Features
APC: Walking through landmines
By OBINNA EZUGWU
After years of continued postponement of its national convention by the Mai Mala Buni-led Caretaker/Extra-ordinary Convention Planning Committee (CECPC), Nigeria’s ruling party, the All Progressive Congress (APC) on Monday released yet another schedule of activities for zonal congresses beginning from February 26, ending with the national convention on March 26.
The Buni led CECPC which had been running the party almost single-handedly since it was inaugurated in June 2020 following the removal of the Adams Oshiomhole-led National Working Committee (NWC) with a mandate to organise a national convention in December 2020, had yet decided to override the initial February 26 date for the convention without much of an input by the party’s other stakeholders.
The committee, which was the making of inner Aso Rock power brokers, notably the Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami who has the ears of president Buhari, had gradually morphed into a powerful cabal, dictating decisions for the party while other stakeholders grudgingly trudge along. But things appear to be approaching a climax.
CECPC’s formation was a culmination of years of battle for the control of the party between the Bola Ahmed Tinubu led Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) faction of the party and Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). The battle had consumed the party’s first national chairman, Chief John Oyegun whose removal in 2018, and the subsequent emergence of Oshiomhole, a core Tinubu loyalist, as national chairman, was seen as a win for the former Lagos State governor, and an indication that he could go on to control the party structure heading into 2019 general election and beyond.
But it had been a strategic concession by the Buhari clique to enlist Tinubu’s full support for the president’s second term bid. The former governor had become disillusioned by what seemed to be an attempt to undermine him in the party; what his wife, Senator Remi, had described as the trashing of her husband by the Buhari government. It worked. Tinubu, convinced that he was back in business with Oshiomhole as national chairman, became fully committed to the president’s reelection bid. But soon after the election was won, the Aso Rock clique moved to take back the party.
Oshiomhole’s rift with his successor in Edo, Mr. Godwin Obaseki which culminated in his suspension by a High Court in Abuja, provided an opportunity for Buhari to step in. Oshiomhole’s National Working Committee (NWC) was kicked out and the president, acting on the advice of Malami, constituted the CECPC to be led by Buni, governor of Yobe State and core loyalist of the president in spite of Tinubu’s initial protestations.
Although the Buni committee, whose very existence raises germane constitutional questions, had the sole mandate of organising the party’s national convention in December 2020, a mandate it is yet to accomplish, it has since become a powerful body whose decisions are hardly questioned, even as the Yobe governor has since relocated to Abuja to play national politics that comes with being party chairman.
Explosion Looming
Obvious from the decisions of the Buni committee is that there is well hatched plot to ensure that Abuja’s candidates emerge in the party’s convention and ultimately as its presidential flag bearer in 2023; a plot that is destined to fray nerves in Lagos with Tinubu determined to realize what he says has been his lifelong ambition and the vice president also gunning for the presidential ticket.
On Tuesday, following the announcement by the committee that the party convention had been shifted for the umpteenth time, governors of the party met with President Buhari and decided to zone key positions, notably presidential candidate to the South, with the president deciding that the national chairman would be chosen by consensus, often a euphemism for imposing the president’s chosen candidate on the party.
“We have agreed a zoning formula for all the six geo-political zones. Essentially, northern zone will have the positions the South have had in the last eight years, and vice versa. It is a very simple, equitable and fair formula,” Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, Kaduna State governor who briefed journalists on the outcome of the meeting said.
“We will now go back and consult at the zonal levels and look at the positions that are available and the process of the convention preparation will be started in earnest. So, by the grace of God, on the 26th of March, we would have done our national convention.”
The Kaduna governor affirmed that the governors are on the same page with President Buhari on the decision of the Buni committee to shift the party convention to March 26, even as he conceded that there were some divergent opinions with respect to the timing of the convention.
“We were divided over the timing of the convention, okay. There were some governors that felt that we should put off the convention until we resolve issues about congresses in some states,” he said.
“As you know, in some states, these matters are even in court. So, some governors held the view that we should wait until all these are resolved, and this is not borne out of any agenda or selfishness. It is just a realistic proposition to avoid us violating any laws or putting our party structures or elected candidates in danger.
“So, yes, there were differences in opinion about timing. Some of us are saying the Constitution allows us to have convention even if three or four states have issues that are unresolved, while others are saying no, let us finish all the reconciliations and we do this convention. After all, there is no time limit for the convention as long as we do it before the time for the primaries.
“So, that was the difference. This is what the media has called divided governors. In a democratic setting, there is no way you can have 22 governors plus the deputy governor of Anambra State agreeing on any issue. We can have differences.
“But after our meeting of last night, to deliberate on the proposal by the national caretaker committee, and our briefing with Mr. President today, we are all on the same page. We are committed to ensuring that the Peoples Destruction Party doesn’t come back to power.”
Chairman of the Progressives Governors Forum and Governor of Kebbi State, Atiku Bagudu, who also spoke to journalists after the meeting, relayed Buhari’s reason for favouring consensus candidate for party offices.
He said: “On consensus, Mr. President reminded us that we have produced a number of national chairmen by consensus; Baba Akande emerged as the pioneer chairman of the party by consensus; John Odigie-Oyegun emerged by consensus; Comrade Adams Oshiomhole emerged by consensus.
“So, he is a believer in consensus as one of the options of producing leadership, and he urged us to explore consensus option, so that we can generate the best.
“While recognizing that many people who have indicated interest are equally competent but knowing that just one person will occupy the office, and consensus is part of our Constitution he urged us to work towards consensus.
“And the governors, I have said earlier, have also been working to ensure that as part of equitable arrangement, zoning and consensus are incorporated. We have done that at the lower levels, and even at the national level it’s almost certain that we will achieve it.”
Bagudu also noted that the party’s governors are united behind Buhari on the issue of consensus.
“The 22 governors of the APC are united. We are in total support of Mr. President, we are appreciative of his leadership, we commend him for his leadership, we are appreciative of the sacrifice of the national caretaker and extraordinary convention planning committee. And we thanked them for the successes recorded under them. Our party, like I said, is greater and stronger, with more members by the day.”
Obvious from the foregoing is that Buhari, who feelers suggest favours a South South candidate, one of three individuals, including the Central Bank governor, Godwin Emefiele; Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi or former president, Goodluck Jonathan, to be his successor, is tightening his grip on the party to ensure that his wishes prevail, which is certain to undermine the interest of Tinubu who has since pronounced his readiness to fight dirty if it comes to that, and the APC could be heading towards the long predicted collapse.
“Certainly the APC will implode. The foundation of the party its self is weak. We have several people, tendencies coming together to acquire power but they are unable to synergise. Conflict is tearing the party apart,” said Dr. Muiz Banire, the party’s former National Legal Adviser in an interview last week.
The former Commissioner for Justice in Lagos, noted further that the APC is known for violation of rule of law, and any organisation with disdain for rule of law, cannot stand the test of time.
Tinubu, Buhari on Collision Course
Having worked tirelessly to ensure that the APC came to power in 2015 with Buhari as president, Tinubu who had wanted to be on the ticket as vice president but was rejected on the basis his being Muslim, had devoted his time and resources to plan for presidential bid in 2023, a quest he admitted recently, has been his long term ambition.
Tinubu had looked obviously forward to Buhari backing his presidential bid in 2023 as payback for his for his effort in ensuring Buhari’s victories in 2015 and 2019 presidential elections. But this is unlikely to be the case.
Buhari who close sources say has never been a fan of the former Lagos governor, from all indications, has no plans to back his quest for power, which could set both men up for an open confrontation and catalyse the collapse of the ruling party.
The president, according to several sources, is more favourably disposed to a yet-to-be named individual from the South South, with feelers suggesting that the individual could be Godwin Emefiele, governor of the Central Bank.
“Emefiele is favoured by the president for a number of reasons,” an APC source who craved anonymity said. “He is cool headed and is unlikely to distort the status quo set up by Buhari. He is also an Igbo person from Delta and will address the agitation for a president of Igbo extraction.”
But former President Jonathan and Amaechi have also been mentioned. Amaechi is a trusted ally of the president who played a key role in Buhari’s campaign in 2015, providing the bulk of the funding used for the campaign. Jonathan, on the other hand, is also said to be under serious consideration on account of his ineligibility for another term.
“Unless something really dramatic happens between now and the next APC convention, Tinubu seems headed for an inexorably catastrophic political fall in the party he helped to form, fund, and get to power. It is now obvious to even a casual observer that the people who control the levers of APC want neither Bola Tinubu nor Yemi Osinbajo to be their party’s nominee for president in 2023,” wrote Farooq Kperogi, Nigerian-American professor, author and columnist in an article last week.
“There seems to be a coalescence of opinions in the upper reaches of APC’s hierarchy in the North that the party’s nominee should come from the South-South because they imagine that only a weak, politically rootless candidate from the region will guarantee their influence and continued access to the public till.”
