Obasanjo: Roar of the old warhorse

Obasanjo and Buhari                                 Picture Credit: Vanguard

By YUSUF MOHAMMED

Last week, a former president of Nigeria, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo wrote a damning statement against the Buhari-led administration which sent shock-waves across the country. This is not the first time he would write against this administration as he did that last year. He also wrote against President Goodluck Jonathan in the past. Many people are asking: what impact do Obasanjo’s statements make?

Since the restoration of democratic rule in 1999, Obasanjo’s influence in Nigerian politics cannot be underestimated; neither can it be over emphasized.

He is also respected by the international community. As a United Nations Ambassador, he has been called upon to solve political crisis in some African countries. Obasanjo’s reputation grew on October 1, 1979 when he handed over power to Shehu Shagari, a democratically elected civilian president, hence becoming the first military head of state to transfer power peacefully to a civilian regime in Nigeria. He earned the respect of true democrats all over the world.

He became a democratically elected president in 1999 on the platform of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP. The former President has had a say on who leads Nigeria since he left office on May 29, 2007. He supported the late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua against General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida and his deputy, Atiku Abubakar for the presidential ticket of the PDP.

Yar’Adua emerged as candidate of the party and eventually won the general election and was sworn in as the second democratically elected president of Nigeria in the fourth republic.

Yar’Adua who many described as someone who “had good plans for the country” had health challenges which led to his death. He died after two years in office. In 2009, Acting President, Goodluck Jonathan was sworn in as President of Nigeria to replace the late Yar’Adua. That did not go down well with the northerners who felt it was their turn after Obasanjo from the South had governed for eight years.

Months leading to the 2011 election were laden with tension as the northern hierarchy of the PDP urged Jonathan to obey the “gentleman agreement of the party” which zoned power to the North for eight years. They urged Jonathan not to contest in 2011.

Babangida and Atiku saw the zoning principle as an opportunity for them. While the northerners were scheming, Obasanjo in his usual fashion endorsed Jonathan not minding whose ox was gored. He stormed into Aso Rock and said “You must run Jonathan.”

Obasanjo’s endorsement meant that the northerners had to devise a means to defeat Jonathan at the primaries. As a result, the idea of “a consensus candidate” was borne.

In that regard, Atiku outsmarted Babangida by getting the northern leaders to endorse him as the consensus candidate from the North to contest against Jonathan in the primary election. Upon hearing the news, Obasanjo reacted when asked by journalists how he felt about Atiku’s endorsement. He simply said in Pidgin English, “I dey laugh o.”

The rest is history. Jonathan defeated Atiku hands down  at the primaries and with Obasanjo’s support, went ahead to defeat the Congress for Progress Change, CPC candidate, General Buhari and All Nigerians Peoples Party, ANPP candidate, Ibrahim Shekarau to emerge president.

Obasanjo’s letter to Buhari last year was not the first he would write to a president. In December 2013, he wrote an 18 page letter to President Goodluck Jonathan lashing him for his leadership style. That letter emboldened members of the APC.

Two years later, he tore his PDP membership card in public, denouncing his association with the party. He came out openly to endorse Buhari when INEC postponed the election from February 14 to March 28.

He saw that Jonathan’s body language was that of someone who wanted to cling to power by any means necessary. He warned him about the consequences of that by saying, “I sincerely hope that the president is not going for broke and saying ‘look damn it, it’s either I have it or nobody has it’. I hope that we will not have a coup… I hope we can avoid it.” He also reminded him of what happened in the Ivory Coast when Laurent Gbagbo lost and refused to hand over power to Alassane Outtarra.

That signaled the end of Jonathan’s political journey. He was defeated in March and handed over power to Buhari on May 29, 2015.

The sheriff in town rode to power on the mantra of ‘change.’ Most Nigerians took the promises of the APC to heart. Some even shed tears of joy whenever Buhari made speeches ahead of the election. On the day of his inauguration, he made his famous statement of “I belong to everybody and I belong to nobody.” His supporters and detractors alike saw Buhari as a born again democrat with that statement and were ready to give him another chance. Political analysts warned that failure to adhere to that famous statement could make him infamous in no time.

Barely three months after that historical day, Buhari said the exact opposite of what he said on his inauguration. At the US Institute of Peace, while speaking with Dr. Pauline Baker, he said, “I hope you have a copy of the election results. The constituents, for example that gave me 97% of vote cannot in all honesty be treated on some issues with constituencies that gave me 5%.”

While some must have seen it as “a storm in a teacup,” most people saw it as a ‘Tsunami’ that could consume the administration if he walks the talk in that regard. Fast forward to three years later, the President has been accused of matching his words with action. They say he has ignored the federal character principle by appointing more people of his ethnic group into notable positions.

Obasanjo in his interview with BBC Yoruba last week made mention of Buhari’s appointments. He accused the president of nepotistic practices and therefore, does not deserve his vote. He said, “Look at what’s happening, the person that’s leading us says he can’t appoint any other tribes into sensitive positions because he can’t trust them. If he can’t trust my tribe but wants our votes, how then does he want me to trust him?”

The clashes of herdsmen and farmers in the past snowballed into invasions of villages in the Middle Belt region. Many accused the President of not being proactive and also taking sides with the Fulani herdsmen.

Nigerians also accused the President of not fighting an all encompassing battle against corruption. They claim he is targeting only members of the opposition party. That led Senator Shehu Sani of the APC to say “when it comes to fighting corruption in the National Assembly and the Judiciary and in the larger Nigerian sectors, the President uses insecticide, but when it comes to fighting corruption within the Presidency, they use deodorants.”

It would be recalled that the former president form Ogun State was one of the earliest visitors at Aso Rock when Buhari assumed office. He was also a frequent visitor. All of a sudden the visits stopped. He had been quiet on matters relating to the President until when he dropped a bombshell via his letter in June 2018.

Obasanjo in his letter advised the President not to seek re-election in 2019. Part of it reads: “The lice of poor performance in government, poverty, insecurity, poor economic management, nepotism, gross dereliction of duty, condonation of misdeed, if not outright encouragement of it, lack of progress and hope for the future, lack of national cohesion and poor management of internal political dynamics and widening inequality – are very much with us today,”

“With such lice of general and specific poor performance and crying poverty with us, our fingers will not be dry of ‘blood’,” he added.

A meeting was called on the same day at Aso Rock by President Buhari which party leaders attended. After the meeting APC national leader, Chief Bola Ahmed Tinubu denied that the meeting had anything to do with the former President’s letter.

Business Hallmark gathered from a reliable source that the letter made not just the President but the entire members of the APC uncomfortable. They treaded carefully so they did not respond immediately to the letter.

They discussed the letter and brainstormed on how to reply the former president. The Presidency replied him and barely two days after, former Secretary General of the Federation; Babachir Lawal was arrested by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC.

Many saw the arrest as an effect of the letter to the President. Senator Ben Murray Bruce said “All of a sudden Babachir lawal is detained. Maybe other former Presidents should also write letters. Then maybe all of a sudden we will deal with herdsmen killings and other issues.”

A member of the APC who pleaded for anonymity spoke with Business Hallmark in a telephone chat. He said, “Baba (Obasnajo) has said what is in the hearts and mind almost every Nigerian. There is really nothing special about all he stated in his letter. It is just that coming from him it means a lot. It has rattled the Presidency to be honest.”

“What he said not only affects Buhari but also affects the party as a whole. If we don’t take drastic measures, I am afraid that we will lose woefully in 2019. All hope is not lost. We need to re-strategize and look for a suitable Presidential candidate.”

Last week, January 20, Obasanjo struck again. He issued a statement accusing the Buhari-led administration of plotting to rig the forthcoming elections.

“Democracy becomes a sham if elections are carried out by people who should be impartial and neutral umpires, but who show no integrity, acting with blatant partiality, duplicity and imbecility. For all democrats and those carrying out the process of elections, there must be the redline that must not be crossed in tactics and practices of democracy.”

“The transmission and collation of results are subject to interference, manipulation and meddling. If the INEC’s favourite political party wins with all the above infractions, the result will be conclusively declared and if not, there will be a ‘rerun’, the result of which is known before it is carried out. I know that I am not alone in being sceptical about the integrity of INEC and its ability to act creditably and above board. But we are open to be convinced otherwise.”

He also lambasted Vice President Yemi Osinbajo for going about sharing money to traders.

The former president continued, “The other day, the Vice-President of Nigeria, Professor Yemi Osinbajo – a learned man, an enlightened person in all parameters – was seen at various markets in Lagos State and Abuja distributing N10,000 each to market women. What an absurdity! It was indeed an obscene display of executive recklessness and abuse of office. Pray, where did the money come from? Was it budgeted for in the appropriation law? In more civilised nations, Osinbajo would have been impeached and prosecuted for gutting our collective treasury.

“What an act by a Senior Advocate of Nigeria lawyer, number 2 man in the Executive hierarchy; and what is more, a pastor of one of the Christian movements led by a revered, respected and upright church leader, Pastor EA Adeboye. Osinbajo must have gone for, “if you can’t beat them, join them”. A great pity indeed and which makes people ask the questions, “Any hope?” Yes, for me, there is hope. Osinbajo has shown the human weakness and proved the saying that the corruption of the best is the worst form of corruption. His explanation that it was their government programme can only be construed to be very shallow and lopsided, if not an outrightly idiotic programme.

What followed was mixed reactions. The APC replied Obasanjo saying “he is being haunted by his past.” While a national leader of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu accused him of being “an election rigger without peer.”

However, the damage has been done. Ordinary Nigerians read meaning into Obasanjo’s statement.

The Newspaper stands all over the country were crowded because Obasanjo statement made the headline. A social commentator said, “Do not ignore the message because of the messenger. Obasanjo may not be a saint but he speaks the truth. All what he mentioned in that statement is what any sane Nigerian knows.”

Obasanjo is openly supporting the presidential candidate of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar and is openly against President Muhammadu Buhari the APC candidate. He has been on the winning side since 1999 in terms of the presidential election. Time will tell if 2019 would go his way.