamzat, with some stakeholders, including traditional rulers and sections of the APC leadership, reportedly opposing his candidacy.

An indigene recently argued that Hamzat should not be considered based on his origin, claiming he hails from Afowoowa-Sogade in Ogun State, where his late father was a traditional ruler.

Despite the criticism, Hamzat remains a strong contender and continues consultations with party leaders and groups.

He was born in Lagos, and his late father, Oba Mufutau Olatunji Hamzat, served in the Lagos State House of Assembly and later as Commissioner for Transportation between 1979 and 1983.

Dr. Hamzat holds a PhD in Engineering and has served in various capacities, including Commissioner for Science and Technology under Tinubu and Fashola, Special Adviser to Fashola as Minister of Works, and Deputy Governor since 2019.

A member of the House of Representatives representing Ikeja Federal Constituency, James Faleke, has publicly endorsed him, urging party members to support his ambition.

However, the endorsement has drawn criticism, as Faleke reportedly served on the APC screening committee.

Dark Horse

Ambode, who is also favoured by some groups, may not enjoy full support from the GAC due to disagreements during his tenure, particularly over policies that affected party patronage networks.

Nevertheless, religion has become a significant factor in politics, especially following Tinubu’s same-faith ticket, which some argue has strengthened his appeal among certain groups.

Despite internal party concerns, Ambode’s infrastructural achievements during his tenure are widely acknowledged across the five divisions of Lagos State.

He is also seen as having electoral value, with growing public support from those who commend his performance in office.