FG’s economic growth story faces public scrutiny

   …as Zack Adedeji’s manipulation of facts shows deeper troubles 

By AYOOLA OLAOLUWA 

Mr. Zack Adedeji, Executive chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service’s statistical attempt to change the situation with the government economic policy performance indicates deeper troubling disposition of the President Bola Tinubu administration to peddle any story to deceive gullible Nigeria. At a recent presentation of the country’s economic outlook, it was all praises for government that is borrowing so heavily to fund its budget with suffering at and unprecedented level.

Mounting hardship in the land is increasingly challenging the Federal Government’s economic growth narrative, as key indicators at the household level continue to deteriorate despite claims of macroeconomic progress, Business Hallmark can report.

While recent data from government and rating agencies may point to modest improvements in output and fiscal positioning, the gains have yet to translate into tangible relief for hard-hit citizens.

Across major Nigerian cities and rural communities alike, many households are facing persistent inflationary pressures, including higher food prices, rising utility bills, elevated transport costs, and shrinking disposable income, which have combined to weaken consumer spending.

These inflationary pressures and weakened consumer spending are also taking toll on small businesses, who are  battling reduced patronage and higher operating costs, underscoring the challenges of translating policy into real economic relief.

It would be recalled that top officials of the President Bola Tinubu-led All Progressives Congress (APC) administration have been trumpeting the progress and improved economic fundamentals brought about by the regime’s reforms.

The Familiar Tale

Speaking recently at the commissioning of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) headquarters in Abuja, the Executive Chairman of the service, Zacch Adedeji, said Nigeria was at a critical economic turning point before the reforms, with rising inflation, fiscal imbalances and structural distortions threatening stability.

According to Adedeji, who’s one of the leading proponents and trumpeters of the positive impacts of President Tinubu’s economic policies, the reforms have helped to stabilise prices and restore macroeconomic balance.

Adedeji argued that inflation in Nigeria could have risen as high as 120 per cent without the sweeping economic reforms introduced by the Federal Government.

“If you’ve not taken that decision, Mr. President,  inflation will have been 75 to 120 per cent. Today, inflation is around 15 per cent and declining.

“When this administration assumed office, Nigeria faced a critical inflexion point, marked by constrained fiscal space, weakened investor confidence and structural distortions across key sectors”, the NRS chairman told the president, who was physically present at the commissioning ceremony.

While identifying three key reforms—fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and the naira-for-crude initiative—as central to reversing the country’s economic trajectory, Adedeji maintained that the policy shift was a comprehensive reset of the nation’s economic framework, driven by difficult but necessary decisions.

The revenue service boss insisted that retaining fuel subsidy would have distorted public finances.

“With the price of crude oil in the International oil market presently hovering at $120, N52 trillion out of N68 trillion would have gone to fuel subsidy. That would have been 76 per cent of our total spending”.

Speaking further on the impacts of the reforms on the foreign exchange market, the NRS boss said the unification of rates eliminated distortions, which fuelled inflationary pressures and arbitrage in the past.

The reforms, he said, had helped to stabilise the exchange rate, improve investor confidence, and reduce inflationary pressures.

Adedeji added that the reforms had strengthened Nigeria’s external position, with net reserves rising significantly compared to pre-reform levels.

“If you’ve not taken that decision, our net reserves would have been below $2 billion. Today, they are about $34 billion”, he added.

Highlighting improvements in fiscal performance, Adedeji said that domestic revenue had risen sharply in recent years due to tax reforms and improved compliance. According to him, revenue collections increased from about N6.8 trillion in 2020 to N28.7 trillion in 2025.

Also speaking at the event, President Bola Tinubu said early outcomes from his administration’s reforms were already visible, citing improvements in fiscal stability, external reserves, and investor confidence.

“We are witnessing improved fiscal stability, stronger foreign reserves, a more efficient trade ecosystem, and increased investor confidence in Nigeria’s economic direction”, the president had said.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of Economy, Dr. Taiwo Oyedele, said ongoing fiscal reforms had started to reposition Nigeria’s revenue system for long-term sustainability and growth.

“Before the reforms of this administration, Nigeria’s fiscal system faced structural challenges. Today, we are witnessing a different trajectory through decisive leadership”, the minister explained.

Two sides of A Coin

In the same vein, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, highlighted Nigeria’s resilience amid global economic uncertainties, crediting structural reforms in key sectors, such as fiscal management, energy, and trade for supporting the growth momentum.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s economy is set to expand further by 4.1% in 2026,  faster than eight advanced economies, including the United States (US) with a growth rate of 2.1 percent, Canada (1.9 percent), Spain (1.8 percent), United Kingdom (UK) (1.3 percent), Germany (1.2 percent), France (0.9 percent), Japan (0.6 percent) and Italy (0.5 percent).

Growth is further forecast at 4.3% in 2027, positioning Nigeria among the strongest performers in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the regional average is also 4.3% for 2026.

However, despite all the positive projections and attestation to the positive impacts of President Tinubu’s policies by  government functionaries and rating agencies, Business Hallmark’s findings revealed a  wide gap between headline growth figures and real economic impacts on the citizens.

In March 2026, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate increased to 15.38 percent — up from the 15.06 percent in February, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The increase is the first in 12 months since the inflation rate started declining in April 2025.

On a month-on-month basis,  headline inflation rate in March 2026 was 4.18%, 2.17% higher than the rate recorded in February 2026 (2.01%).

In the same vein, food inflation rate in March 2026 was 14.31 percent on a year-on-year basis, while the rate is lower compared to the 25.22 percent recorded in the same month of March 2025.

The bureau attributed the change in rate to the change in the average prices of Yam, Ginger (Fresh), Cassava Tuber, Groundnuts (Shelled), Irish Potatoes, Avenger (Ogbono/Apon) – Dried Ungrinded, Tomatoes (fresh) and Cassava Flour sold loose.

The bureau said food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Bayelsa (33.35 percent), Sokoto (28.02 percent), and Adamawa (21.67 percent), while Kano (4.29 percent), Oyo (4.86 percent), and Katsina (7.48 percent) recorded the slowest rise.

On a month-on-month basis, NBS said food inflation was highest in Sokoto (11.78 percent), Niger (8.59 percent), and Gombe (8.10 percent).

Meanwhile, Katsina (0.09 percent), Ogun (0.77 percent), and Adamawa (1.30 percent) recorded a decline in food inflation.

The NBS report suggests that majority of Nigerians are still battling inflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, BH checks revealed that prices of foodstuffs have remained stable in the country in the last few months, compared to other basic daily needs and services like electricity, cooking gas, transportation, tuition, accommodation and others.

Growth In Hardship

According to a survey conducted across selected Nigerian cities, though stable, prices of food items are still on the high side and are largely unaffordable for many Nigerians.

For instance, a 50kg bag of rice currently sells from N52,000 to N63,000, depending on the brand and quality. This will gulp  75% 90% of most workers’ minimum wage of N70,000. On the other hand, a Derrica measurement of the product goes for between N700 to N900.

In the same vein, a Derrica measurement of Oloyin (sweat), White and Olo beans sells for between N700 and N1,000. A 500g spaghetti goes for between N730 to N1,000, depending on the brand and market.

Meanwhile, the price of a derica (1-litre) of garri remains low at between N700 to N1,000, depending on the brand.

The latest SBM Intelligence Jollof Index, titled ‘From Hormuz To The Pot’, said it now cost N30,435 on the average to cook a pot of Jollof rice for a family of five in Nigeria, from N25,486 between October 2025 and March 2026.

According to the SBM, the surge in jollof costs varies sharply across states, reflecting differences in logistics, infrastructure, and exposure to supply shocks.

The Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja remains the most expensive location, with a pot of   jollof in Wuse II rising to N36,750 in March.

Lagos on the other hand, recorded the sharpest monthly increase, with prices jumping by over 23 percent in March alone, while Port Harcourt in the South-South, saw the steepest six-month increase at 55.1percent to N31,650.

In Kano (North West), cooking a pot of jollof rice cost N29,670, about 53.8 percent rise, while the same pot of jollof rice for five people crashed to N24,250 in Awka and Onitsha in the Southeastern part of the country.

However, BH survey indicates a relatively lower cost layout. For instance, it will take about N15,000 at the highest to cook a pot of jollof rice in Lagos for five people.

The estimate is reached based on the current prices of materials and ingredients needed to prepare the popular delicacy.

The most expensive ingredient on the list is meat, which cost between N4,900 to N7,000, depending on the variant of meat.

For instance, a kilogram of chicken goes for N4,900 to N6,500, depending on the market and location, while a kilogram of beef (cattle) goes for N6,000 to N7,000 in the state. A bottle of cooking oil goes for N2,000 on average; 2kg parboiled rice (equivalent of 3 Derricas) at N3,000 and other ingredients (bayleaf, seasoning cubes, curry, thyme, salt, magarine and the LPG to cook it) totalling N3,000.

Like foodstuffs, price of cooking gas is also still high in Nigerian cities and towns, forcing citizens to cut down on quantity purchased.

Economy is Life

Checks by our correspondent revealed that a kilogram of LPG currently sells for N1,250 to N1,300 in gas stations, while neighbourhood retailers sell to buyers between N1,400 to N1,600.

Also, prices of petrol, diesel and kerosene have gone up in filling stations across the country as the Middle East crisis, which broke out on February 28 enters its third month.

Most filling stations in Lagos and South West states now sell a litre of petrol above N1,300, with prices ranging from N1,310 to N1,350.

In other parts of the country, a litre of petrol sell from N1,350 to N1,400

Dangote refinery, it would be recalled, recently raised its petrol loading price from N1,200 per litre to N1,275 per litre, while coastal supply prices climbed to N1,215 per litre.

As a result, transport fares, both inter-state and intra-state, have shot up by about 25 percent to 40 percent.

In Lagos for instance, bus owners now charge N600 – N700 for Agege/Pen Cinema to Berger trip instead of the usual N300 to N400 per fare.

Trips outside the state are also high. Lagos to Ilorin by bus now cost N11,000 to N15,000, while the same trip using cars (mostly Siennas) currently cost N16,000 to N20,000.

These increases in the costs of goods and services have combined to weaken consumers spending.

Some experts who spoke on the high cost of living raised questions about the depth and inclusiveness of the Federal Government’s well celebrated economic recovery.

According to the stakeholders,  restoring confidence will depend on targeted interventions aimed at stabilizing prices, boosting productivity, and ensuring that growth is both broad-based and sustainable.

“Yes, the economy is growing, as all measuring indices currently point to. But you can’t explain this to millions of households who are squeezed daily by surging living costs and weak purchasing power.

“For these people, the news or promise of economic recovery remains distant. Daily survival takes precedence over any perceived macroeconomic gains as the reality on ground tells a different story.

“So, focus must shift from headline growth to policies that directly impact livelihoods. If not urgently addressed, sustained hardship can overshadow broader economic gains”, said Dr. Peju Beckley, an economist based in Legos.

Another economic analyst, Oluwole Coker, warned that unless urgent measures are taken to ease the cost-of-living crisis, the disconnect between policy projections and lived reality will further erode public confidence in the government’s economic direction.