Politics
SDP: New bride of Nigerian politics provides opposition alternative platform
Last week, Mallam Nasir el Rufai, the former governor of Kaduna state, finally defected to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) after weeks of speculations and denials, citing the derailment of the party from its original ideal.
The former governor, a founding member of the All Progressives Congress (APC, played a major role in the emergence of President Bola Tinubu as party flag bearer and his eventual victory.
Authoritative sources hinted that other key opposition figures, including Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party (LP) candidate Peter Obi, are said to be mulling the idea of joining SDP to form a mega party and present a formidable front against the ruling party and President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 election.
Many of Buhari’s officials and aides are reportedly considering moving out of APC to join the SDP, following the example laid by Nasir el-Rufai.
Apart from el-Rufai, other prominent figures, sources revealed, are planning to move to SDP as the new bride includes former vice president Yemi Osinbajo and former Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice under the Buhari administration, Abubakar Malami.
It was learnt that Pastor Tunde Bakare, who contested and lost to President Bola Tinubu in the APC presidential primary election, is among those said to be mulling over the idea of moving to SDP.
“Atiku, Peter Obi, Abubakar Malami, Pastor Tunde Bakare, and Prof. Yemi Osinbajo are all planning to join SDP in the coming days,” one of the sources disclosed. “Most of Buhari’s regime remnants are heading to SDP.”
Others being mentioned as possible defectors include APC chairman Senator Abdullahi Adamu, a former governor of Nasarawa state, and Senator Ahmed Lawan, a former Senate president, who was tapped by Adamu and former president Buhari to succeed him. El Rufai had also held a meeting with Adamu shortly before decamping.
El-Rufai is said to have instructed his political allies and supporters to move to his new party.
Recall that the former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) had referenced a widening chasm between his personal values and the APC’s current trajectory, which he noted was not in line with his values as the major rationale behind his departure.
Last Monday, el-Rufai’s son, Bashir, dropped a hint that Peter Obi would join the SDP, following his father’s defection from the ruling APC.
Bashir made the revelation while responding to a post on X (formerly Twitter) by a user, @Freedom42602077, who argued that the SDP would struggle to defeat the APC in the 2027 elections unless it aligned with Peter Obi.
“Bro to bro, if Peter Obi is not in that party, they can’t win presidential. APC will have it again!” the user wrote.
Reacting, Bashir El-Rufai simply replied: “He is coming.”
The abstruse response has since ignited wild speculations about ongoing political realignments ahead of the 2027 general elections, with many questioning whether Obi is indeed considering a move to the SDP.
Despite repeatedly raising concerns about the party’s decline both privately and publicly, El-Rufai said his warnings were not given attention.
“On my part, I have raised concerns in private and, more recently, in public regarding the capricious trajectory of the party. Therefore, at this point in my political journey, I have come to the conclusion that I must seek another political platform for the pursuit of the progressive values I cherish,” he said.
Recalling how he played a key role in securing electoral victories for the APC in 2015, 2019, and 2023, El Rufai expressed disappointment at how the party has been run in recent years.
“I, therefore, call on all our supporters and other persons concerned about our country’s future to join us in the SDP in the journey towards making Nigeria flourish as a beacon of pride for Africans and the Black Race,” he said.
Meanwhile, Adewole Adebayo, the SDP presidential candidate in the 2023 elections, was full of praise for el-Rufai, whom he described in glowing terms as an asset with a strong record of public service.
When he made an appearance on The Morning Brief, a breakfast programme on Channels Television, last Tuesday, Adebayo highlighted el-Rufai’s strong points, asserting that he also has some weaknesses to address.
“The issue is that I see him as an asset, as a hard-working person, and he has a verifiable and measurable track record of public performance. What I believe is that he has his weaknesses which he needs to work on, but I am not his mentor or therapist,” he said.
Prof. Bade Anjorin, a sociologist, told Business Hallmark that “SDP is the new kid on the block, there is one thing I have seen the chemistry between Gabam, the chairman of the party, and it’s presidential candidate, Adewole Adebayo.
They are always seen together, working assiduously to build the party, criss-crossing the country. Their efforts are paying off, it’s the only party without any baggage, no issue. While I do not see it winning the 2027 election because of the power of incumbency and the challenge and quarrel that may likely arise over who is to take the party flag, nevertheless, it’s going to upset the apple cart for APC.
Dr. Ariyo Adekunle Ojo, a political scientist, agreed with Anjorin but added a caveat, that if they could agree on who will “fly the party flag, the election may be a stalemate. The people planning to move to the party now are heavyweights such as Atiku and others.
Nigerians expect realignments, permutations, and new alliances in the coming weeks to gather more steam just less than two years before the 2027 presidential elections.
Ojo noted that the political atmosphere is already heating up and “politicians are already engaged in their usual business of permutations. There is a lot of alignment, realignment, concessions, defections, and alliances going on behind the political scene.
2027 Outlook
Analysts, who understand the dynamic of northern politics are of the view that it would be very difficult for President Tinubu to receive from the north in 2027 the kind of massive support he got from there in 2023. If that happens to hold any water, then it would be a long night for the ruling party in 2027.
Coming into this dangerous mix is the unease in Tinubu’s home base and backyards – Lagos. The leadership dispute in the Lagos State House of Assembly has largely polarized members of the Governance Advisory Council (GAC), the highest unofficial decision making body in the state. The removal of the Speaker, Mudashiru Obasa, on January 13, 2025 and the election of Mojisola Meranda as replacement threw the House into maelstrom of crisis. After several meetings with the president, the GAC members and the state lawmakers, Meranda was forced to resign, making way for Obasa’s come-back.
As it stands today in Lagos, analysts are of the view that the peace that exists is that of graveyards and ephemeral as 36 out of 40 members of the Assembly, who earlier removed Obasa from office are still insisting that he should voluntarily resign to make way for an entirely new person to lead the House. Though last week Tinubu summoned them to Aso Rock and resolved it, competent sources hinted that Tinubu’s resolution of the crisis was ‘ a diktat ‘ rammed through their throats.
It is believed that if not properly handled, the implosion in the ruling party may likely start from the president’s home state.
Bride for All
That’s why some analysts have appraised the advantages the SDP has as the new bride embracing discontents from other parties, some of them heavy weights, putting it in good stead to gain from the crises the other parties.
Even President Tinubu, before the 2023 APC primaries, was said to be considering moving to SDP in the event that he was denied the APC ticket.
The party appears to be the only pronounced national party devoid of rancour, bickering, and defection at the moment. It is not surprising, therefore, that some members of the two largest parties, APC and PDP, have turned the party as a second address.
The triumvirate of SDP’s Secretary, Olu Agunloye; Chairman, Gabam; and particularly its presidential candidate in the 2023 general election, Adewole Adebayo, have been holding the party tight to the admiration of its members and the larger audience in the society. For the past two years, the party appears to have been intact, building bridges across the six geopolitical zones of the country, penetrating slowly, though, into the nooks and crannies of the country.
Gabam and his presidential candidate have become somewhat inseparable such that they are together at functions and where they are at different places, their minds and utterances are usually the same.
And the projection has been consistent with its core message or philosophy of justice for everybody, particularly its amplified message of Chapter 2 of its constitution, which refers to getting a candidate that has character, competence, and capacity, irrespective of the region, tribe, or religion. The cohesion within its fold is something that baffles many observers.
Its showings in state elections so far have been quite impressive. Its candidate in the Ekiti State governorship election, Chief Segun Oni, came a close second to the eventual winner, Biodun Oyebanji.
It was also impressive in the Kogi State governorship election, against all odds, where Murtala Ajaka beat the established PDP to the second position. Currently, it has about four members in the National Assembly, one in the Senate, and three in the lower chamber. Close watchers of political development are predicting that the party could spring surprises in 2027.
“It has no baggage among its members, unlike other parties, its prospects for 2027 is very bright,” a public affairs commentator and lawyer, C.I Nnamani said.
