Nigeria fails to meet OPEC oil quota despite rising global crude prices

Concern is mounting over Nigeria’s continued inability to meet its crude oil production target under the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreement, a development analysts say is limiting the country’s ability to benefit fully from the recent surge in global oil prices driven by the Iran conflict.

Data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that Nigeria produced an average of 1.49 million barrels of crude oil per day in April, falling slightly short of the country’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels daily.

The figures indicate that Nigeria has now missed its OPEC production benchmark for nine consecutive months since July 2025, despite repeated assurances by government officials that output was improving.

According to the NUPRC, average crude production in April stood at 1,488,540 barrels per day, representing about 99 per cent of the OPEC allocation. Including condensates, total daily oil production rose to approximately 1.66 million barrels per day.

The latest output level represented a modest recovery compared to previous months, with combined crude and condensate production peaking at 1.85 million barrels per day during the month and dropping to a low of 1.46 million barrels per day at some points.

However, the country’s inability to consistently meet its assigned quota has raised fresh concerns within the energy sector, particularly at a time when international crude prices have climbed sharply amid tensions in the Middle East and fears of supply disruptions linked to the Iran war.

Industry analysts say Nigeria should ordinarily be among the major beneficiaries of rising oil prices given its dependence on crude exports for government revenue and foreign exchange earnings. But persistent production shortfalls have prevented the country from taking full advantage of the favourable market conditions.

Global crude prices have remained elevated in recent weeks following escalating hostilities involving Iran, with uncertainty around global supply routes and fears of prolonged disruptions pushing prices upward.

Despite this, Nigeria’s earnings potential has continued to be constrained by longstanding operational problems in the oil sector, including crude theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure and insufficient upstream investment.

The April figures also contrasted with earlier statements by the NUPRC suggesting that Nigeria’s oil production had reached around 1.8 million barrels per day.

Analysts noted that while occasional peak production levels may approach that figure, sustained average output remains significantly lower.

Nigeria’s crude oil production has fluctuated sharply over the past year. In March, production averaged about 1.38 million barrels per day, up from 1.31 million barrels per day in February, but still below the OPEC target.

Earlier official figures showed that output weakened towards the end of 2025, falling from 1.436 million barrels per day in November to 1.422 million barrels per day in December before recovering slightly in January 2026.

Although production improved marginally in January, when Nigeria recorded about 1.46 million barrels per day, the rebound proved temporary as output declined again in February.

Throughout 2025, Nigeria failed to meet its OPEC quota in nine months, achieving or slightly exceeding the target only in January, June and July.

The country had started last year strongly with production of about 1.54 million barrels per day in January, surpassing its OPEC allocation by roughly 38,700 barrels daily. However, output weakened steadily in subsequent months.

Stakeholders in the petroleum sector have repeatedly stressed the need for more aggressive action to address insecurity around oil facilities, improve pipeline surveillance and attract fresh investment into upstream operations.

The Federal Government has intensified efforts to curb crude theft and implement reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act, but industry experts argue that the measures have yet to produce the level of stability needed to significantly boost production.

Economists warn that continued inability to meet production targets could place additional pressure on government finances, especially as Nigeria seeks to improve foreign exchange inflows and fund key budgetary commitments.

They also note that if production challenges persist, Nigeria risks missing a rare opportunity to strengthen its fiscal position during a period of elevated global oil prices caused by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.