Oil markets react as Trump threatens Iran ahead of Geneva nuclear talks

Global oil prices surged on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump issued stern warnings to Iran, unsettling markets during a quiet start to the week marked by holiday closures in Asia and the United States.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.8 per cent to $63.38 per barrel, while Brent crude fell slightly to $68.23 per barrel. The moves followed earlier gains of more than one per cent for WTI.

Trump cautioned Tehran on the “consequences of not making a deal” ahead of planned talks in Geneva, continuing pressure that has included threats of military action over Iran’s handling of anti-government protests and its nuclear programme.

Market activity remained muted as major Asian exchanges—including Shanghai, Hong Kong, Taipei, Seoul, and Singapore—were closed for the extended Lunar New Year holiday. US markets also observed Presidents’ Day on Monday, reopening later Tuesday.

Precious metals fell in early trading, with gold dipping below $5,000 per ounce and silver losing three per cent.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 closed down 0.4 per cent at 56,566.49, following weak economic growth reported for Japan in Q4. Analysts at Monex brokerage noted that with the US market closed, Tokyo’s session lacked major market-moving catalysts, though a weaker yen at 152.92 per dollar could help support export-oriented stocks.

Elsewhere, Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2 per cent after BHP, the world’s largest copper producer, reported a jump in half-year net profit, driven by global demand for copper. Bangkok’s SET index climbed 0.5 per cent following the conservative Bhumjaithai Party’s recent election victory. Mumbai and Manila also saw gains, while Wellington slipped 0.5 per cent.

Investors are also keeping an eye on developments in artificial intelligence as global tech leaders gather for the AI Impact Summit in New Delhi. The five-day summit, billed as the largest edition yet, will outline a “shared roadmap for global AI governance and collaboration.” Speakers include US Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, reflecting both opportunities and concerns over AI’s societal and environmental impact.

Market highlights at 0700 GMT:

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.4% at 56,566.49

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: closed

Shanghai – Composite: closed

Dollar/yen: DOWN to 152.92 from 153.48

Euro/dollar: DOWN to $1.1844 from $1.1854

Pound/dollar: DOWN to $1.3613 from $1.3630

Euro/pound: UP to 87.01 pence from 86.98 pence

WTI crude: UP 0.8% at $63.38 per barrel

Brent crude: DOWN 0.6% at $68.23 per barrel

New York – Dow: closed

London – FTSE 100: UP 0.3% at 10,473.69

Analysts say the combination of geopolitical tension and holiday-thinned trading has heightened market sensitivity, keeping energy and technology sectors under close watch in the days ahead.