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2023: Past record, poor governance haunt PDP, APC campaigns
By OBINNA EZUGWU
Nigeria’s February 2023 presidential election, on paper, ought to be a two-horse race between the country’s ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), and the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which between them share 35 states and an overwhelming majority of national and state assembly seats, what has come to be known as “structure,” in addition to parading formidable political figures in Bola Tinubu, former Lagos State governor and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, former vice president, as candidates.
However, events thus far have shown that it won’t be an easy ride for the two leading parties, which bogged down by combined 23 years of insipid leadership, are finding it hard to inspire and connect with the mass of the country’s disillusioned young population, and indeed older generations for whom the economic difficulties of the past few years are reason enough for some introspection.
A few months ago, not many people could have imagined the possibility of a third force; another political platform that could rival the two big parties going into 2023, talks of alliances by National Consultative Front (NCF), among others, having fallen through. But from out of nowhere, Mr. Peter Obi, former Anambra State governor who opted out of the PDP days before the party’s presidential primary, is crystallising a third force. Now the rallying point for many who say they tired of the status quo, Obi is proving to be a real factor in 2023.
“We’re tired of the PDP and the APC, we want to try something new. People are suffering, people are hungry,” said Chidinma Emezuom, a young graduate in Ojodu, Lagos State. “We want Peter Obi, he’s younger, energetic, and knows what he’s talking about. They say we his supporters are only on social media, but we will see when election comes.”
Obi is by miles the most popular candidate in the country’s social media space. He’s consistently trounced both Atiku and Tinubu in online polls, and since talks of a merger between his Labour Party and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso’s New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) broke down, the former Kano governor has gradually melted away into insignificance in the 2023 conversation, at least as far as social discuss is concerned.
The two big parties have tended to dismiss him as just social phenomenon that would eventually peter out, after all, elections are not held on social media. Others have argued, like Abdullahi Adamu, national chairman of APC, that he’s only popular in the Southeast, his home region, and South South, close door neighbour to the Southeast.
According to Adamu who spoke in an interview with Trust TV last week, “Obi will take votes in the Southeast and probably South South, which are normally PDP strongholds. This good for us in the APC because it would help our course. I don’t think that would be enough for him to pose a challenge, but it means that we will be in a better position to win.”
Adamu’s views are shared by many in the camps of the two leading political parties. Many PDP supporters have expressed frustration that the Obi’s movement would ultimately hurt Atiku’s chances of winning the 2023 polls, as according to them, try as he may, Obi won’t be able to secure enough nationwide support to win the presidential election.
Obi
“The number one strategy of the Tinubu camp is to see Obi getting stronger in PDP traditional zones of South South and Southeast, lockdown Southwest usingYoruba Lokan and use the APC strong structure up to north to share votes or even take chunk,” said Hamma Hayatu, an Atiku supporter.
It is not in doubt that Tinubu is likely to win in his native South West by a good margin, and it’s also likely that himself and Atiku would be the strongest contenders for the votes in the core northern states. However, a survey by BH in Lagos showed that Obi is more popular than many care to admit, and his popularity is not only among people of Southeast or South South origin. Many South Westerners spoken to also expressed strong support for Peter Obi, citing “failure of the PDP and the APC.”
“What is it that Tinubu wants?” wondered Folorunso Samuel, a retiree at Ikeja,” What he has gotten from Lagos is not enough for him? What else does he want? People cannot even afford to buy bread anymore, yet they are asking us to vote APC? Not, we are tired of them. We no longer want both APC and PDP.”
Indeed, while many tend to believe that the Obi movement is only on social media, evidence shows that his supporters are actively mobilizing support at the grassroots.
“Social media is very important instrument in winning elections,” argued F.S. Yusuf, a member of the ‘Obedient’ movement, the name supporters of the former Anambra governor have come to be known.
“But social media is not my fear, my fear is INEC. The efficacy of social media will depend on the credibility of INEC,” Yusuf said on Arise TV last week.
“On social media, what we ‘Obedients’ do is that we bring our reports from grassroots mobilization that we have been doing. In fact, we have also used social media to encourage more Nigerians to register to vote, and now that registration has ended, we’re focused on encouraging people to get their PVCs.”
In 2015, Muhammadu Buhari, then presidential candidate of the APC, swept to power on the back of strong support from Tinubu, promising to stem the menace of corruption which was widely believed to be prevalent under the then ruling PDP, end insecurity and grow the economy. But seven years down the road, the economy is in six and sevens, poverty has spiked, inflation came at 19.64% in July 2022, from 15.75% in June and with food inflation spiking to 22.02% from 20.6% recorded in June.
Insecurity has also gone from a largely Northeast affair to a nationwide tragedy, with bandits operating mostly in the Northwest and North Central adding new dimension to the harvest of terror in the country.
Corruption in the estimation of many has also gotten worse. The naira, which for many is a measure of the strength of the economy, has gone from about N200 to the dollar in 2015, to around N700 to the dollar in 2022, with an unprecedented rise in prices of commodities.
Anger and frustration have continued to build, and try as they have, the Tinubu campaigners have been unable to extricate him from the failures of the APC government, while many say they are not keen on PDP’s return to power either, especially with Atiku, it’s candidate also having a reputation for being “corrupt” and Tinubu’s image not being a corrupt-free one.
“Both PDP and APC are one and the same,” said Olagoke Lateef in Ketu, Lagos. “Tinubu and Atiku are one of a kind. We want fresh air, we want a new Nigeria.”
Obi, who is the most visible alternative, and who has good track record in many people’s reckoning, in addition to being much younger at 61, than Tinubu and Atiku in their 70s, has become the very attractive alternative.
“Peter Obi has made all of them (PDP and APC) jittery,” said veteran broadcast journalist, Jimi Disu. “Both the Tinubu and Atiku camps are now facing Peter Obi.
“But the sweetest thing about this Peter Obi movement is that it is organic. He doesn’t pay people to support him, it comes from the heart of the people, and the evidence is there. The fact is that all of them are jittery about Peter Obi. He took them by surprise, he even took me by surprise. We just woke up one day and all over the place, people are talking about Peter Obi.”
Tinubu, former Lagos State governor and a Muslim from the Southwest geopolitical zone, had in June named Kashim Shettima, a former governor of Borno State, Northeast, and a fellow Muslim as his running mate, shunning the argument against Muslim-Muslim ticket in the event.
Though for the Lagos politician, the logic is simple … he expects to win his Southwest zone, irrespective of the religion of his running mate, and will find it difficult in the Southeast and South South, while the core north on the other hand, where he expects to get the votes, is predominantly Muslim, and religion is a huge part of the region’s politics… the backlash against the move is proving to be stronger than he could have anticipated.
Northern APC Christians and other Christians stakeholders in the region have since gone up in arms against the ticket. Led by Babachir Lawal, former secretary to the government of the federation and Hon. Yakubu Dogara, former speaker of the house of representatives, the Christians had in a summit last month in Abuja, argued that the Muslim-Muslim ticket is part of a “plot to marginalize them and islamize Nigeria.”
The umbrage among northern Christians over the Muslim-muslim ticket shows no sign of abating, and stems from a long history of facing marginalisation in the region. Tinubu, while seeking to appeal to the Muslim voting bloc in the north may have succeeded in alienating a significant section of the northern demographic, which may indeed haunt him at the February polls.
But neither Atiku nor Tinubu is having a smooth sail. While the fact of the former vice president being a northerner running against a southerner will be a plus for him as far as northern votes are concerned, he is likely going to struggle in the Southeast and South South, more so in the former, hitherto PDP strongholds, with the emergence of Obi.
Indeed, the former Anambra governor is is making inroads in other zones, particularly the north central, and indeed the rest of the country, even among a number of Muslims in the North.
“I think there is a tendency, especially among the more established parties, to underrate the impact of Peter Obi,” said Chidi Anthony,” Abuja based lawyer and public affairs commentator.
“I’m of the opinion that he would surprise many. He has huge youth support across the south and the middle belt, perhaps even across the country. They can keep arguing that he is social media phenomenon.”
In 2019, Atiku swept southeast, south south and parts of the middle belt while also getting good numbers in the Southwest, but ultimately came short as Buhari won a second term, even if his victory was contentious.
A good number of those who voted Atiku in 2019, considering him as a better option than Buhari, are rooting for Obi ahead of 2023, and for the former vice president, that is a cause for worry.
This is even as his decision to name Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa, Delta State governor, as his running mate, has alienated Nyesom Wike, governor of Rivers State who was said to have been preferred by majority of the governors and members of the national working committee; a situation that has triggered a crisis in the party, which remains unresolved.
Yet, for the two leading candidates, the Obi factor and the Muslim-muslim ticket controversy are not the only issues to worry about.
As at the last count, there are at least 10 suits challenging their candidacy; cases ranging from frivolous to potentially damaging ones, even so, as in the case of Tinubu, he’s had a hard time shaking off his alleged drug dealing and certificate scandals, which once again, resurfaced to haunt him.
