August 15 election: Osun at critical stage as tension, fear mount over killings, intimidation

By Olusesan Laoye

With less than 20 days to the next governorship election in Osun State, scheduled for August 15, 2026, there are growing fears of intimidation and tension across the state, as campaigns and other election-related activities have entered a critical stage.

Across the state, the unchecked actions of politicians and their supporters, including killings, harassment and high levels of thuggery, are making residents increasingly fearful of participating in the election.

For the past two months, since the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) gave the go-ahead for political campaigns, what many expected to be a smooth and friendly exercise has turned the state into a theatre of political warfare, particularly between the two main contenders: the Accord Party, under which the incumbent governor, Ademola Adeleke, is seeking a second term, and the All Progressives Congress (APC), which has remained bitter since 2022 when Governor Adeleke, then on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), wrested power from it. The APC is now determined to reclaim power through its candidate, Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, whose campaign slogan is AMBO.

The Osun governorship election is one of Nigeria’s off-cycle elections. Although INEC has listed more than 14 political parties for the 2026 race, only three are regarded as active and fielding widely recognised candidates.

Many are called…

The three parties are the Accord Party, with Adeleke as its candidate; the APC, with Oyebamiji, who enjoys the strong backing of former governor and current Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Gboyega Oyetola; and the African Democratic Congress (ADC), represented by Hon. Najeem Salaam, former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, who is backed by former governor and immediate past Minister of Interior under the late President Muhammadu Buhari, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola.

Of the three, only the ADC candidate, Hon. Salaam, has, at least for now, not been linked with violence, as he has been quietly going about his campaign with little public attention.

Many residents believe that only the former Speaker has maintained a clean slate.

Both the APC and the Accord Party have been confrontational and have allegedly been involved in shootings, intimidation, and displays of power and strength.

These developments have become the order of the day, giving residents sleepless nights and creating uncertainty about their movements, as they are unsure of who may become the next casualty. Innocent people have increasingly become victims.

Tension has risen significantly across the state, especially in Ede, Governor Adeleke’s hometown, and Osogbo, the state capital, where the Ataoja of Osogbo, Oba Jimoh Oyetunji, who has not hidden his political leaning, was allegedly attacked and his palace vandalised.

The monarch did not mince words, claiming that the attack was politically motivated and allegedly carried out by a prominent political party uncomfortable with his stance on the political situation in the state.

There have also been a series of violent incidents in Ikire, Irewole Local Government Area, where the son of a female political leader, Kolade Eluyera, was killed.

Violence has also been reported in the Ilesa axis, and the situation has become a major security concern that many believe must be addressed before election day. Many residents now speculate that the poll could be bloody, discouraging voters from turning out.

Perhaps the most disturbing incident was the recent clash in Osogbo, where two rival factions of the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW) engaged in a violent confrontation described as the worst outbreak of violence in the state ahead of the election.

Violence expected

Gunfire erupted as rival groups clashed over the control of motor parks, with the opposition APC accused of engineering the violence ahead of the governorship election to strengthen its electoral advantage and influence election logistics.

What particularly disturbed residents was the conduct of police officers present at the scene, who allegedly looked on while the shootings and attacks continued.

The growing political violence prompted the Inspector-General of Police, Olatunji Rilwan Disu, to visit the state and call for peace. However, the subsequent outbreak of violence despite the IGP’s visit has fuelled public suspicion that something may be amiss.

Given the current situation, many residents are wondering whether this is what they must now live with, recalling similar experiences during the elections of 2014, 2018 and 2022.

Governor Adeleke first contested in 2018 and was initially declared the winner before the election was pronounced inconclusive. A rerun was subsequently conducted, and the immediate past governor, Oyetola, was declared the winner. However, Adeleke defeated him in 2022 to become governor.

While some political observers believe the tense atmosphere reflects the APC’s determination to reclaim Osun and strengthen President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s position ahead of the 2027 presidential election, others argue that, with or without the APC controlling Osun, Tinubu’s political fortunes would remain largely unchanged.

They contend that even if Adeleke wins, Tinubu could still secure more votes in Osun than if the APC controlled the state because Adeleke would neither work against the President nor seek to undermine his electoral chances.

This group further argued that Tinubu would have preferred Adeleke to contest under the APC. According to them, Adeleke explored joining the party when the PDP became divided, but the Oyetola and Senator Iyiola Omisore factions resisted the move, preventing him from joining the APC.

Opposition to Gov. Adeleke

It was also argued that Omisore vehemently opposed Adeleke’s entry into the APC because of his own political ambition, without realising that the Oyetola group had only aligned with him to stop Adeleke from securing the party’s ticket. Eventually, technicalities were allegedly used to edge Omisore and others perceived as threats out of the contest.

Since Oyebamiji emerged as the APC candidate, Omisore’s supporters have reportedly viewed the grounds for his disqualification and those of others as flimsy.

Politically, it is now believed that Omisore is no longer aligned with the Oyetola group, especially as many of his loyalists have reportedly joined Adeleke in the Accord Party.

With this development, many believe the APC now feels compelled to prove it can win without Omisore’s support, as confidence in his loyalty appears to have waned despite his continued claims of remaining in the party.

Consequently, some observers argue that the APC is determined to deploy every available strategy to win the election.

However, the prevailing situation has left Governor Adeleke deeply concerned. He has repeatedly expressed dismay over the persistent violence and attacks on members of his party and innocent residents.

Of particular concern to him, according to his supporters, is what they describe as the failure of the police in the state to respond effectively to the violence, alleging that officers often look the other way when mayhem occurs during the election period.

A public affairs analyst and political commentator, Elder Moses Olorode, a former Press Secretary in Oyo State and Chief Executive of Matlord Media Services, told Business Hallmark in a telephone interview that the political crisis in Osun should not come as a surprise.

“The political crisis in Osun should be expected because the state has always been a political hotbed in the South-West, even during the Action Group era when it was still a province, and during the Second Republic. That was why the late strongman of Ibadan politics, Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu, always described Osun as ‘the bed of the Wild Wild West’,” he said.

He argued that the APC is eager to reclaim the state because Governor Adeleke, who entered politics following the death of his brother, Isiaka Adetunji Adeleke, wrested power from the party in 2022.

“The popularity of the incumbent has grown beyond many people’s expectations, and Demola Adeleke, being a street boy, has capitalised on that popularity to win the hearts of many residents of the state,” he said.

“As far as I am concerned, the Osun governorship election will be a tough one. I urge INEC and the security agencies to ensure the election is conducted peacefully. Nothing should be done that could trigger large-scale violence because the people of the state will not tolerate any hanky-panky with their votes.”