2019: States to watch; Can Kwankwanso make the difference in Kano?

Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is in charge of Atiku Abubakar’s campaign in the North-West Zone. Many political analysts see this as a wise decision considering the fact that the former Kano State governor is very popular in the North West, especially Kano the most populated northern state, with six million registered voters.

Kwankwaso is not one to shy away from speaking his mind on national issues. That was why his silence in the first two years of President Muhammadu Buhari at the helm of affairs was a source of discomfort for members of the All Progressives Congress, APC.

As a result of his disturbing silence, his name sprung up whenever and wherever analysts discussed possible defectors  from the APC.

However, he broke his silence in 2017 by declaring his intention to run for office of the president in 2019. When there was no vacancy in Aso Rock Villa, the former Kano State governor announced his defection from the APC back to the Peoples Democratic Party PDP.

Before he decamped, sources close to him revealed to BusinessHallmark that he was observing the political situation and making wide consultations. Kwankwaso’s presidential ambition dates back to 2014 when he contested against Atiku and Buhari for the presidential ticket of the APC. To many people’s surprise, Kwankwaso came second in an election touted as a contest between Buhari and Atiku.

Like Atiku, Kwankwaso was also kept at arm’s length by the President after coming to power. According to a reliable source, the reason for that was that both politicians were seen as Buhari’s main opposition within the APC.

Governor Nasir El-rufai of Kaduna State gave credence to what many perceived as the sidelining of some APC bigwigs including Kwankwaso in his letter to Buhari in 2016.

He wrote: “Mr. President, Sir your relationship with the national leadership of the party, both the formal (NWC) and informal (Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso), and former Governors of ANPP, PDP (that joined us) and ACN, is perceived by most observers to be at best frosty.

“Many of them are aggrieved due to what they consider total absence of consultations with them on your part and those you have assigned such duties.”

Before he joined the PDP, he declared his intention to run for president as a member of the APC. Going by remarks of members of the ruling party, including the past National Chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, it was evident that anyone who tried to contest against Buhari for the ticket would fail.

He contested in the PDP presidential primaries and lost. Although he lost the primaries, he has been given the task of ensuring victory for the PDP in the North West.

One of the reasons his relationship with his state governor, Abdullahi Ganduje became frosty is believed to be connected with the former governor’s presidential ambition.

Ganduje is doing all within his powers to protect the political interest of President Buhari in Kano. He was opposed to Kwankwaso’s ambition.

However political analysts see that as a move which may be detrimental to Ganduje’s re-election bid. The governor’s actions may backfire as his former boss is very popular in Kano.

Kwankwaso is a thoroughbred Kano politician. He has experience in the civil service and politics. He was the deputy speaker of the House of Representatives in 1992 and delegate to the Constitutional Conference in 1994. He first became governor in 1999 but lost reelection in 2003. The former minister of defence got back to power in 2011 with a strong political ideology anchored on the Kwankwasiyya Movement which is represented by the red cap.

Kwankwaso has strong support among the APC and PDP governors in the North. The Kwankwasiyya Ambassadors of Nigeria, though based in Kano State, is a strong political force that has its members in all parts of Nigeria.

BusinessHallmark gathered that like Buhari, Kwankwaso also has a cult-like following. Speaking with BusinessHallmark, Shamsudeen Idris who is a part of the Kwankwasiyya movement in Agege, Lagos said Kwankwaso was the reason they joined the APC and now that he has gone back to the PDP, they are left with no choice than to follow him.

“Wherever he goes, we follow,” Idris said. Asked who they are supporting for president, he said, “now that he is not the flag bearer of PDP we will support Atiku because that is what he has directed us to do. There is no Hausa/Fulani community in any part of Nigeria that does not have the Kwankwasiyya comrades. We are everywhere and in February, our impact will be felt.”

In a similar vein, a political analyst from Kano, Mr. Yunusa Bala Tafida, told Business Hallmark that, “In 2015, Buhari benefitted from Kwankwaso’s popularity in Kano. Ganduje also rode on Kwankwaso’s popularity in Kano to become governor. Without the support of Kwankwaso, there is no way he would have been governor of Kano State and Buhari would not have gotten over 1.5 million votes there.”

Ganduje was his deputy for a term. He was his deputy in 1999 to 2003 and also his deputy in 2011 to 2015. They fell out and now Kwankwaso is backing someone else for the governorship position. Alhaji Abba Kabir Yusuf of the PDP is the man that will face Ganduje in the governorship election.

Ganduje is faced with two tasks, securing victory for Buhari and also battling the Kwankwasiyyas in Kano. At this moment, he has a lot on his plate. BusinessHallmark gathered that in as much as Ganduje wants Buhari to return, he has put his ambition first which may make that of Buhari suffer in Kano.

Late last year, a video of Ganduje allegedly receiving kickback from contractors was trending on social media. The video published by Daily Nigerian, an online newspaper, showed the governor receiving bundles of dollars and putting them into his white dress known as ‘babanriga’ in the northern part of Nigeria.

According to the newspaper, the governor had requested for $5 million from the contractors who recorded the video while handling part of the payment to him.

Since the video surfaced online, it has generated a lot of reactions from Nigerians with some saying it is a dent on President Buhari’s corruption agenda since the governor is a member of the ruling party.

Fingers were pointed at his former boss, Kwankwaso for his ordeal. Kwankwaso himself denied involvement in the alleged bribe video.

“I was aware of the video clips before they were released to the public and I pleaded that they should not be released, but they didn’t listen to me.

“I am not happy that the video clips were made public because it is an embarrassment to the state and its people, including myself.”

In what seems like retaliation on the part of Ganduje, last week Thursday, he revealed that his predecessor, Kwankwaso, used money meant for road project to fund his presidential campaign in 2015.

While revealing what transpired, the Kano State governor, who was a former deputy to Kwankwaso, said, “I was the deputy governor when the project was conceived. Ninety per cent of the total sum of the contract was provided by 44 local governments while the remaining 10 per cent was provided by the state government.

“However, Kwankwaso collected the 90 per cent from the 44 local governments, paid the mobilization fee and funded his presidential campaign with the remaining balance. The Kwankwasiyya people have started campaigning with the 5km road project, but I will expose them.”

Will this allegation have any effect on kwankwaso’s popularity? Many analysts do not think so as his loyalists have made up their minds to go his way.

Kwankwaso’s political influence in northern Nigeria cannot be taken for granted or shoved aside. Whatever he does had been carefully planned. He was one of the five governors that defected from PDP to the APC in 2013. That move destabilized the PDP.

Today, his moves may also destabilize the APC considering his popularity in the North.

Political analysts may disagree on many issues, but one thing they all agree on is that with Kwakwanso on Atiku’s side, it is impossible for Buhari to get 1.9 million votes in Kano the way he did in 2015.

Kwankwaso often claims credit for helping the president secure 1.9 million votes in the state in 2015. Although Buhari had always been popular as far as this North West state is concerned, he never got as many as 1.9 million votes in the state until 2015 when he had the support of Kwankwaso.