Tinubu, Atiku, Obi: Three presidential hopefuls, their chances, strengths, weaknesses

Adebayo Obajemu

The #Endsars Protest of 2020 , has occupied a seminal place in Nigeria history. It was a movement, a youth movement that started out as a protest against police brutality before it morphed into a movement against injustice and poor governance.

Echoes of the protest still reverberate across the land with positive outcomes in Nigerian life. Unlike the violent storming of Bastille which signalled the French Revolution of 1789, the Nigerian youth protest at Lekki, Lagos has unleashed a revolution of sort, a mental revolt against old order, which has produced an avatar, a rallying point and political symbol in Peter Obi, former Anambra State governor.

The #Endsars generation who by demographic are in majority have decided to change the political balance using Peter Obi. How far can they go? What are their chances,and what hurdles await them?

The above questions and many others will decide who will succeed President Muhammadu Buhari come 2023 among presidential hopefuls in a race featuring the main contenders: former vice president,Atiku Abubakar; former Lagos State governor and APC National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and former Anambra State governor, Peter Obi.

For now, we should leave the pretenders out in the analysis.

Now that political parties have come up with their flag bearers for the 2023 presidential election, we take a critical look at how the epic battle among the three serious contenders, former vice president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, vying on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and a leader of the governing All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and finally Peter Obi, candidate of the Labour Party will be won come 2023.

With the emergence of Ibrahim Shettima , former governor of Borno State as Tinubu’s running mate, the Atiku’s camp has enough reason to squeam in fear. One, Atiku’s stronghold is in the Northeast, the same zone of Shettima.

The implication is that the zone’s votes which could have been the advantage for Atiku will now be shared with Tinubu.

The epic battle has many contexts under which to situate the analysis. One, the two visible contenders are Tinubu of the APC and Atiku of PDP, the serious challenge to the ascendancy of the twosome is Peter Obi of the Labour Party. He comes with his own preponderant strength and downside.

Aside the challenge posed by Obi, the former governor, Kano State, Engr Rabiu Kwankwaso flying the ticket of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) , would also cut deep into the chances of Tinubu and Atiku for so many reasons.

On the whole, it is a view widely held by many that the 2023 presidential contest would not just be the fiercest, it would be the most unpredictable and intriguing election in the democratic history of Nigeria.

Secretly, former president Olusegun Obasanjo is said to be backing power shift to the southeast and is one of the powerful hands marketing Obi to Western Powers, ensured his appearance in UK to parley with officialdom in Downing street.

It was Obasanjo that is also marketing Obi to northern establishment, picked a northern vice presidential candidate for him.

However, many analysts believe the Obi phenomenon is for 2027 by then he will have built enough good will and structure to challenge political orthodoxy and entrenched conservative political establishment.

Kwankwaso, ultimate game-changer in Northwest

Coming from the background of being a two-term governor of the populous Kano State, former minister of defence and a senator, Kwankwaso, no doubt, will benefit immensely from his massive, cult-like followership in Kano, parts of Jigawa and Katsina.

He will have significant success polling most of the Kano votes, especially as Senator Ibrahim Shekarau, himself a former governor of Kano, has pitched tent with him.

This factor is not only plausible but real given the flurry of defections of key politicians, mainly from the ruling APC, to Kwankwaso’s NNPP, this will cut deep into the chances of both Atiku and Tinubu in the northwestern states, which are famed to churn out the highest votes in national elections.

But the battle here, especially in Kano and Jigawa will be fierce.The Ganduje factor as a sitting governor and Tinubu’s loyalist will ensure that Tinubu get a larger percentage of the votes. Kwankwanso can not get much from other regions where he is viewed as a lightweight with no clear structure.

Peter Obi: the ultimate dark horse

Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate who left the PDP few days to the party’s presidential primary in which Atiku emerged the candidate, is currently a social media sensation.

He is the most talked about presidential contender in the current dispensation. His appeal has demographic advantage being largely driven by the youth that cut across geopolitical zones.

The Obi fever is fast spreading like wildfires. Sources say his support base has a broad swath that includes some Diaspora Nigerian intellectuals abroad.

The youth in their thousands are raving about his candidature on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and other platforms, but there are concerns that that may not translate into votes during the 2023 elections as most of them do not have voter’s cards.

But that fears are fast dissipating as thousands of youths have gone for the acquisition of their PVC.

He is expected to have significant advantage in Southeast, notwithstanding that Dave Umahi, governor of Ebonyi State has vowed that his state will pitch tents with Tinubu.

Though Obi is a former two term governor of Anambra State and was the vice presidential candidate for Atiku in 2019, it is believed that his lack of political influence beyond his home state would be his greatest undoing in the election. Besides, his party platform, the LP, being devoid of national presence, will be an anathema to many voters willing to help his ambition to become the first Igbo man to ascend the presidency of the country.

But for his eloquence and ability to communicate explicitly, his plans on how to tackle insecurity, the economy and youth unemployment, as well as his relatively ‘young age’, largely regarded as representing the new order, compared to Atiku and Tinubu, who are perceived as belonging to the old political stock, Obi is bound to get swing votes from citizens who are shorn of religious, regional and ethnic sentiments that becloud Nigerian politics and define voting patterns.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu: the Jagaban of Nigerian politics

Tinubu is a political phenomenon. Aside from Atiku ,he is the most experienced politician and arguably the most connected with a network of loyalists across many geopolitical zones. Though it is doubtful if he has enough political goodwill in the southeast and south south.

Tinubu will win his native Southwest, will have larger chunk of the north central many of whom share his belief on the need to restructure the country on the path of equity and justice. The Middle Belt are yearning for a change given their sad experience of killings, kidnappings and threat to their farmlands under Buhari the People’s Democratic Party’s candidate being another Fulani as Buhari will be a hard sell. Tinubu is most likely to win larger chunk of the votes, while the rest will be shared by Kwankwask and Atiku.

In the Northwest, the votes will go for a split but given the preponderance of APC governors in the zone, much of it will go to Tinubu with a threatening challenge from Atiku.

The Kano votes seen as deciders will be split but the larger share is expected to go to Tinubu given the influence of Abdullahi Ganduje, governor of Kano State. An astute politican and Tinubu’s loyalist. He has proved in the past that he was in charge as he routed the duo of former governors Kwankwanso and Shekarau in 2019 election.

In the Northeast, Atiku will win Adamawa and Taraba with wide margins, but in Yobe and Borno, Tinubu is most likely going to carry the day given the support of former governor Shettima of Borno and the current governor Zulum who are Tinubu’s loyalists.

In South south, the Atiku phenomenon may have been dimmed by the treatment metted out to the Rivers State governor,Nyesom Wike by PDP who has enormous influence.

Only last week, the triumvirate of Fayemi the Ekiti State governor, Babajide Sanwoolu of Lagos State and the Ondo State governor with former Ekiti State governor Ayodele Fayose tagging along visited Wike in PortHacourt.

We don’t need a soothsayer to know that the visit was to seek Wike’s support for Tinubu.
Tinubu is expected to fare better in the south south than Atiku. Obi is also going to get some votes in the zone.

Atiku Abubakar: the foxy politician

Atiku Abubakar, no doubt is an old political war horse with wide experience in politics. As Influential as he is he may turned out weaker in his current attempt to be president come 2023.

With emergence of Ibrahim Shettima former governor of Borno State as Tinubu’s running mate, the Atiku presidential bid may not be easy as it seems given that Tinubu is an old political foxy who is not known to lose political battles. By picking a running mate from Atiku’s region, he has given the latter a deadly political upper cut.

Atiku going by facts on the ground has not been able to replicate that kind of advantage.
The party whose flag is flying is divided, unhelped by bitter primary election, which has pitted the party and Atiku against its biggest financier , the Rivers State governor Nyesom Wike.

This development will impact negatively on Atiku’s chances in the south south where Wike is a larger than life figure.

In Delta State whose governor, Okowa he (Atiku) picked as vice presidential candidate, the chances of Atiku getting massive votes are slim given Okowa’s breached relationship with James Ibori, and the latter’s hostility to Okowa’s emergence as vice presidential candidate.
In the south east,Atiku is dead on arrival as the Igbo will not leave their own and vote for Atiku given the region’s long time quest for Igbo presidency.

In the Southwest, given the liberal nature of southwest politics,Atiku will get a sizable votes but marginal and not strong enough to make any impact given the clamour for power shift to the South

With the different permutations heralding the emergence of Atiku, Tinubu, Kwankwaso and Obi as prominent presidential candidates in the 2023 elections, it is a long shot from now to say with any iota of certainty, who would emerge victorious in the contest. Perhaps what is certain is that it will be the most fascinating presidential election in Nigeria’s wobbling democracy.

Overall, while Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu may have better name recognition, national spread, and the presence of political party structures across the federation, other candidates like Peter Obi and Kwakwanso, resonate resoundingly among young and middle-class voters, and those who are looking for an opportunity for a shift from the status quo and established system.

Though religion and ethnicity have always played strong roles in the North, it is doubtful if Atiku can coast home on those parameters now given current scenario, shifting political dynamics and the desire of the APC governors out of enlightened self interest to support the APC presidential candidate for their own relevance and political future.

Supporting Atiku on the basis of sentiments will put them out of political circulation for eight years, a spectre they don’t want.

It is likely given all the permutations that Bola Ahmed Tinubu may win the presidential election come 2023. Shettima’s emergence is a plus for him as it’s a politically correct move.

The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) though angry at Muslim/Muslim ticket will still vote for him, being liberal and having the frame of mind that understands nuances, they are not known to harbour fundamentalist streak.

They may not be able to stomach the idea of another Fulani succeeding president Buhari,a Fulani given Nigerians’ experience with insecurity and herdsmen issues. The lesser of the two evils for majority of Christians may be Tinubu, Muslim/Muslim ticket not withstanding.