Towards 2019: BH rate the Benue, Kogi electorate

The North Central region prior to the 2015 general election was a stronghold of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP. However, that influence waned as the All Progressives Congress (APC) won all the states in the North central. In this report, we take a look at how the electorate in Benue would vote this time given the political realignment that has taken place.

Since the return to democracy in 1999, Benue has been controlled by the PDP until 2015. President Muhammadu Buhari who contested had contested four times lost on three occasions. He was able to win in 2015 for the first time.

One of the major reasons the people of Benue voted out the then ruling party was because Gabriel Suswam who was the governor, owed worker salaries for several months. The people of the state complained endlessly of non-payment of salaries which they said was the bane of the Suswam administration.

The state is agrarian with a high dominance of civil servants in the elite class. Having the civil servants objecting to any government spells defeat for such administration. That made the PDP unpopular in the state.

The defection of party bigwigs such a former National PDP Chairman, Barnabas Gemade and former governor Senator George Akume from the PDP to the APC, further weakened the party. Suswam of the PDP was humiliated by his main rival, Barnabas Gemade of the APC, in the Benue Senatorial race.

Gemade, who defected from the PDP prior to the party’s primaries towards the end of 2014, defeated the governor with a total of 26,432 vote margin to win the keenly contested election. Samuel Ortom who is the current governor polled 422,932 votes to beat his closest rival in the contest, Terhemen Tarzoor of the PDP who polled 313,878 votes.

The crisis in the state chapter of the PDP and the issue of nonpayment of salaries favoured Muhammadu Buhari who defeated Goodluck Jonathan.  It was a close election though, as Buhari polled 373, 961 as opposed to Jonathan’s 303,737 votes.

A few years down the road, it does not look as rosy for Buhari and the APC as it was. Unlike four years ago, it has become difficult for members of the APC to campaign for Buhari. The major reason for this is the herdsmen and farmer’s crisis. Benue residents perceived one sidedness on the part of Buhari in handling the issue.

The Fulani herdsmen have been having altercations with farmers for many years, mainly in the Middle Belt region of Nigeria. Farmers and herdsmen lost their lives in these clashes. Today, the herdsmen wield sophisticated weapons, and have become vicious and savagery in their attacks in the Middle Belt.

The worst hit state was Benue. There have been attacks there for the past two years. The most publicized happened in January 1, 2018 when over 70 people were killed in two days.

While other Nigerians were celebrating the New Year despite the fuel scarcity, residents of Benue went through the horror of the herdsmen. It was reported that 50 persons including women and children were gruesomely murdered in cold blood by herdsmen in Guma and Logo local government areas in one night.

The next day, 23 people were killed. Some of the causalities included livestock guards who were assigned to enforce anti-open grazing law. Two weeks later, 73 of them were given a mass burial by the Benue State government.

The Federal Government’s inability to ensure that justice was done further drove people away from the ruling party. The Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders’ Association of Nigeria (MACBAN), made statements that heated the polity. They tried to justify some of these killings by their utterances. As a result, in what seemed like a reprisal attack, some irate youths burnt down a vehicle with passenger suspected to be Fulani men in it. The youth took it personally.

The attack that claimed over 70 lives in a day was the straw that broke the camel’s back. First the party leadership in the state was taken away from Gov. Ortom and handed over to Akume; and secondly, he was denied the party’s ticket for a second term.

He had no other choice than to dump the ruling APC. He had to obey the wish of his people. Remaining in the APC would have been detrimental to his re-election bid.

According to reports, APC is called “Miyetti party” in Benue State because the people view it as a party that supports the invasions by the herdsmen.

 All efforts by Senator George Akume of the APC to dispel this view have proved abortive. Business Hallmark also gathered that unlike 2015, it is very difficult to publicly campaign for the APC in Benue State.

“It may cost you your life,” Edwin Ochai a member of the APC said. “Many of us that were given funds to mobilize supporters for the party cannot afford to risk our lives.

“The president should have taken urgent steps to stop the bloodshed in the state. Now it is too late.”

A former Managing Director, Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority (NEPZA), Mr. Emmanuel Jime, who is the governorship candidate of the APC in Benue, is also finding it difficult to woo voters. He is seen as a stooge of Buhari who will enforce grazing on their farm lands.

As for Ortom, he left the APC at the right time. The popular opinion is that if he had not jumped ship, someone else would have benefited from it.

Speaking on the prospect of Gov. Ortom winning reelection, and the chances of the APC and Buhari in Benue State, the President General of the Tiv youths Organzation, TYO, Timothy Hembaor hinted that the people were with the governor.

Hembaor said, “The APC is already a dead party in the state because the party produced a presidency that has shown that it is indifferent to the massacre in the middle belt and Benue State in particular. We are working with like minds and responsible Nigerians to ensure that APC is voted out in the coming elections.

 “It will be a miracle for Buhari to secure even 10 per cent of votes cast in Benue State.”

The situation however, is looking good for the presidential candidate of the PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. Although he is a Fulani man like Buhari, the people of Benue see him as more urbane and open. They feel he would be fair to all parties in times of crises.

Kogi is another state in the North Central region that was controlled by the People’s Democratic Party for over 12 years. The PDP had been in control of the state from 2003, till the “broom revolution” of the All Progressives Congress, APC in 2015.

It swept across the North and Kogi was not left out. Fast forward to four years later, they have not been able to manage the success.

President Muhammadu Buhari with the help of Senator Dino Melaye of Kogi West, late Prince Abubakar Audu (Kogi East) and heavy weights from the Central senatorial zone won Kogi State for the first time. He won it in his third attempt having failed in 2003, 2007 and 2011.

Atiku Abubakar on the other hand, is not a stranger to Kogi politics as he was the one who wrestled power from Audu in 2003 through Ibrahim Idris. Audu was governor on the platform of the All Nigeria People’s Party, ANPP from 1999-2003. Audu who was an Igala man defeated the PDP candidate, Steve Oloruntoba from Okun land (Kogi West).

In the 2003 election, PDP learnt their lesson by fielding an Igala man who would do battle with Audu. Atiku was the Vice President of Nigeria at the time but was more involved than President Olusegun Obasanjo in politics of northern states.

He sponsored Ibrahim Idris and the rest is history. Idris handed over power to Idris Wada in 2012. Unlike his predecessor, Wada was not able to carry everyone along. He created a lot of enemies for himself both in and out of his party. Many bigwigs of the PDP dumped the party for the APC.

There was also the problem of workers salary under Wada which evidently weakened the party. In the presidential election, Buhari polled 264,851 votes to beat the incumbent and candidate of PDP Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, who polled 149,987 votes.

The political atmosphere was looking good for APC until the governorship primaries of the party which produced Audu as the candidate for the 2015 election in November.

A national leader of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu had his preferred candidate which was not Audu while Buhari also had his own candidate in the person of Yahaya Bello.

Audu was leading in the main election before he died. Unfortunately for James Abiodun Faleke who was Audu’s running mate, the election was declared inconclusive; therefore he could not be declared governor in waiting.  The APC settled for Bello who came second in the primary election that produced Audu as candidate of the party.

It was very clear that Bello would win because even if they had given the remaining votes to Wada, he would not have won the supplementary election.

Initially, Bello seemed to be level headed when he assumed office. Later, he turned his back on elders of the party. He stopped consulting them on affairs of the state. Before Barrister James Ocholi, former Minister of state for Labour died, Bello was not on speaking terms with him.

He also failed to carry members of Audu’s camp along, considering the fact that he inherited his votes. He also fell out with the chairman of the Kogi state chapter of the APC, Chief Hadi Ametuo. His highhandedness made many prominent members of the ruling party leave for the PDP.

Bello owes workers salaries for more than two years. This has made life very difficult for the average Kogi resident as the major source of income is from the state government.

Another problem being faced by APC in Kogi is the grievance of Audu’s camp. While Audu’s supporters are still members of the APC, it is not certain that they will give their vote to Buhari.

The reason is that, when Audu was running for governor in the last election, Buhari never campaigned for him. He did not attend his flag off. When Audu died, the president did not attend his burial neither did he attend the 8th day prayer which is a norm in Islam.

Also, some supporters of the president from Kogi are not happy that people from the state were not given juicy appointments despite them supporting him in 2015. Ocholi was made a minister of state for Labour. Many felt that was low. After his death, it took the president one year to find a replacement after several protests. Kogi did not have anyone representing the state in Buhari’s cabinet.

To make matters worse, the herdsmen attacks on villages was not properly handled by Buhari. Residents could no longer sleep with their two eyes closed as the ruthless herdsmen were on a killing spree.

Three years ago, they attacked villages in the state, especially Kogi East, the Igala speaking area. The youth of Kogi East under the leadership of their traditional rulers were able to repel the attacks and chase the herdsmen away from the state.

The next stop was Benue, where they (herdsmen) unleashed terror. Benue is very close to Kogi State. Kogi State was carved out of Kwara and Benue States in 1991 by the regime of General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangia. While the attacks were going on in Benue, residents in Kogi were worried given how close the two states are. They came back to Kogi and killed again.

There was a public outcry about the terror of the herdsmen.  While a debate was on about cattle colonies, Bello, in February 2018 hurriedly donated 15,000 hectares of land to the Federal Government to be used as “cattle colony.”  Many saw that move as desperation on the part of the governor to please President Buhari, who is a Fulani man like the most of the herdsmen.

Despite the effort of the governor, people were still massacred in Kogi State. Reacting to the development, Reno Omokri, a former aide to President Goodluck Jonathan said, “Governors who want to know how herdsmen will show their gratitude if given land for cattle colony only have to look at Kogi where Yahaya Bello gave them 15,000 hectares. Last week (now one year ago) they showed gratitude by killing 25 people. Yesterday (March 19, 2018) again they said thank you by killing 10 more.”

The killings came less than one week after the first major massacre in Dekina, Bassa and Omala local government areas of the state took place with more than 25 people killed.

A few weeks later, nine persons, including a traditional ruler, were killed in attacks on Agbenema, Ajichekpa, Opada and Iyade villages, in Omala Local Government of Kogi State.

Several houses were burnt. The Onu of Agbenema, Musa Edibo and his wife were burnt in the palace, with the home of ex-Vice Chairman of Omala council Adofu Stephen, also torched.

Business Hallmark learnt from some of the residents that the attackers hid in bushes around the villages. They came out at night to unleash mayhem. They set house ablaze and slit the throat of anyone escaping the inferno. Luckily for the administrator of Omala, Ibrahim Aboh, he escaped the onslaught.

It was gathered from a reliable source that residents said soldiers deployed to put an end to herdsmen attacks allegedly refused to assist.

One of the residents said: “We were surprised when we approached soldiers at the Guest House at Abejukolo for help. They refused to act professionally and instead used their vehicle to block us from moving to the troubled spot to help our people.

“It is clear that the aim of the Fulani herdsmen is to kill us and take over our ancestral homes. They have razed Ojuwo, Ajomayeigbi, Iyade, Agbenema and Opada villages, so that they could use our land for their colonies.

“We want the world to come to our aid before the Fulani exterminate us and inherit our land. We have lost confidence in the security agencies deployed here. We believe they have been instructed to adopt the ‘siddon look’ approach, while we are massacred.

Many residents feel betrayed by Buhari for the way he handled the situation with laxity.

Enejo Shuaibu, a Kogi youth who resides in Lokoja said, “I don’t think Buhari’s cares about us. He only remembers us when it is time to campaign. Why didn’t he visit victims of herdsmen attack or flood victims. Why now?” he asked.

Alhaji Yakubu Mamuda, a former Kogi East Senatorial aspirant, is of the view that the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku is the favourite to win the state. Speaking in a telephone chat with BusinessHallmark, the PDP chieftain said, “I am sure that Atiku will win Kogi State with nothing less than 60%.

Even in Ebira land where Bello hails from, the people are not happy with him. The Ebira elites want to deal with him on the election day. Many of them don’t have problems with Buhari. But seeing that he is Bello’s backbone, they have to vote him out.

“Anyone who wants to see Bello lose the governorship election towards the end of the year just has to vote against Buhari.”

On the contrary, a member of the APC who does not want his name mentioned is of the view that “Buhari would win Kogi.” When asked about Bello’s chances, he said “I cannot speak for Bello. What I know is that people in Kogi like Buhari and they will vote for him. The outcome might not be like 2015 due to Bello’s performance and the herdsmen problem. But he will win.”

From BusinessHallmark findings, it can be concluded that Atiku is in a pole position to win Kogi state narrowly. However, as the clock ticks, there would be plots and counter plots by the political actors to win the votes of the electorate. Last minute permutations which may turn the tide cannot be ruled out.