‘Tinubunomics’: Lack of economic plan, growth strategy hobble reforms results

Nigeria’s economic debate has once again returned to a familiar question of what the country’s long-term economic strategy is? Nearly three years into President Bola Tinubu’s administration, economists, policy analysts and industry stakeholders are increasingly asking whether the government has a coherent economic framework capable of driving the country toward sustainable growth.

The administration calls its approach the “Renewed Hope Agenda,” a reform programme aimed at stabilizing the economy, attracting investment and expanding domestic production.

But critics argue that beyond sweeping reforms, such as the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira, the government has yet to articulate a clear and structured economic roadmap comparable to those adopted by previous administrations and elsewhere in the globe.

With the next general election less than a year away, the debate over what some have dubbed “Tinubunomics” has intensified, especially as Nigerians grapple with high living costs, fragile economic fundamentals and persistent infrastructure challenges, particularly in the power sector and fuel price.

Growing public frustration

The disconnect between macroeconomic claims and everyday reality has become one of the defining themes of the current economic conversation. Electricity supply remains unstable despite repeated government assurances of reforms in the sector. Tinubu even boasted during campaign the Nigerians shouldn’t vote for him for second term if he does fix power; now the powers sector is worse with a N6 billion debt.

Businesses and households continue to rely heavily on expensive generators, raising production costs and deepening inflationary pressures cost of living.

Tinubu acknowledged the widespread frustration when he spoke late Friday at the 4th Elective National Convention of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Abuja.

“Many of you lamenting the problem of electricity, power, yes we’re paying attention to that,” the president said, while announcing measures aimed at strengthening the national grid.

At the centre of the government’s latest intervention is the Grid Asset Management Company (GAMCO), a newly created entity expected to boost transmission capacity and stabilize electricity supply.

Tinubu said the initiative would inject about 1,500 megawatts into a new transmission corridor, a move he believes will help address some of the structural weaknesses in the power sector. Yet analysts say such measures raise broader questions about the administration’s earlier promises. For instance, the government is spending N4 billion to install solar panel in Aso Rock to remove it for m the grid.

During the 2023 election campaign, Tinubu assured Nigerians that steady power supply would be achieved within four years, even urging voters not to return him to office if he failed to deliver. Nearly four years later, critics argue that the power sector remains one of the weakest pillars of the economy.

For many observers, the continued power crisis illustrates a larger concern about whether the administration has a comprehensive economic blueprint capable of addressing Nigeria’s structural problems.

Shock therapy reforms

From the outset, Tinubu’s presidency has been defined by bold and controversial economic reforms. On his first day in office in May 2023, the president announced the removal of the long-standing petrol subsidy, ending a policy that had cost the government billions of dollars annually. Shortly afterwards, the Central Bank of Nigeria unified the country’s multiple exchange rate windows and allowed the naira to float more freely.

These moves were widely praised by economists, and international agencies, who had long argued that Nigeria’s economic distortions were unsustainable.

However, the immediate consequences were severe. The naira depreciated sharply to almost N2000 against the dollar, petrol prices more than tripled, and inflation surged to levels unseen in decades. Food prices soared across the country, pushing millions of households deeper into poverty.

Government officials and supporters insist that the reforms were necessary to prevent economic collapse and to reposition Nigeria for long-term growth.

Akin Alabi, a member of the House of Representatives and a supporter of the administration, argues that the reforms should be viewed through a long-term macroeconomic lens.

“Microeconomics is what people are more concerned about here. People will not see the results of the macro- economy until it translates to the micro,” Alabi said in an interview with TVC.

“But we find ourselves in this mess because of the terrible macroeconomic situation we have had over the years.

“The interesting thing is that policies Tinubu is implementing are policies all the other candidates said they were going to implement in 2023. They all said they were going to remove fuel subsidy. They all said they were going to float the naira. They all said Nigeria should have a free market economy.”

According to Alabi, the painful adjustments currently experienced by Nigerians are the inevitable consequence of correcting years of economic mismanagement.

“It is like changing the entire engine room,” he said. “There’s going to be some difficulties at the beginning, but those that understand economics can already see the results.

“They can see that inflation figures have decreased. They can see that the Central Bank has cut interest rates. They can see that our external reserves is at all-time high.

“There’s no doubt that the president has laid a solid foundation that we all will be better off with at the end of the day.”

No Economic Roadmap

Despite these arguments, critics say the government’s reforms have not been anchored on a clearly articulated economic philosophy. For them, “Tinubunomics” remains more of a political slogan than a structured policy doctrine.

A senior economist, who spoke to Business Hallmark on condition of anonymity, expressed skepticism about the existence of a comprehensive economic plan.

“I am not sure they have any plan that is worth analysing,” he said. “I have not read such a plan. When I compare what this administration should be doing with what they are actually doing, I feel so disappointed.”

According to him, some of the positive economic indicators frequently cited by the government may not reflect the true state of the economy.

“Yes, they have tweaked the criteria for assessment and have managed to make the numbers look good, but there is a wide gap between what the numbers are saying and what the reality is saying,” he noted. “They are working to a predetermined end. The GDP has been rebased and the growth numbers we’re seeing are misleading.

“Unemployment is still around four percent according to official statistics, but how can anyone accept that? So the numbers look good on paper, but the reality is different.”

Nonetheless, the economist acknowledged that certain policy actions have produced positive outcomes. “I have to say that I am a bit impressed with what the Central Bank has done,” he added. “They have managed to stabilize the exchange rate, for example, which is a huge positive. Stability is very important.”

What exactly is Tinubunomics?

The Tinubu administration describes its economic agenda as a broad strategy aimed at transforming Nigeria into a $1 trillion economy within five years. The blueprint emphasizes industrialization, infrastructure development and increased domestic production.

Key elements of the programme include the Nigeria Industrial Policy 2025 – 2035, which aims to achieve annual industrial growth of about 25 percent and shift the economy from consumption toward production. The administration is also pursuing tax reforms designed to broaden the tax base while reducing multiple taxation across states.

Other initiatives include the Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme, which aims to stimulate grassroots economic activity by empowering, at least, 1,000 individuals in each of Nigeria’s 8,809 wards.

The government says the programme could bring about 10 million Nigerians into productive economic activity through agriculture, mining, trade and small-scale manufacturing.

Energy reform is another major pillar of the strategy.

Energy Reform

Through initiatives, such as the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas Initiative (PCNGI), the government hopes to transition vehicles to cleaner energy sources while reducing fuel costs.

Officials also point to the development of the Blue Economy, which seeks to harness Nigeria’s marine resources for economic growth through aquaculture, maritime logistics and port modernisation.

The Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning argues that these policies collectively form the backbone of the Renewed Hope Agenda. Yet critics are not convinced.

They argue that unlike countries, such as China, where economic development is driven by carefully sequenced long-term plans, Nigeria’s current policy direction appears fragmented.

Concerns about policy priorities

Another recurring criticism relates to the perceived alignment between government policy and private interests. Some critics have argued that the administration’s economic decisions appear to favour certain business elites.

Financial analyst, Kalu Aja, recently stirred debate with a pointed comment on social media regarding the government’s approach to strategic investments.

“If the current Oga (Tinubu) did NLNG, it will be 49 percent owned by Ndi Lebanon, 51 percent owned by Ndi Malta,” he wrote. “Thank God for Abacha, who invested in the name of the Federation of Nigeria.”

Although the comment was largely rhetorical, it reflects a broader concern among critics that strategic national assets may increasingly fall under private control.

At the same time, Aja acknowledged that the administration appears committed to certain structural reforms, particularly fiscal federalism.

“Tinubu is pursuing fiscal federalism and devolution of powers,” he said. “Nigeria is too diverse to move at the same pace. Decouple the federation bureaucracy with innovation and enhance the entrepreneurial spirit across the 774 local governments.”

Such views highlight the complex and sometimes contradictory perceptions surrounding the administration’s economic policies.

Learning From The Past

Nigeria’s economic trajectory over the past two decades provides important context for the current debate. Each administration has introduced its own economic framework aimed at tackling the country’s structural challenges.

Under President Olusegun Obasanjo, the government adopted the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) between 2003 and 2007. The programme focused on macroeconomic stability, public sector reform and private-sector-led growth.

It was during this period that Nigeria secured an $18 billion debt relief deal from the Paris Club, dramatically wiping off the country’s external debt burden. The administration also created the Excess Crude Account, a fiscal buffer designed to save surplus oil revenues for difficult times.

By the time Obasanjo left office in 2007, Nigeria’s foreign reserves had risen from about $3.7 billion in 1999 to more than $45 billion, while the telecommunications sector had undergone a dramatic transformation following deregulation.

The Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and Goodluck Jonathan administrations built on some of these reforms through the Transformation Agenda, which emphasised economic diversification, agricultural reform and infrastructure development.

One of the most notable achievements during Jonathan’s tenure was the 2014 GDP rebasing exercise, which briefly made Nigeria the largest economy in Africa.

From Market To State

However, the momentum slowed significantly during the Muhammadu Buhari administration, which adopted a more state-driven economic approach.

Buhari’s government introduced several policy frameworks, including the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) and the National Development Plan (NDP), while investing heavily in infrastructure projects, such as railways and highways.

Yet the period was also marked by two economic recessions, persistent foreign exchange shortages and sluggish growth.

For many economists, the mixed results of Buhari’s policies underline the difficulty of managing Africa’s largest economy amid volatile oil revenues and structural weaknesses.

For many analysts, the transition from the Buhari years to the Tinubu administration raised expectations that Nigeria would move toward a more market-driven economic framework capable of unlocking private sector growth.

Tinubu himself has often emphasized his belief in market economics, a philosophy shaped partly by his experience as governor of Lagos State between 1999 and 2007, where aggressive tax reforms and public-private partnerships significantly expanded the state’s revenue base.

But translating that philosophy to the national level has proven far more complex. While the administration has pursued liberalizing reforms, such as subsidy removal and exchange rate unification, critics argue that these steps have not yet been matched by a comprehensive development strategy capable of driving large-scale industrialization and job creation.

Government officials insist that such a strategy exists.

The $1 Trillion Economy

Central to the administration’s economic outlook is a broader vision of transforming Nigeria into a $1 trillion economy, a goal repeatedly referenced by policymakers and supported by the Central Bank’s long-term projections.

Officials say achieving that target will depend on accelerating industrial growth, boosting oil and gas production, expanding non-oil exports, curbing insecurity and strengthening domestic manufacturing.

The government has also launched several initiatives aimed at stabilizing the economy in the short term.

In 2024, Tinubu unveiled a N2 trillion economic stabilization plan, designed to support manufacturing, expand credit to small businesses and cushion the impact of economic reforms.

The plan formed part of a broader strategy coordinated through the Presidential Economic Coordination Council (PECC), which includes prominent private sector leaders, such as Aliko Dangote, Tony Elumelu and economist Bismarck Rewane.

At the inauguration of the council, the president acknowledged the scale of the economic challenges facing the country.

“We have a challenge thrown at us and all of us will have to be careful,” Tinubu said.

“I believe so much in the organized private sector. The partnership to drive the economy of this country, for reforms and stabilization that is necessary, give the incentive where we must and leave the market to control the pricing mechanism.”

The administration has also highlighted signs of macroeconomic improvement.

According to government data, Nigeria recorded consistent quarterly GDP growth through 2025, while foreign reserves climbed to about $45.4 billion by the end of the year.

Officials also point to declining inflation and improved investor sentiment as evidence that the reform program is beginning to yield results.

Self Evaluation Report

In his 2026 New Year address, Tinubu said the country had entered a new phase of economic recovery.

“Despite persistent global economic headwinds, we recorded tangible and measurable gains, particularly in the economy,” the president said.

However, the debate over Tinubunomics is unlikely to fade soon.

While macroeconomic indicators may be improving gradually, many Nigerians say the benefits have yet to translate into meaningful relief in everyday life.

Food prices remain high, purchasing power has declined and businesses continue to struggle with high energy costs and limited access to credit.

Some analysts also question the realism of the administration’s ambitious economic targets.

Nigeria’s GDP currently stands well below the trillion-dollar mark, and achieving such rapid expansion within five years would require sustained growth levels far above the country’s historical average.

The challenge, economists say, is not merely about policy announcements but about consistent implementation.

Over the years, Nigeria has produced numerous economic blueprints – from NEEDS under Obasanjo to the Transformation Agenda under Jonathan and the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan under Buhari.

Yet many of these frameworks struggled to achieve their full potential due to policy inconsistency, institutional weaknesses and political pressures.

Observers say Tinubu’s own economic strategy, less coherent, is unlikely to avoid similar pitfalls. The administration faces a narrowing window to demonstrate tangible progress before the next electoral cycle begins in earnest.