2019: APC battles internal crisis

…Buhari’s chances remain bright despite loss of goodwill

The leaked audio recording which captures Chibuike Amaechi, Minister of Transportation criticising his principal, and candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the February 16 presidential election, President Muhammadu Buhari, caused a stir when it was released few days ago. It had come as a shock to many, and no doubt, it caused unease within the ruling party’s ranks.

But it would appear, going by accounts of insiders in the seat of power, that Amaechi’s criticism only portrays what has been a simmering discontent within the ruling APC. In the said audio, Amaechi was heard saying that the three years of President Buhari has brought hunger, poverty and unemployment to Nigerians.

“Three years of Buhari, everybody is crying; herdsmen are crying, farmers are crying, workers are crying, politicians are crying, students are crying. The rate of poverty is very high. Some people are hungry. Nigeria will never change,” the audio said.

“The president does not listen to anybody. He doesn’t care. You can write whatever you want to write, the president doesn’t care. Does he read? He will read and laugh and say come… come, they are abusing me here.

“In fact there was one case of somebody in Onitsha, a trader who couldn’t sell his goat during sallah, and I was with him in the plane, and the man was busy abusing Buhari, he said come, Amaechi come, what’s my business with Onitsha goat seller?”

The Minister would go on to say that Nigeria would never change and is going nowhere. His words immediately generated a storm, prompting immediate attempts by a number of the president’s and party’s spokespersons to spin it as either a Goodluck Jonathan era submission or a doctored audio by the agents of the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

When a part of the audio was first released by Reno Omokri who served as an aide to former president, Goodluck Jonathan and who has been a major critic of the Buhari government, the president’s social media assistant, Mr. Tolu Ogunlesi claimed, in a post on Twitter, that Amaechi had made the submissions in 2014 and that he was referring to the then Jonathan government, but he quickly deleted the tweet when the full audio emerged and the Minister is heard saying specifically that President Buhari’s three years in power has brought hardship and that everyone is complaining.

Notwithstanding the clarity of Amaechi’s voice, the party and indeed, the minister’s loyalists did not give up attempts to spin the narrative. Mrs. Ibim Semenitari, the Minister’s former aide who also served as Commissioner for Information under him, while admitting that the voice belonged to the Minister, insisted that the audio was twisted out of context.

“It is possible that the Honourable Minister has on some occasions, spoken about the frugality of the Buhari regime, but did so not in the context of negativity but a positive indication of a new Nigeria where pain will ultimately translate to gain,” she said.

The president’s media aide, Ogunlesi, would also subsequently attempt to spin it as a doctored audio. But it’s hardly in doubt whether the Minister said what was contained therein. Indeed, an Aso Rock source did confirm to BusinessHallmark that Amaechi’s words were reflective of the mood among some of the president’s closest men, including some ministers who the source said are praying that he doesn’t win a second term in office for fears of possible “break up” of the country or its increased polarisation, not least the growing hardships.

“Many are worried, of course, including some members of his cabinet.” the source who craved anonymity said. “They are also concerned about the way the country is going; the hardships, the security situation as well as the crass nepotism that has defined the administration.

“Again, he (Buhari) is not in charge. The ministers have little access to him. Somehow, a number of them are concerned, but no one will say so openly for obvious reasons, not least because he will likely win a second term.”

Besides anxiety over the president’s approach to governance, the APC itself is a divided house. The party is still reeling from the disagreements that trailed its primaries. In many states, those who lost out in what was a widely disputed primary elections, have refused to shield their swords, but while such crisis threaten the party’s chances in some of the states, Buhari looks poised to retain power against the odds, and in spite of the growing discontents.

Many, in places like Imo, Ogun and Ondo have left the party altogether to pursue their political ambitions in other parties. In other states like Zamfara and Rivers where the party on account of rifts, could not come up with a candidate, or held parallel primaries, it has  lost the opportunity of producing governorship candidate altogether. But the party’s crisis preceded its primaries.

Indeed, the primary crises were only offshoots of already existing tensions in various states. Tensions that had seen the party lose governors of Benue, Samuel Ortom; Sokoto, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal and Kwara, Abdulfatah Ahmed, as well as Senator Musa Kwankwaso,  Kano; Senate President, Bukola Saraki, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara and numerous other lawmakers in both chambers of the National Assembly, and yet has shown no signs of abating.

In Ondo State, the party is literally at war with itself, in what is an offshoot of the emergence of Governor Rotimi Akeredolu as its candidate for the 2016 governorship election in spite of Bola Ahmed Tinubu who had preferred Dr. Segun Abraham.

Abraham who eventually came second in the primary would reject the result, but with the party’s National Working Committee (NWC), then led by Chief John Oyegun, firmly behind Akeredolu in what was widely seen as Abuja’s attempt to undermine Tinubu, he was fighting a lost battle. Akeredolu won the governorship election. But since then, the party has remained fragmented into camps, comprising the Aketi group, the Abraham team, the Boroffice camp and a few others.

The Aketi team – made up of supporters of the governor – is of course, in charge of running the government, while the other groups seem to be more interested in working against the administration. It was therefore, unsurprising that the party held parallel congresses which turned violent during which party loyalists and journalists were attacked, at the end of which Idowu Otetubi declared himself as the state’s chairman of the party. But he was dismissed by the court which recognised Mr. Ade Adetimehin.

Things would eventually get to a head during the primary elections of late last year. It presented a opportunity for the Tinubu loyalists who had regained their footing in the party through the current chairman, Adams Oshiomhole, a Tinubu loyalist, to pay the governor back.

The Oshiomhole led NWC ensured that senators: Prof Ajayi Boroffice of Ondo North; Chief Tayo Alasoadura, Ondo Central and Pastor Yele Omogunwa, Ondo South, among others, got their tickets back, contrary to the plan of the governor who wanted his loyalists as candidates. For the senatorial seats, Akeredolu was said to have preferred Dr. Tunji Abayomi for Ondo North, Chief Tayo Alasoadura for Ondo Central and Lucky Ayedatiwa for Ondo South.

A rift between the governor and Oshiomhole followed in the aftermath of the primaries. Many of the governor’s loyalists, including Dr. Abayomi, Dr. Julius Feldar, and Stephen Olemija among others, defected to Action Alliance (AA) where they are candidates and are said to be receiving the governor’s backing.

Like Ondo, the APC is witnessing crisis of immense proportions in the neighbouring state of Ogun. The party is at the moment, enmeshed in an intractable dispute over the outcome of the governorship primary and while President Buhari’s chances may not be particularly affected, the APC’s chances of retaining the state may be dealt a huge blow.

It’s a battle between the incumbent governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun on one hand, and Tinubu and Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo on the other hand.

Amosun, determined to maintain independence from Lagos, is pushing to install Hon. Adekunle Akinlade, member of the House of Reps, as his successor. But he failed to have him elected as the party’s candidate. Instead, oil magnate, Dapo Abiodun, backed by Osinbajo and Tinubu who are looking to consolidate on their South West support base in preparation for a 2023 presidential bid, took the ticket.

Determined to have his way however, Amosun rejected Abiodun, to see to the emergence of Akinlade as governor. To actualize the script, Akinlade, with a retinue of party and state officials, moved to the Allied Peoples Movement (AMP) where he is now the governorship candidate.

Meanwhile, the governor has stayed back in the APC, from where he is allegedly funding his candidates’ campaigns in AMP.

In the North West State of Zamfara, the ruling party may have lost the state even before the polls, having failed to produce a candidate. Though the APC is very popular in the state, the current crisis rocking the party which ensured that it could not agree on a candidate before the October 7, 2018 deadline given by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has all but ensured it’s loss, given that the electoral umpire has barred it from fielding candidates for the governorship and national assembly elections.

The crisis, it would be recalled, started with Governor Abdulaziz Yari’s endorsement of the Commissioner for Finance, Alhaji Mukthar Shehu Idris, as the governorship candidate. Idris was however rejected by eight other aspirants led by Senator Kabiru Garba Marafa, the senator representing Zamfara Central, including the Defence Minister, Mansur Dan Ali.

The ensuing crisis ensured that attempts by the party to hold primary elections in the state ended in a free for all. And the factions could not agree on a consensus.

Imo, which is the only state controlled by the ruling party in the South East is also reeling from crisis. Like in Ogun, it presents a scenario where the incumbent governor, Rochas Okorocha, having lost to Senator Hope Uzodinma in the race for the party’s governorship ticket, and thus, failing in his bid to install his own candidate, who happens to be his son-in-law, Uche Nwosu, has sent his loyalists to another political party, Action Alliance (AA)

Nwosu who enjoys the governors backing is presently the candidate of AA, with Okorocha vowing to ensure his victory at the February polls. Given the nature of Imo politics, Okorocha is unlikely to succeed.

Indeed, he had since lost his popularity with the people, and now without federal backing, he is easily a toast. But his actions may ultimately ensure that the APC doesn’t retain power in the state. Indeed, the PDP and its candidate, Emeka Ihedioha, look poised to profit from the APC crisis in the state. But the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) through whose platform, Okorocha emerged governor in 2011, is also staging a strong bid with Senator Ifeanyi Ararume as candidate.

In Rivers where Senator Magnus Abe and Chibuike Amaechi-backed Tonye Cole emerged in parallel indirect and direct primaries respectively, the party presently has no candidate following the nullification of both primaries by a Federal High Court sitting in the state capital, Port Harcourt.

The court which was presided over by Justice Kolawole Omotosho had consequently restrained INEC from recognising any of the candidates, a development that could pave way for an easy victory for the incumbent governor, Nyesom Wike of the PDP.

Although the party is expected to proceed to the Appeal Court, and if necessary, the Supreme Court, it is unlikely that the issues would be resolved in time for the February election.

Kaduna State, where Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has alienated various segments of the state due to his leadership style, is another state whose future as an APC State faces a threat, although not as pronounced in Imo.

The governor has ensured that two of the three senators representing the state in the state, Shehu Sani and Suleiman Hunkuyi have both left the party for the People’s Redemption Party (PRP) and PDP respectively. Apart from the two, several aggrieved lawmakers and party faithful have defected to other parties.

But it’s El-Rufai’s choice of a Muslim running mate, Dr. Hadiza Abubakar Balarabe, in the 2019 governorship poll that has cast a huge shadow on APC’s future in the state.

With a delicate balance of Muslim North and Christian South, constituting about 60 percent and forty percent of the population respectively, Kaduna has often maintained a delicate political stability by having a Muslim governor and a Christian deputy. But it’s a balance El-Rufai is set to break. He faces a tough challenge from the PDP’s Isa Ashiru. He is likely to win, but not without a potentially bruising fight.

Apart from the above states, the future is also bleak for the APC in Kano where Kwankwaso with his massive support base has since returned to the PDP; Kogi where the current governor, Yahaya Bello, although not standing election yet, will likely be a one term governor because apart from being perceived to have performed poorly, he is a minority Ebira in a state with a vast majority of Igala where ethnicity plays key role in leadership selection.

Also the story in Plateau where attacks by herdsmen have increasingly alienated the APC and its current governor, Simon Lalong is not different.

But despite its many troubles, and the growing discontent with the Buhari government, the party seems poised to stumble to victory at the February 16 presidential polls, mainly because the opposition has failed to galvanise this discontent through an effective campaign.

The apparently smarter promoters of the president have succeeded in reducing the campaign to simply about who, between Atiku and Buhari is more corrupt, while real issues of competence and records have been largely ignored.

“If you look at what is going on, it would appear that the PDP is just unable to campaign,” said Barr Ebere Anthony, Abuja based legal practitioner. “They have allowed the APC to dictate the pace, and it’s unfortunate.”

Indeed, Buhari’s chances are being brightened increasingly by the inability of the PDP to muster strong opposition. The party seems too ill-equipped and out of depth.

Yet, it’s woes appears to have been compounded by the inability of its governors, especially in the South East, to identify properly with the presidential campaign

It’s already an open secret that the likes of Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu; Ebonyi State governor, Dave Umahi and other leaders of the zone, including Anambra governor, Willie Obiano, billionaire business man, Author Eze, are working for Buhari’s reelection. Umahi who is said to be nursing presidential ambition in 2023, allegedly sees Buhari’s reelection as a short route.

Meanwhile, Ekweremadu who remains bitter about not being chosen as the opposition party’s vice presidential candidate is said to be interested in retaining his seat as Deputy Senate President in addition to escaping harassment by the EFCC.

It has become all too obvious that the governors are not supporting the PDP presidential campaign, which in part, explains why the campaign is floundering.

Although the possible support of the South East political elite will not translate into votes from the masses, it will provide a leeway for possible interference with polls in the zone. Thus, with Buhari expected to do well in the core North and perhaps, South West, a good showing in the South East and South South will all but guarantee victory for him at the polls.