Politics
Ondo guber poll: Too close to call
…as anxiety reigns over outcome
On Saturday, November 16, 2024, the people of Ondo State would troop out in numbers to vote in the governorship election, which is regarded as the one that would determine the fate of the two main political parties in the state for the next four years.
No doubt, it is going to be an epoch election, as the candidates have deployed all it takes to ensure that they win. Since the last month, when the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, opened the floor for campaigns, all the parties have been going around the nooks and crannies of the state to convince voters through their community, and religious leaders.
Also, in the last week, it has been observed that the state is bubbling, as politicians were not hiding the distributions of their palliatives actually meant to induce voters ahead of the polling day.
Business Hallmark checks indicated that distributions of palliatives, such as rice, beans, gari, fertilizers to farmers and pesticides, which did not occur months back, are now going on all over the place and that was why some concerned citizens have tagged the gesture as an inducement to woo voters.
Preparations
In all, for the Saturday Election, 17 political parties have been cleared for the contests by the INEC, which declared that it is ready to conduct a hitch-free election.
To ensure that the commission is concerned about the election and ready to improve on its performance at the Edo election, Chairman of the Commission, Prof. Mahmud Yakubu, was personally in Ondo State last week, to witness the preparations already put in place.
He expressed satisfaction with the preparation with 17,000 ad-hoc and regular personnel, while materials have been distributed to 4,154 voting and collation centers, 3,933, polling units, 203 wards in all the 18 local governments of the State.
On the side of security to be provided, the Inspector General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun, who went round the whole state last week too, assured that adequate security during the election would be ensured, saying that enough armoured personnel carrier, PCs, patrol helicopters, ambulances, drones K9, and anti riot equipments, have been put in place to support the Ondo state police command, with 8 500 personnel going to be deployed for hitch free election on Saturday.
As it has been the usual practice of the National Peace Committee to ensure peaceful conduct of elections to sue for peace, the Committee was also in Ondo State last week, with its Chairman, the former Head of State General Andulsalam Abubakar, who called for the peaceful conduct of the election, as he made the party leaders and candidates to sign a peace accord, urging them to accept the results of the election, as long they were convinced that, it was free, fair and credible.
Contenders
With all these preparations put in place, and with the activities and campaigns of the parties still being intensified, which they would all end on Thursday November,14, it is certain that the political parties and candidates would have over 2,053,061 registered voters to contend with.
The election, it was said, would be a close battle between two contenders, Gov. Lucky Aiyedatiwa of the All Progressives Congress (APC), and Agboola Ajayi of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Both candidates have one thing in common. They were both deputies to Late Arakunrin Oluwarotimi Akeredolu during his life time, as the governor of Ondo State.
Agboola served first before Aiyedatiwas was chosen to replace him during the second term of Akeredolu, which he did not complete because of ill health and eventual death. This, however gave Aiyedatiwa the opportunity to complete Akeredolu’s second term, as substantive governor of the state, running to over 10 months now that he has been piloting the affairs of Ondo State.
Although there were other candidates from other political parties, who are strong in their own way and who could be spoilers that could favour either of the two strong contenders, the notion actually is that without any doubt, the election is going to be very tough and a two horse race between Agboola Ajayi and Lucky Aiyedatiwa, as both ironically are from the same area and the same Senatorial zone.
Both candidates, it was learnt, have been targeting low income earners, families, artisans, civil servants, religious, community leaders and most importantly the youths.
Also, the political atmosphere in Ondo state is witnessing underground manoeuvring, some of which led to the defection of the deputy G
governorship candidates of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Mrs. Susan Gbemisola Alabi, to the APC at the days of the week to the election, claiming that she was attracted to the APC due to the leadership and performance of Governor Aiyedatiwa in the provision of dividend of democracy in the last 10 months that he took over the affairs of the State.
However, from the INEC approval of parties and candidates, the incumbent governor, Lurcky Ayaidatiwa, is flying the flag of the All Progressives Congress (APC), while Chief Agboola Ajayi is running under the platform of the Peoples Democratic party (PDP). Barrister Sola Ebiseni, former commissioner for Environment and Mineral Resources, in Ondo State has the ticket of the Labour Party (LP); Hon. Gbenga Edema, a former member of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), is running under the platform of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP), while Otunba Bamidele Akingboye is flying the flag of the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
All these five political parties and their candidates are showing strengths and the will to win the election with all available chances and opportunities at their disposals.
Despite the fact that candidates of all the five parties have shown their commitments to fight for the number one position in Ondo State, observers still see the contest to be among the two strong and major political parties – of the APC and the PDP – believing that they are the ones fully on ground.
It has also been argued that the NNPP and the Labour party may stand as spoilers because of their candidates.
Edema has been in politics for a long time, and out of annoyance left the APC after the primaries that produced Aiyedatiwa.
For Ebiseni, he has been in the race for three times and count on the youths in the state because of the choice of his deputy, who was the former commissioner for youths mobilisation in the state, and impacted greatly on the youths.
Deciding factors
From the look of things, there are strong indications that four major factors would play out in the governorship race. These factors are personality, money, senatorial Influence, and choice of their running mates, which has to do with calculations of the senatorial zones, where they were picked.
What is going to make the election very interesting is the fact that all the major aspirants, and most importantly, the two main contenders, Aiyedatiwa and Ajayi, are from the same Ondo South Senatorial Districts.
This means that the votes in that Senatorial District would be shared and people are likely to vote according to their interests and what they have personally or collectively benefitted from the aspirants in this zone and even other two zones.
Since all the candidates are from the South Senatorial zone, all of them, would scramble for votes in their common Senatorial zones, while looking for other Senatorial zones of the North and the Central to garner substantial votes to boost their chances.
Debate
One other factor, which is counting presently is the governorship debate between Aiyedatiwa and Agboola, which has drawn different opinions from within and outside the state. A lot of people rated Agboola very high as an experienced candidates, who knows and sure of what he wanted while in power, while others said Aiyedatiwa was not very well articulate in his views and projections.
As the people of the state still talked about the debate, the two political parties are now at each other’s throats over the debate. While the APC called Agboola as someone not telling the truth and ranting , the PDP described Ayeidatiwa performance as “lacklustre and disappointing.”
The present Commissioner of Information, Wole Akinlisotu hailed his boss and said he has taken governance to another level since he took over fully 10 months ago, and argued that Agboola has nothing to offer the people of the State.
But the PDP Special Adviser on Media and Publicity campaign organisation, Mr. Ayo Fadaka said, Aiyedatiwa performance was lacklustre and disappointing as “he could not provide clear answers, statistical analyses or insights into pressing state matters as he stumbled through debate”.
“Ayeidatiwa was uneasy and struggled to coordinate his responses, and his inability to disclose his monthly security votes speaks volumes about transparency.”
He added “our aspirations to elect a governor with the experience to handle the responsibilities of office is reaffirmed as Aiyedatiwa lacklustre performance resonated with the public”
INEC REC
The issues earlier in the front burner and which is creating more tension, was caused by the PDP, which alleged that the State Resident Electoral Commissioner, Mrs. Oluwatoyin Babalola, would be a partial umpire to conduct the election.
This allegation was re- echoed by governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo state, at the first day of the party’s campaign. The governor emphasized that he was resounding the allegation against the REC, which the party stalwarts in Ondo State had been agitating for and as such, called on the INEC Chairman Professor Yakubu Mohammed to remove her before the November 16 election.
Governor Makinde had alleged that the PDP was sure that Mrs. Babalola would not be fair in the conduct of the election and must be removed.
To him, “we are not afraid of the contest but the PDP would not relent and would continue its agitation on Mrs. Babalola, until she is removed. “She is an indigene of Ondo state and not needed for this crucial election.
The APC responded immediately to the fire which Makinde had ignited. The issue has now turned controversial and may be a determining factor, viewed in many quarters, to justify a free and fair election.
According to the Director of Publicity of APC in the state, Steve Otaloro, “the PDP is fond of making wirld allegations, arguing that the REC has been known to carry out her duties without being influenced by anybody in APC and she has never had any meeting or meetings with either Governor Ayeidatiwa or any member of the APC, as far as they were concerned”
“To us, what we care about is how to win the election and we are sure that the people would decide”
He, therefore asked Makinde to stay away from Ondo politics. “Makinde behaves like an emperor and always likes to prove that he is everywhere. He should realize that Ondo is different from Oyo where he behaves like Lord. ”
Also when contacted by the Business Hallmark, the Publicity Secretary of the APC, Mr Alex Kalejaiye, declared, “why is Makinde acting as if he is all in all, and why has he not realized that Ondo is different and not an appendage of Oyo state?:
With the situation of things and with the calculations going on, the contest as it was earlier said is between the APC and the PDP. The game is described as 50/50; between them.
When contacted for comments on the situation so far about the Ondo election, the former Commissioner for Culture and Tourism in Ondo State, Dr. Femi Adekanbi, said “the election is a foregone conclusion in favour of Aiyedatiwa and those contesting against him are no oppositions at all.”
When made to realize the impact which the zones would make on the candidates, especially the Ondo South where all of them are from, he “said, strong politicians in all the zone are already with Aiyedatiwa, and I can assure you that all his opponents would be walked over”
On whether the PDP candidate, Agboola Ajayi is a threat to their principal, he argued,. “he is not a threat but there is no doubt that he is a good candidates and very strong politically but his problem is that he is contesting in a wrong political party.”
In his own reaction when contacted, the Director of Media and Publicity for PDP, Hon. Leye Igbabo, said that PDP is solidly on ground and that the party would win the election because the people are fed up with the APC.
He said the crowds that witnessed their rallies so far has, shown that the people are fed up with the APC both at the centre and in Ondo State
