2027: President Tinubu in trouble over Muslim-Muslim ticket 

…as U.S pressure, North’s resistance complicate choice

Barely three years into his first term, President Bola Tinubu is already confronting the combustible question about whether he can, or should, retain the controversial Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket that powered his victory in 2023, as he looks towards the 2027 general election. 

This time, however, the pressure is no longer only domestic, with the United States under President Donald Trump, emerging as a factor in the internal calculations of Africa’s most populous democracy.

At the heart of the controversy is Vice President, Kashim Shettima, whose political future has become the subject of intense speculation amid claims that Washington is uncomfortable with the continuation of a same-faith ticket in a deeply plural country like Nigeria. According to political insiders, Trump’s renewed interest in Nigeria, framed largely around allegations of Christian persecution, has injected a new layer of complexity into Tinubu’s reelection strategy.

Trump, who during his first term designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” over alleged violations of religious freedom, has revived the rhetoric with characteristic force. Speaking last week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump, who on Christmas eve, ordered airstrikes on terrorists locations in Sokoto State, declared: “In Nigeria, we’re annihilating terrorists, who are killing Christians. We’ve hit them very hard. They have killed thousands and thousands of Christians.”

He had previously vowed to come to Nigeria, “guns blazing,” a remark that rattled the Tinubu administration.

Although the Nigerian government insists that insecurity affects both Muslims and Christians, Trump has maintained a narrative of targeted violence against Christians, a position that has resonated strongly with sections of the American conservative establishment.

Running Mate For 2027

It is against this backdrop that reports have emerged suggesting that Tinubu is under quiet pressure from the U.S to reconsider the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2027. While there is no official confirmation of direct American intervention, multiple sources within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), say the issue has moved from the realm of fringe commentary into serious strategic discussion.

At different points, names, such as National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu, Defence Minister General Christopher Musa (retd), and even the Catholic Bishop of Sokoto Diocese, Matthew Hassan Kukah, have been floated as possible Christian running mates. Ribadu, a Muslim from the North East, was reportedly once considered as a replacement for Shettima on regional-cum ethnic grounds, particularly to satisfy the North West, which delivered a significant bloc of votes for Tinubu in 2023.

Musa, a Northern Christian from Kaduna  in the North-West, is now being mentioned in some quarters as a figure, who could satisfy both American concerns and domestic Christian demands. Unknown to many people, the North ever the predominantly Muslim enclave of North West, has large populations of Christians.

Others have mentioned Bishop Kukah, though his clerical status makes such a move constitutionally and doctrinally improbable. As one analyst put it bluntly, “The Catholic Church will not allow Kukah. It is not even a serious proposition.”

Disequilibrium in the Party

What seems obvious, however, is that the conversation has unsettled the political equilibrium within the APC, particularly in the North, where religious and regional sensibilities intersect sharply. For many in the Muslim North, the idea of dropping Shettima is seen as a betrayal.

In an interview last week, Hannatu Musawa, Tinubu’s minister warned that not having a Muslim on the ticket could hurt APC ticket in 2027.

The resistance was dramatically illustrated on June 15, 2025, when an APC North East stakeholders’ meeting in Gombe descended into chaos. The trigger was the endorsement of Tinubu for a second term by the party’s National Vice Chairman (North East), Comrade Mustapha Salihu, without any mention of Shettima.

When the then APC National Chairman, Abdullahi Ganduje, followed suit in a 10-minute speech that also omitted the Vice President, the hall erupted. Delegates shouted, chairs were hurled, and security operatives were forced to escort party leaders out of the venue as the meeting collapsed into disorder.

An AIT television footage of the incident went viral, reinforcing perceptions in the North East that a deliberate strategy was underway to sideline Shettima. Although Deputy National Chairman (North), Bukar Dalori, later attempted damage control by endorsing the Tinubu/Shettima ticket, the damage had been done. For many in the region, the episode confirmed long-simmering fears.

The North East, which contributed about 1.2 million votes to Tinubu’s tally in 2023, regards Shettima as its political anchor within the federal power structure. A former governor of Borno State and senator, Shettima combines technocratic credentials with grassroots appeal, making him, in the words of one APC chieftain from Borno, “too important to be treated as expendable.”

Governor Babagana Zulum of Borno has been among the most vocal defenders of the Vice President. At various forums, Zulum has praised Shettima’s “pivotal” role in the administration and warned against moves that could alienate the region.

“You cannot wish away the North East and expect to win a national election,” a senior party official in the zone, who craved anonymity said.

Mounting Anxiety Over Veepee

The anxiety is not confined to the North-East. In the North West, where Fulani political interests remain influential, the calculations are more complex. Many North West APC stakeholders had long argued that the zone, which delivered the highest number of votes for Tinubu in 2023, deserved the vice-presidential slot.

Yet, even within the North West, opinion seems divided. While some see a Christian vice-presidential candidate as a way to neutralise Western pressure and appeal to Christian minorities in the core North and North-Central, others fear it would deepen perceptions of marginalization among Northern Muslims.

Those fears have been articulated forcefully by commentators like Mohammed Bello Doka, who recently argued that a pattern of political displacement appears to be emerging. He cited the exit of Ganduje as APC National Chairman, the replacement of key security and electoral figures, and the speculation around Shettima as evidence that Northern Muslim influence is being steadily eroded.

“Abdullahi Umar Ganduje — Muslim, North — exited as APC National Chairman, replaced by Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda — Northern Christian,” he wrote. The electoral nerve center shifted from Mahmood Yakubu, Muslim North, replaced by Joash Amupitan, Northern Christian.

The Defence Ministry changed hands during a national security emergency; Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, Muslim North, was replaced by a Northern Christian, General Christopher Musa (ret’d). Senate security oversight was reshuffled, removing a Muslim Northern chair.

For Tinubu, the dilemma is acute. On one side is a vocal Christian constituency, both domestic and international, insisting that Nigeria’s delicate religious balance demands a Christian Vice President in 2027. On the other is a Muslim North that sees Shettima not just as a running mate, but as a symbol of trust and inclusion.

No Easy Way

As Dr. Reuben Abati, former presidential spokesman, warned recently, “It would, indeed, be a big miscalculation to attempt to displace Vice President Kashim Shettima… It is not just that the entire North-East would turn against the President; the emergence of a Christian in place of Shettima will turn the Muslim North, already agitated, against him.”

With 2027 still one year away, the battle lines are already being drawn. And as external pressure intersects with internal fault lines, Tinubu’s choice may well define not just his re-election prospects, but the future balance of Nigeria’s fragile political union.

Beyond elite commentary, the debate over the Muslim-Muslim ticket seems to have spilled decisively into the streets, party meetings and social media spaces, where emotions are raw and threats of political retaliation are increasingly explicit. What might once have been dismissed as abstract power play has now assumed the character of a regional and religious red line, especially for the North-East.

In one widely circulated video, an APC supporter from the region delivered an unambiguous warning: “Let Tinubu try it. If he dares drop Kashim Shettima, he should be ready for political consequences. Shettima was the anchor that convinced many of us to vote for the ticket. Replace him, and you break the trust. The response will be simple: we move to ADC.”

That sentiment has been echoed repeatedly by APC youth groups in the North-East. Speaking in Bauchi, Kabiru Garba Kobi, chairman of the APC Youth Parliament in the zone, dismissed the speculation around Shettima’s replacement as “dangerous and divisive.” He warned that “any attempt to replace Senator Kashim Shettima would amount to a grave political miscalculation that could cost President Tinubu massive support in the North, especially the North-East.”

Christian Minorities Find Voice

Yet, on the other side of the divide, Christian leaders and activists insist that retaining a Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2027 would amount to entrenching exclusion.

“Shettima is a Muslim, the President is a Muslim. Is that not complete genocide to Christians in the political world?” asked Reverend Ezekiel Dachomo, Regional Leader of the Church of Christ in Nations.

“The way forward is to remove Shettima. Part of the solution is that Shettima should be removed. All Christians should wake up and defend the Bible because these people are out to take over the country.”

Such rhetoric has been resisted by Muslim leaders, who argue that the framing of political competition as religious warfare is both inaccurate and dangerous. Still, the pressure from Christian constituencies is real, particularly in the North Central, where religious diversity is more pronounced. There, APC leaders have sought to strike a careful balance. The North-Central APC Forum, while acknowledging Christian grievances, has rejected calls to drop Shettima. In a statement signed by its chairman, Saleh Zazzaga, the forum warned that “there is serious danger in changing a winning ticket.”

“We totally and unequivocally reject calls and plans to drop Vice President Kashim Shettima,” the statement read. “Such a decision will turn out to be a grievous political miscalculation.” The forum argued that replacing Shettima would not deliver new votes to Tinubu, noting that many Christian minorities in the North had voted for Peter Obi in 2023 and were likely to do so again regardless of who emerged as vice-presidential candidate.

“If Peter Obi comes out again in 2027 on the platform of the ADC, what is the guarantee they will vote for Tinubu even if he drops Shettima and replaces him with a Christian?” the forum asked.

“Nigeria is an independent nation, and nobody is going to dictate to us,” it said, stressing that the Muslim-Muslim ticket “gave us victory in 2023.”

Actions Speak louder than words

Despite these assurances, symbolic actions within the party have continued to fuel suspicion. In Borno State, Speaker of the House of Assembly, Abdullahi Lawan, publicly expressed outrage over the omission of Shettima’s photograph from a prominent APC banner at a recent event.

“This is Borno State, and it’s in the North-East, but there’s no poster of the Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria,” he said pointedly. “Somebody is currently the Vice President of Nigeria, and in this gathering of APC, there’s no poster of the Vice President.”

Within the APC hierarchy, officials insist there is no formal plan to dump the Vice President. They point to occasions where Mustapha Salihu himself has passed a vote of confidence in Shettima, praising his role in the administration and dismissing talk of a rift as “social media gossip.”

But critics argue that the mixed signals reflect an unresolved struggle between competing blocs within the party, with the North East establishment, the North West power brokers, the ACN-bloc South West core, and emerging security and technocratic actors clustered around the presidency.

U.S Connection

Analysts say the U.S factor has complicated this already delicate balancing act. Trump’s narrative of Christian persecution, amplified by reports of U.S airstrikes against terrorist targets in parts of the North West, has emboldened domestic Christian advocates, who see 2027 as an opportunity to “correct” what they regard as an anomaly in Nigeria’s democratic tradition.

Yet, others caution against overestimating Washington’s influence. “The U.S can express preferences, but Nigerian elections are won and lost at home,” said one political analyst. “Tinubu’s primary concern will be votes, structures and party cohesion. On all three counts, dropping Shettima carries serious risks.”

For Tinubu, the clock is ticking. The signals sent now will shape alliances, loyalties and expectations. Retaining Shettima risks continued criticism from Christian groups at home and abroad, dropping him risks a revolt in the North East and deep resentment across the Muslim North.