President Buhari, watch your back

The current crisis rocking the governing All Progressives  Congress (APC) is yet to be fully understood by President  Buhari as a crisis woven around his likely second term bid by those who are claiming to be fighting for the independence of the National Assembly in the current administration whereas they are jostling for 2019 Presidential race.

The lingering crisis over National Assembly leadership  which to me was targeted at truncating any move by the President and his party, APC having overwhelming influence in the National Assembly.

It is obvious that Saraki who rode to power via political opportunism and indiscipline has begun to realise that his party, APC, and the party leadership including the President seem to have turned their back against him despite the party’s  acceptance of his leadership of the Senate.

Like what a colleague of mine described as a ” journalists acceptance” of his leadership of the Senate by the party, Saraki had already made himself to be used not only by the PDP his former party but also by those that want to hijack the party structure ahead of 2019. Well, some say 2019 is still far but for a responsive and ambitious politician it is near and even the game has started.

The lobby by Saraki to meet with President Buhari is just like a man that has taken to fate that the deed had already being done. Saraki realisation that his desperate tendencies and conspiratorial character may not favour him at the end of the game and so he would need to quickly fix where he had caused damage before he is finally sanctioned by the party, made him to constantly seek for attention from President Buhari who is not even conscious and observance of this political dilly darling going on in the party and even at the National Assembly.

The danger ahead of President Buhari is not to make the mistake of abandoning the structure that made him to realise his long term dream of becoming the number one citizen of this country.

Although, in politics it is quite obvious that those that most often unseat a sitting government always come from the same governing party because they have the information and understand the strategy which the governing party used to unseat the former government at the poll. It will be suicidal for President Buhari to begin to perceive former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and Saraki as the closest political friends now because there antecedent is there for the old General to study him to know that the duo are creating crack in the party for him not to succeed in his administration.

I stand to be corrected that Atiku would abandon his ambition for his fellow Hausa/Fulani man most especially somebody that came to power through the strength and strong support from the well educated Southwest. If you carefully check the political history of Atiku, one would discover that Atiku is always against the position and interest of the Southwest establishment in any political system he directly or indirectly works with.

He has never had a serious working relationship politically with the Southwest without ending in discord. His relationship with his former boss, Aremu Olusegun Obasanjo became soured when he wanted to

stylishly become the President without having a cordial relationship with him. To those that still fantasy that President Buhari would not recontest in 2019 should keep their heads in a buried because the old general would, without mincing words, file out with other Presidential candidates of other political parties in 2019 to complete the Northern turn.

But his reelection might fall short of popular acceptance unlike the 2015 if he had a disconnect with the Southwest power bloc because he may not enjoy such support which he enjoys from the Southwest from his Northern oligarchists who did not initially accept his candidature in 2015.

The Northern oligarchists prefer to collaborate and throw their support behind politicians like Atiku who has both appealing support from the Northern elites and those that control the economy from all the regions of the country.

President Buhari should not allow himself to be cajoled by the Atiku and Sarakis who have the ulterior motive of unseating him in 2019 and also working assiduously to rubbish his government so that he would lose the credibility and acceptance that may aid his re- election in 2019 since they have it in mind to rule this country.

He should still keep his close contact with the Southwest to continue to ride to power in 2019 as they would still have the influence and strength that would help him to retain power beyond 2019.

The truth is that his disconnect from the Tinubu gap in the party may spell doom for him at the long run because it cannot have the loyalty of any Southwesterners like what he is enjoying from the Tinubus of this world. If he pitches tent with Atiku and Saraki to discard or rather to hijack part structure from the Tinubus he may end up regretting his political conspiracy.